Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason

We offer a superior trading environment that puts traders in the best position to profit.

Get a 50% Bonus up to $250 *Limited-Time Offer

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

EURUSD

Euro vs U.S. Dollar

US500

S&P 500 (US500)

GOLD

Gold

COFFEE

US Coffee

Apple

Apple (AAPL.OQ)

Finance Magnates 颁发
Finance Magnates 颁发
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
COLWMA 2024年颁赠
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
FX168于2020年12月颁赠
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
2017年伦敦财富管理奖
2016最佳本土客户服务
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
投查查于2024年颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
World Finance 2021颁发
World Finance 2021颁发
FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
FinTech Age Awards颁发
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
2016年最佳黄金经纪商
2016年最佳外汇经纪商
2015年最佳本地客户服务
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
2015最佳外汇交易平台
2015最佳金融交易平台
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
金融行业的佼佼者
认证最优金牌级别
2014年首届亚军
Finance Magnates 颁发
Finance Magnates 颁发
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
COLWMA 2024年颁赠
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
FX168于2020年12月颁赠
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
2017年伦敦财富管理奖
2016最佳本土客户服务
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
投查查于2024年颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
World Finance 2021颁发
World Finance 2021颁发
FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
FinTech Age Awards颁发
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
2016年最佳黄金经纪商
2016年最佳外汇经纪商
2015年最佳本地客户服务
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
2015最佳外汇交易平台
2015最佳金融交易平台
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
金融行业的佼佼者
认证最优金牌级别
2014年首届亚军
Finance Magnates 颁发
Finance Magnates 颁发
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
COLWMA 2024年颁赠
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
FX168于2020年12月颁赠
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
2017年伦敦财富管理奖
2016最佳本土客户服务
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
投查查于2024年颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
World Finance 2021颁发
World Finance 2021颁发
FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
FinTech Age Awards颁发
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
2016年最佳黄金经纪商
2016年最佳外汇经纪商
2015年最佳本地客户服务
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
2015最佳外汇交易平台
2015最佳金融交易平台
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
金融行业的佼佼者
认证最优金牌级别
2014年首届亚军
Finance Magnates 颁发
Finance Magnates 颁发
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
COLWMA 2024年颁赠
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
FX168于2020年12月颁赠
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
2017年伦敦财富管理奖
2016最佳本土客户服务
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
投查查于2024年颁赠
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
World Finance 2021颁发
World Finance 2021颁发
FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
FinTech Age Awards颁发
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
2016年最佳黄金经纪商
2016年最佳外汇经纪商
2015年最佳本地客户服务
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
2015最佳外汇交易平台
2015最佳金融交易平台
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
金融行业的佼佼者
认证最优金牌级别
2014年首届亚军

Awarded BestBrokerYear After Year

location: Home > News > market analysis

XM Forex Trading Platform

News

market analysis

What will happen next for the US dollar? The real script is hidden in US debt!

Wonderful Introduction:

Only by setting off can you reach your ideals and destinations, only by working hard can you achieve brilliant success, and only by sowing can you gain. Only by pursuing can one taste a dignified person.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: What will the next step for the US dollar? The real script is hidden in US debt!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Monday (September 22), Beijing time, the US dollar index continued its decline last Friday, showing initial weakness in bull momentum. During the same period, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood above 4.131, up 0.05% during the day, stabilizing its position above the middle track of the Bollinger Band, reflecting the market's expectations for the continued high interest rates are becoming clearer. Overall, the stabilization of US Treasury yields provides potential support for the US dollar, but in the short term, the US dollar index is still subject to the resistance of the previous high point, showing signs of a volatile retracement.

Under this background, the U.S. bond financing environment has tightened, with the general collateral repurchase rate (GC) opening at 4.17%, 2 basis points lower than the closing of the previous trading day, showing that overnight funds are hovering at the upper side of the 4.00%-4.25% corridor. Although GSE capital inflows pressured the interest rate to decline, long positions dominated the absorption of most liquidity and avoided a sharp decline. Currently, the market focus is on this week's T-bill auction and Fed officials' statements, which are expected to further amplify the linkage effect between US bonds and the US dollar.

U.S. Treasury yield trend: Rebound support from fundamentals continues

The slight increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on the day is not an isolated event, but a www.xmtraders.combined result of recent economic data and policy expectations. From a fundamental perspective, strong employment and inflation indicators continue to strengthen market confidence in the Fed's continued high interest rates for longer. Although the employment data released last week fluctuated, it overall reversed the illusion of previous fraud interference. The number of initial unemployment benefits requested fell from 247,000 in the previous week to 231,000, the largest decline in four years, which directly pushed the yield from a low of 4.045 to form a V-shaped reversal.

The well-known institutions analyzed that this rebound logic originated from the Federal Reserve's "risk management-style" reductionIn the interest rate path, Chairman Powell extinguished the market's fantasy of aggressive interest rate cuts in his latest statement, emphasizing the dual balance between upward inflation risk and downward pressure on employment, which led to pressure on US Treasury prices, and yields recorded their first week since mid-August to 4.12%. This view echoes the consensus of traders. A private equity fund manager pointed out that this year's interest rate cut is different from the inflationary peak scenario in September last year, when the yield soared from 3.6% to nearly 4.8%. Now the employment priority positioning allows long-term interest rates to maintain a safety cushion. The 20-year yield is close to 4.1%, which is almost flush with the federal funds rate, avoiding an out-of-control upward trend.

The financing side data further confirms this resilience. The general collateral repurchase (GC) interest rate fluctuated narrowly around 4.17%, 2 basis points lower than the previous trading day, but the long-dominated cash absorption limits the downside space, and the trading range is expected to remain at 4.17%-4.12%. Reverse repurchase operation (RRP) results show that demand reached US$13.71 billion on September 18, and fell to US$11.36 billion on the 19th. The participating institutions remained stable at 13, and the GC interest rate remained stable at 4.17% during the same period. The current repo premium rose to 34 basis points before the 5-year auction and reached 22 basis points through the GC channel, while the short positions of 20-year bonds increased, pushing the premium to 81 basis points, and demand may continue until September 30 settlement.

Merge loan-backed securities (MBS) financing is 3 basis points higher than GC and 3 basis points tighter than the previous trading day, indicating that although liquidity has been injected with GSE funds, it is still tight overall. LSEG data shows that the probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points for federal funds futures pricing in October is 92%, and the short-term OIS (0x3) is 3.906%, 23.4 basis points lower than the SOFR setting, implicitly 94% interest rate cut; SOFR futures are mixed, white contracts remain unchanged, and red, green and blue contracts are moved up by 2 basis points.

A macro observer emphasized that Powell's remarks highlight the independence of the Federal Reserve, and internal differences aggravate uncertainty, but this instead strengthens the multi-public pattern of yields. In the short term, PCE and CPI will become catalysts. If the production side PPI continues to turn negative (-0.1%) month-on-month, it will further support the rebound; on the contrary, fluctuations in energy prices may trigger pullback pressure. Overall, the upward trend and fundamentals of US Treasury yields are mutually verified and have a solid foundation. Especially at the moment when the unemployment rate is placed in a priority position, market expectations have become more restrained, and the long-term safety cushion is gradually emerging.

The technical structure of the US dollar index: the momentum test under the resistance range

The intraday decline of the US dollar index pulled the price back above the Bollinger band's middle track 97.3414, continuing the rebound after hitting the low point of 96.2109. Judging from the technical structure of the 240-minute chart, the index was blocked near the previous high of 97.8179 and failed to effectively break through the resistance range of 97.8290-97.8179, indicating that the bulls' momentum gradually contracted. MACD index DIFF line (0.1051) and DEA line (0.0759) Maintaining the golden cross upward, the DIFF-DEA difference is 0.0292, indicating that the bulls still have strength, but the bar chart energy is gradually shrinking, suggesting that the upward momentum is weakening. This pattern is in contrast to the slight increase in US Treasury yields, which are arranged in golden crosses by MACDDIFF (0.021) and DEA (0.019), and continue above the zero axis of the bar chart, with strong kinetic energy.

The fundamentals supporting the US dollar's recent rebound are mainly due to the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve and expectations of economic resilience, but concerns about slowing global growth and the differences in the path of interest rate hikes are being put into place. Traders' views show that the weakening of the US dollar index this year is divided into three stages: concerns about layoffs in January-March have led to a warming of recession expectations; policy uncertainty in March-June and capital outflows; and expectations of interest rate cuts have fallen after rebounding from the end of June to the present. An investor pointed out that the US dollar index may rebound in a turning point after the interest rate cut. The logic is that the stabilization of fundamentals drives the strengthening of popularity, similar to the three consecutive rebounds in September 2024 after the three interest rate cuts.

In terms of technical forecast, the resistance range is locked at 97.8179-97.9906, the former is the previous high point, and the latter is the overlap of the upper rail of the Bollinger band. The bulls need to stand firm above 97.8290 before they can open upward space. The support range is 97.2467-97.3414, and the front low intersects with the middle rail, providing a key buffer. If the MACD energy column continues to shrink or appears a dead cross, the callback risk will be amplified, and 97.2467 may be tested. During the session, we need to be vigilant about the impact of speeches by Federal Reserve officials and economic data, and the technical forms are susceptible to fundamental disturbances. A trader observed that the weekly line of the US dollar index fell to 97.65, showing signs of bottoming out, but the yield on US Treasury is not lower than the high level, and demand for the US dollar rebound is gradually emerging. This is in line with overnight headlines, with well-known institutions warning that the US dollar is slightly overvalued this year and may undervalue next year triggering volatility, stemming from debt pressure and policy uncertainty.

The dynamics of US Treasury yields are directly transmitted to the US dollar: the upward yield usually strengthens the attractiveness of the US dollar, especially at a time when the probability of OIS pricing cuts is high, capital flows back to US Treasury will support the stabilization of the US dollar index. On the contrary, if the yield pulls back to 4.102 support, the US dollar may further retrace the middle track, testing the resilience of the bulls. Currently, after beta-adjusted 2s/5s curve slope, the 5-year yield is 3.4 basis points cheaper than the 2-year period, or 2.0 standard deviation, implying that the steepening of the curve may amplify US dollar fluctuations.

Performance of the next 2-3 days

Looking forward, the U.S. Treasury yield is expected to continue to be more bullish in the range of 4.131-4.149. If the previous high of 4.149 and stand firm, it will test the Bollinger band's upper track of 4.181, and even challenge the historical high of 4.362, provided that MACD has no top divergence signal and the long energy column does not shrink. Support level 4.045-4.102 will provide a buffer, especially before and after the T-bill auction in March and June this week (non-bidding, 11:00 Beijing time, 11:30 Beijing time), liquidity injection may be temporarily suspended. Fed officials' speeches and PCE/CPI data willIt is the key. If the employment data continues to be strong, the yield may accelerate the rebound and strengthen high interest rate expectations.

The US dollar index faces the resistance test of 97.8179-97.9906. If the momentum is exhausted, it will fall back to the 97.3414 middle track, or even the lowest level before 97.2467, with a short-term oscillation range of 97.2467-97.8290. The upward trend of US Treasury yields will become a support factor for the US dollar. It is expected that if the yield reaches 4.149, the probability of the US dollar index rebounding will rise to more than 60%, and the 98 mark will be tested; otherwise, the pullback will be below 4.102, and the US dollar may fall to 97.20. Consensus shows that under Powell's cautious path, signs of a dollar bottoming out gradually become clear, but geopolitical uncertainty and global cycle are misaligned, which will amplify fluctuations. In the overall market, US bonds dominate the US dollar's linkage, and the strong yield pattern may dominate the US dollar's stabilization and rise, beware of the rapid turnaround catalysis under data catalysis.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: What will the next step for the US dollar? The real script is hidden in US debt!", which was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

Life in the present, don’t waste your current life in missing the past or looking forward to the future.

Unless otherwise specified, all articles are original creations of this websiteIf reproduced, please indicate the source: XM Forex

Article address:https://www.xmtraders.com/en/news/42242.html

Previous：Silver is only one breath away from $44 Next：From "cautious interest rate cuts" to "trend crowning", the mid-term script has been written

Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.

All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.

All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

What will happen next for the US dollar? The real script is hidden in US debt!

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

What will happen next for the US dollar? The real script is hidden in US debt!

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason