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Silver is only one breath away from $44

Wonderful introduction:

Without the depth of the blue sky, there can be the elegance of white clouds; without the magnificence of the sea, there can be the elegance of the stream; without the fragrance of the wilderness, there can be the emerald green of the grass. There is no seat for bystanders in life, we can always find our own position, our own light source, and our own voice.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】: Silver is only one breath away from 44 US dollars." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Monday (September 22), spot silver fluctuated around a high of $43.5/ounce, continuing the strength of last week during the session, just one step away from the high of $43.782/ounce. Against the backdrop of a "14-year high", bulls and bears entered the sensitive game zone. In contrast, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to rise above 4.15% after three consecutive increases; last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market www.xmtraders.committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, and hinted through a dot chart that the year-end interest rate may point to 3.6%. The US dollar index (DXY) hovers around 97.50, and the curve is generally soft, providing marginal support for precious metals, including silver.

Intensive macro-catalysis followed this week: Powell spoke at the Economic Outlook luncheon on Tuesday, S&PGlobal September PMI initial value, annualized GDP and durable goods orders and initial requests for the second quarter, and core PCE finale on Friday; in addition, digital FOMC officials (including Stephen Miran, who last advocated a 50bp rate cut), will explain the voice one after another, and the narrative is expected to affect the rhythm and volatility of silver.

Fundamentals: Positive feedback is still there, but marginally passivated

Interest rate expectations - FOMC has cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00%-4.25%, and released guidance for further easing this year. The dot matrix graph's 3.6% direction at the end of the year is equivalent to "path-based deceleration", which continues to pull down the holding cost of interest-free assets, forming a structural support for silver.

Rate of return and real interest rate—The 10-year rate of return continues to rise above 4.15%, which means real interestThe rate is difficult to increase significantly. For non-interest-bearing assets, this is classic positive elasticity: each drop in yield amplifies the marginal attraction of silver.

The US dollar and cross-asset hedge - DXY is nearly 97.50 and the US bond curve is calming. Coupled with the "equity market" turning around at a high level and gold hits a new high, silver prices benefit from cross-asset hedging demand.

Catalization this week - If Powell confirms that the tone of "inflation is higher than 2%, employment slowdown" remains unchanged and the core PCE is stable and slower, the interest rate path will further anchor the framework of "decline as the main and stability as the auxiliary"; on the contrary, if the data is unexpectedly hot, the technical pullback of yields will bring short-term pullback pressure to silver.

In terms of risk - FOMC's internal interest rate cut is not a solid piece. Miran once voted for 50bp. If dovish expectations are "corrected", silver will easily experience a "buy expectations and sell facts" sentiment decline.

Technical surface:

Daily K-line chart shows that the diameter of the Bollinger band has expanded significantly, with the middle rail 40.427, the upper rail 43.971, and the lower rail 36.883; the price follows the upper rail line, continuing the typical upward channel sprint section. The short-term high point 43.782 and the upper rail 43.971 form a first-order resistance zone. Once the volume is effectively broken, the potential static resistance of 44.8 is paid above; if it rises and falls back, the Bollinger middle rail 40.427 is dynamic support, and then the lower is 37.943 and 36.883.

MACD is located above the zero axis, DIFF=1.124, DEA=1.001, and the bar chart 0.247 is positive, which is a continuation of momentum after the "golden cross diffusion"; but the latest cylinders have signs of shortening, indicating that the kinetic energy is marginally passivated. If there is a subsequent top divergence, there is a probability of triggering the back-testing of the middle orbit.

In the K-line pattern, after multiple physical positive lines push up, if the upper shadow line is closed in the range 43.782-43.971 or the cross star/meteor line appears, you need to be wary of false breakthroughs; on the contrary, if the volume breaks through and "walking" with the outer edge of the upper track, you will enter the acceleration section of "high winds and high waves", and the retracement range will increase accordingly - this is a typical side effect of Bollinger bandwidth expansion.

Prevention of market sentiment: The pull of strong trends and high volatility

Silver is in the dominant stage of long market sentiment:

Expected level: The progress of interest rate cuts and the limited yield narrative provides the underlying fuel for "momentum investment", and the psychological delay pushes up the demand for "chasing the rise".

Cross-asset feedback: After gold hits a record high, the "funding of funds" in precious metal baskets form a volume-energy leading position on silver prices; but if US Treasury yields rise through 4.15% due to the rebound of data and stand firm, the US dollar may also rebound from around 97.50. At that time, silver's "reflexiveness" may accelerate in reverse (chasing the rise when it rises, and stopping the profit and selling pressure concentrates when it falls), triggering short-term squeeze.

Group psychology: From the perspective of fear and greed, it is now closer to the "greed-high temperature segment". This does not mean that the trend ends immediately, but it means risk/receivedThe profit ratio begins to deteriorate, and the market's sensitivity to bad news increases.

Conclusion

Silver is currently standing at the intersection of trend acceleration and momentum passivation: on the fundamentals, the interest rate cut path and the limited yield are still long fuel; on the technical side, the K-line runs along the upper rail of 43.971, but the marginal decline of RSI temperature and MACD kinetic energy indicate that there is no shortage of volatility retracement in the short term. In the event window where intensive data speaks with officials, the price is likely to choose one of the two directions at the 43.782-43.971 line: if the upward breaks, the impact will be 44.8, and if the downward falls, the backtest will be 42.5/40.427. In the medium term, as long as 40.427 is not falling below the weekly level in large volume, the upward trend will still prevail, but the importance of capital management and risk budgeting will also increase.

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Silver is only one breath away from $44

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