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More than a dozen officials took turns to fight. Can the euro/dollar stand firm at 1.17?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: More than ten officials take turns to take turns, can the euro/dollar stand firm at 1.17?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Monday (September 22), the euro rebounded from a low of 1.1730, and traded around 1.1770 during the European period, temporarily ending three consecutive declines, but the rebound momentum is weak. The current focus is on intensive speeches by Fed officials and repricing ahead of key European and American data tomorrow.

Brands: The Federal Reserve's intensive speeches are intertwined with European policy signals, and short-term drives are biased against the "news market".

This week, the market ushered in a "speech bombardment" - more than ten Federal Reserve officials will appear one after another to explain their respective policy orientations. The new director Stephen Miran will make his debut on Monday. He previously had a disagreement with most of the www.xmtraders.committee's opinions on the "extraordinary significant interest rate cut" in his interest rate settlement last week. The market will use his speech to test whether this "double strange voice" is a one-time expression of the position or is it a forward-looking and guiding significance for the subsequent path. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver an economic outlook speech at the Providence Chamber of www.xmtraders.commerce, expected to emphasize a policy framework of "cautious advancement". At the same time, interest rate futures prices are included in the market consensus of a rate cut for the remaining two meetings this year. If Powell's speech is more stable than catering to this pricing, the US dollar's defensive rebound space is still there.

However, the euro is not without reliance: rating agency Fitch raised its sovereignty rating to BBB+ for the first time in four years last week, citing improvements in political stability and convergence in deficits, which constitute moderate support for external credit spreads and indirectly benefit euro assets and exchange rates. At the same time, the European Central Bank's caliber is still distinct: the vice president and some directors pointed out that "there is no need to rush to cut further interest rates", which is a hedge against the previous voices that hold more dovish tendencies.This marginally raises the euro's policy spread support. Immediately following, the euro zone consumer confidence and the initial value of manufacturing/service industry PMI on Tuesday will provide an immediate physical examination of economic momentum. If the resilience of the service industry continues and there are signs of stabilization on the manufacturing end, the elasticity below the euro is expected to narrow; on the contrary, if the data confirms that the expansion momentum is passivated again, the US dollar will still dominate under the www.xmtraders.combination of "relative advantage of growth + interest rate spreads still have a premium".

Technical aspect:

Daily chart shows that the middle rail of the Bollinger band is located at 1.1703, the upper rail is at 1.1831, and the lower rail is at 1.1574. The current price is 1.1765, which runs above the middle rail but there is still a gap from the upper rail, indicating that the rebound is still in the "repair range" and has not triggered the out-of-band advancement of a strong trend. Recently, the upper and lower shadows of the K-line alternate, reflecting the repeated game between the bulls and bears between the upper and middle tracks; the previous high of 1.1918 is still a phased ceiling, and if there is no increase in volume (coordination of price and volume) above it expands simultaneously with the Bollinger band bandwidth, it is easy to see a "upward and fallback" structure of retreat after a false breakthrough.

In terms of kinetic energy indicators, the DIFF of MACD is 0.0035, the DEA is 0.0031, and the columnar value is about 0.0007. It is slightly on the zero axis but the amplitude is limited. It belongs to the "lateral passivation after a mild golden cross" state - the positive pull on the price is not strong, and it is more like the inertial extension of a technical rebound rather than a trend push. The relative strength index RSI (14) was 54.6283, just around the neutral watershed 50, indicating that the bulls have limited advantages, and there is no overbought, nor does it provide evidence of top divergence for the bears.

In terms of price reference, the low point 1.1391 and the previous support 1.1445 form the "static support cluster" in the mid-term bottom area, while there is a "dynamic + static resistance band" superimposed by 1.1831 (Boletree upper rail) and 1.1918 (front high). If the subsequent price is valid backtested and confirmed in the 1.1703 middle rail and re-points to the upper rail, and the MACD column turns red and expands and the RSI pushes up to the range 60-65, it can be regarded as the prelude of the second impact of the bulls against the upper edge; on the contrary, once the closing falls below the middle rail and the Bollinger band center axis turns downward, the bears will be expected to test the 1.1574 lower rail. At that time, we need to be wary of the inertial chain of "the middle rail is lost - the lower rail is back-compensated".

Prevention of market sentiment: "high-frequency timing" mainly focused on caution has greater elasticity to news

From the linkage between options mentality and market performance, the current range market is more like a "message-driven-price constraint":

The US dollar narrative still prevails: before the "relative pricing of growth and interest rate spreads" was significantly rewritten by the Federal Reserve, the market tended to hedge risks at highs during the euro rebound, resulting in weak rise in exchange rates and rapid retracement.

The European fundamentals are slightly hedged: Italy's rating upgrade reduces the risk of the tail of the peripheral credit, and the European Central Bank's internal caliber of "no rush to lower again" has also weakened the script of "continuous easing", and emotionally provides the euro with a "defensive pad".

Trader structure is short-term: intensive official speeches and POn the eve of MI, liquidity is relatively cautious, and quantitative and high-frequency disks are more inclined to "mean regression" and "swing trading around the middle track", which will amplify the tug-of-war around the middle track of the Bollinger band and at the same time lower the winning rate of trend trading. Overall, market consensus has not tilted extremely in either direction, and the reverse indicator has not triggered an alarm for "emotion overheating".

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More than a dozen officials took turns to fight. Can the euro/dollar stand firm at 1.17?

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More than a dozen officials took turns to fight. Can the euro/dollar stand firm at 1.17?

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