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The U.S. dollar index rebounds to 100, Iran refuses to cease fire, and a major inflation week is coming
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The U.S. dollar index rebounded to 100, Iran refused to cease fire, and a heavy inflation week is www.xmtraders.coming." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The U.S. dollar index fluctuated slightly in Asian trading on Tuesday, but the U.S. dollar index held steady on Monday as traders weighed escalating tensions in Iran against hopes for a ceasefire ahead of Trump's latest deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatened in an Easter Sunday post to hit Iranian power plants and bridges if the strait was not reopened, but media said negotiators were making a last-ditch effort and investors were assessing the possibility of a ceasefire.
Analysis of major currency trends
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index is hovering around 100.02. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) struggled to contain its downward momentum near the 100.00 mark on Monday. After a day of volatility, the index fell from an overnight high of nearly 100.30 to an intraday low of about 99.75, and then rebounded in the evening. The 200-period moving average on the intraday chart limited the rebound, with prices eventually stabilizing around 100.00. The dollar's intraday weakness coincided with the overall risk-on mood in equities, with traders initially weighing the possibility of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, although that optimism failed to sustain.



1. Iran launched a ten-point peace roadmap to lift the blockade in exchange for an armistice
According to Iranian official media reports, Iran submitted a ten-point proposal on Monday aimed at ending the conflict with the United States and Israel. The package was conveyed by Pakistan, the main mediator, but it appeared difficult to resolve core differences before Trump's Tuesday night deadline for launching a new round of strikes against Iran. Senior Iranian officials said the proposals include guarantees that Iran will not be attacked again, an end to Israel's attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a www.xmtraders.complete lifting of sanctions. In exchange, Iran will lift its de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and charge about $2 million for each passing ship, split with Oman across the strait. Iran will use its share of the proceeds to rebuild destroyed infrastructure rather than seek direct www.xmtraders.compensation. Iranian state media said the proposed text "rejects a ceasefire" and emphasizes "the need to permanently end the war in accordance with Iran's demands." The media also stated that Iran has "demonstrated its superior position in the war." After blocking the Strait of Hormuz and shooting down a US F-15E fighter jet, Iranian leaders are said to have gained confidence. Although state media did not publish the full text of the proposal, they said it included an agreement on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's demands for the lifting of sanctions, rebuilding infrastructure and an end to regional hostilities. Previously, the United States submitted a 15-point ceasefire proposal through Pakistan on March 24, but it was rejected by Iran. Iran later submitted a counter-proposal, parts of which were reiterated in Monday's package.
2. Trump proposed to seize oil and strait tolls: "The spoils belong to the victor"
U.S. President Trump proposed an idea at a press conference on Monday that the United States could control the passage of the Sea of HormuzThere is a fee for boats in the gorge. When asked about Iran's plan to collect tolls from passing ships, Trump responded: "Why don't we collect it? We are the winners. We won. Okay? They have been defeated militarily." Trump also regards himself as a businessman and talks about taking over Iran's oil once the conflict is resolved. He said: "The spoils belong to the victor."
3. Trump said that Iran will lose nothing if it refuses to surrender
On April 6, US President Trump told the media about Iran when attending an event at the White House that Tuesday, Eastern Time (April 7) is the deadline and "cannot be changed." Trump once again emphasized that "Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons", saying that during his first term, he tore up the www.xmtraders.comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue and assassinated Soleimani, the then www.xmtraders.commander of the "Quds Force" affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, "thus preventing Israel from being wiped off the map." Trump insisted that "regime change" had been achieved in Iran, saying the Iranian leadership now negotiating with the United States was "more reasonable." But he also said that "they (Iran) just refuse to admit defeat, but they will eventually give in - if they don't give in, they will have nothing." Trump also said that if he was given a choice, he would "take away (Iran's) oil" because "the oil is readily available and they (Iran) can't do anything about it." Trump said, "Unfortunately, the American people want us to go home - if it were up to me, I would take away the oil, I would keep the oil for myself, and I would make a lot of money." When asked by a reporter, "Why is the war still going on since the U.S. has repeatedly claimed that Iran's military power has been destroyed?" Trump said, "They (Iran) still have some missiles, and some drones. They were lucky, they shot down one. "
4. The Bank of France emptied its gold reserves in the United States and made a profit of 12.8 billion euros in Europe
According to French media reports, between July 2025 and January 2026, the Bank of France made a capital gain of 12.8 billion euros by selling the last 129 tons of gold stored in the United States and purchasing the same amount of gold in Europe. Currently, all of France's gold reserves have been shipped back to Paris for storage. Since 2005, the Bank of France has been gradually replacing old non-standard gold bars with bars that meet modern international standards. This time, the bank did not choose to refine and transport the gold in the United States. Instead, it sold it directly and made huge profits through 26 transactions while the gold price was high. France's central bank governor Villeroy insists the decision to move French gold out of the United States is not politically motivated. He said this is mainly because the European market trades higher standards of gold and it is more convenient to buy new gold than to refine existing stocks.
5. Two Fed officials warned that the inflation situation is severe and "may even be worse"
As the Iran war has pushed up energy prices and the job market remains sluggish, both Fed Hammaker and Goolsby believe that inflation is more serious than employment problems, suggesting that they support tight rather than loose monetary policy. In an interview, the two were asked to use colorto assess the economic situation, from red for “burning urgently” to green for “all goes well”. "At least it's orange. It's not looking good," Goolsby said of the outlook for inflation. "I was optimistic that we would get back to the 2% inflation target, but alas, things have taken a nosedive recently." Hammaker is also worried about inflation. She pointed out that inflation has been above target for five consecutive years and has been "basically sideways" in the past two years. "It is definitely a brighter, brighter orange now." On the employment front, Hammaker said she is optimistic about the outlook, maybe yellow-green. Goolsby rated the labor market "yellow."
Institutional Views
1. JPMorgan Chase Dimon: The credit cycle weakens and losses may exceed expectations, criticizing U.S. regulatory rules as "ridiculous"
JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon said that the US$1.8 trillion private credit market is relatively small. But he warned that once the credit cycle weakens, losses on all leveraged loans will be higher than expected because credit standards have weakened modestly across the board. Private credit also tends not to have a high degree of transparency or strict valuation loan "marks," which increases the likelihood of investors selling if they think conditions will worsen. In the letter, Dimon also slammed revised capital rules proposed by U.S. bank regulators last month, denouncing some aspects as still "making no sense." JPMorgan is one of the banks pushing to water down the 2023 draft of the so-called Basel III and GSIB (global systemically important bank surcharge rules) rules. But Dimon said on Monday the proposals were still "riddled with holes" and added that JPMorgan's global systemically important bank surcharge - an additional layer of capital held by such banks - would only drop to 5.0%, which he said was "ridiculous" and "un-American" as a punishment for its success.
2. Institutions: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market
According to Oxford Economics, U.S. employment statistics in March greatly overestimated the strength of the pre-war job market because the data reflected a decline in both the labor force and household employment. Job growth will slow as the Iran war takes its toll on real economic activity. The impact of the war on inflation was immediate, but the negative impact on consumer spending, business investment and hiring will become more apparent in the www.xmtraders.coming months. Oxford Economics' baseline forecast remains that the Fed will ignore the one-time hit from higher oil prices this year and cut interest rates twice this year to guard against any future weakness in the labor market.
3. Market analysis: The sharp increase in non-farm payrolls alleviates concerns about the job market, and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance is expected to continue
Jerry Tempelman, vice president of economics and fixed income research at Mutual of America Capital Management, said: The market is paying attention to the March non-farm payrolls report to verify the stability of the labor market. Today’s 178,000 new jobs will help alleviate concerns, while the loss ofThe slight change in the employment rate to 4.3% is not enough to cause immediate concern. However, the slowdown trend of "low hiring, low layoffs" cannot be ignored. No matter how unexpected last month's data was, the Fed's decision to keep rates on hold was well ahead of market expectations. The results reflect policymakers' continued caution in balancing short-term shocks felt across the economy with long-term economic stability.
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