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The Australian dollar has four major culprits in three consecutive declines. Maybe there is a chance to buy at the bottom?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The Australian dollar has hidden four major culprits in three consecutive declines. Maybe there is a chance to buy at the bottom here?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday, the Australian dollar broke out on the bottoming and rebounded against the US dollar, and fell to 0.6587 for a while during the session. It is currently trading at 0.6601 (-0.15%), rebounding 14 points. The Australian dollar fell after the U.S. released data on Thursday on the number of people applying for first weekly unemployment benefits, and the Australian dollar gained support. The Australian dollar expanded its decline for the third consecutive trading day, and there are four major culprits. At the same time, www.xmtraders.combined with the firm rhetoric of the RBA, there may be a good opportunity to buy at the bottom after the decline.

The Federal Reserve hawks cut interest rates to suppress other currencies

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first rate cut this year, and suggested another 50 basis points will be cut by the end of the year, slightly higher than the June forecast.

Federal Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that this was a hawkish rate cut, and signs of weak labor markets are becoming increasingly obvious, which is also the reason why officials decided to cut interest rates, but the decline in inflation burden and the Fed's optimism about future employment have made this rate cut interpreted as a hawkish rate cut. The latest Fed rate resolution dot chart shows that there is even a Federal Reserve member who believes that October should add the 25 basis points of the September cut in October.

Soft data on unemployment benefits have pushed the U.S. dollar up

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's exchange rate against six major currencies, is currently continuing to rise, trading around 97.52 (0.17%) as of press time.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced Thursday that the number of first-time unemployment benefits applied for the week ended September 13 fell to 231,000. This latest data is lower than the initial estimate of 240,000 people, and also lower than the revised 264,000 people the previous week (the original data is 263,000). at the same time,As of the week ending September 6, the number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 to 1.92 million. This weakens the urgency of the Fed to continue to cut interest rates.

Australia employment report dragged down the Australian dollar

The Australian dollar was also dragged down by a lower-than-expected employment report released on September 18. The report shows that Australia's seasonally adjusted employment in August changed to 5,400, and the July data was revised to 26,500, while the market generally expected an increase of 22,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in August remained stable at 4.2% as expected.

The Australian dollar is subject to its www.xmtraders.commodity monetary attributes

Australia is the global core www.xmtraders.commodity exporter (iron ore, coal, natural gas, etc. account for more than 50% of exports), and the Australian dollar exchange rate is highly positively correlated with www.xmtraders.commodity prices. Affected by the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cuts, the market expressed concerns about whether the Federal Reserve will open the door to cut interest rates in the future, causing the overall price of www.xmtraders.commodities to fall, drag down the Australian dollar exchange rate.

Future Outlook:

It is worth mentioning that since the market currently expects the probability of the RBA rate cut in September is only 20%, as the possibility of the RBA further cuts gradually decreases, the Australian dollar may gain support. Currently, the market expects that the probability of a rate cut in September is only 20%, and the probability of a rate cut in November is 70%. The inflation rate continues to be higher than the target level, so policy makers are cautious.

RBA assistant governor Sarah Hunter said on Tuesday that the central bank is "close to achieve inflation targets." Hunter pointed out that the risks of future prospects are in a balanced state and emphasized that given the lagging effect of monetary policy, forward-looking policy practices are needed. She also added that the RBA is closely watching the inherent vitality of consumer spending and striving to keep the economy close to full employment.

In view of the difficulty of overturning the weak trend of the US job market in October, www.xmtraders.commodities are accompanied by the general background of global economic recovery, www.xmtraders.combined with the firm attitude of the RBA, it is speculated that the Australian dollar may be expected to recover lost territory, and this may be a good opportunity to buy at the bottom.

Technical analysis:

After falling below the 9-day index moving average, the Australian dollar fell to around the 0.6600 mark.

On Friday, the Australian dollar traded around 0.6610. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair remains in the upward channel, strengthening the bullish tendency. However, short-term price momentum has weakened and the price has fallen below the 9-day EMA moving average.

The initial support level of the Australian dollar-USD exchange rate may be seen in the middle of the upward channel, about 0.6595. If it falls below this channel, it will weaken the bullish tendency and push the pair to test the 50-day EMA, which is located near 0.6546.

In the upward trend, the Australian dollar-USD exchange rate target may point to the 9-day index moving average, that is, around 0.6622. If this level is exceeded, short-term price momentum will improve, which is expected to push the pair to approach the 11-month high of 0.6706, set on September 17.The upward track will then be challenged, which is about 0.6710.

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The Australian dollar has four major culprits in three consecutive declines. Maybe there is a chance to buy at the bottom?

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The Australian dollar has four major culprits in three consecutive declines. Maybe there is a chance to buy at the bottom?

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