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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Forex Awards 2020
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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market news

A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market

Wonderful introduction:

If the sea loses the rolling of huge waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the wild dance of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its true course, it will lose its meaning.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: a collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On April 7, the global foreign exchange market entered a critical trading day driven by both geopolitics and macro data. The U.S.-Iran ultimatum has entered a countdown, the conflict in the Middle East continues to spill over, and the Eurozone and the United States have released intensive data. The world's major currencies are facing a window of violent fluctuations. The following will www.xmtraders.comprehensively sort out the core news affecting the foreign exchange market today from the two dimensions of good and bad, and provide accurate reference for traders.

1. Good news: Supporting the strengthening of the US dollar, safe-haven currencies and high-interest currencies

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have soared, and the safe-haven attribute of the US dollar has strengthened (good for the US dollar). The Trump administration has set the ultimatum for US-Iran negotiations at 20:00 on April 7, threatening to attack Iran's civilian infrastructure within 4 hours if an agreement is not reached. Iran firmly refuses a temporary ceasefire and insists on core demands such as a permanent ceasefire, the lifting of sanctions, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations between the two sides have www.xmtraders.completely broken down, the probability of conflict escalation in the Middle East has increased sharply, and global risk aversion has exploded. As the U.S. dollar is a traditional safe-haven currency, the influx of funds has boosted buying orders. The U.S. dollar index returned to 99.98 overnight, holding firm as key support below the 100 mark. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices to US$113 per barrel, exacerbating concerns about global inflation. The market is further betting that the Fed's expected rate cut will be postponed and high interest rates will be maintained for longer, which will benefit the U.S. dollar's interest rate advantage.

U.S. durable goods orders are expected to improve, and economic resilience supports the U.S. dollar (good for the U.S. dollar). The monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in February will be announced at 20:30 tonight. The market expects a growth of 1.2%, www.xmtraders.compared with the previous value of -1.5%. If the data is in line with or exceeds expectations, it will confirm the recovery of the U.S. manufacturing industry and strong domestic demand, further weakening the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June (CME interest rate futures show that the probability of an interest rate cut has dropped to less than 20%). Economic fundamentals and policy expectations are both positive, providing solid support for the US dollar.support, suppressing the rebound space of non-US currencies.

Japan’s interest rate hike expectations are rising, and the yen is experiencing a phased rebound (good for the yen). Affected by high oil prices in the Middle East pushing up inflation and Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rising to 2.41% (a 27-year high), the market is betting that the Bank of Japan’s April 27 meeting will raise interest rates with a 70% probability. Japan's Finance Minister continued to verbally intervene, warning of excessive depreciation of the yen, inhibiting the upside of the dollar against the yen. Coupled with the selling of overseas assets by Japanese institutions and the sharp reflow of funds, the U.S. dollar fell from a high of 159.83 against the yen, and the short-term rebound momentum of the yen increased.

The UK's economic resilience exceeded expectations, and the pound remained strong (good for the pound). The final value of the UK's services PMI in March remained at a high of 55.2, which is in the expansion range, and the economic performance is better than that of the euro zone. The Bank of England's expected interest rate cut lags behind that of the European Central Bank. The interest rate advantage supports the pound. Coupled with the low geopolitical risk in the UK, capital continues to flow in. The pound against the US dollar stands firm at the 1.32 mark and bucks the trend and strengthens during the day.

2. Bad news: Suppressing the US dollar, dragging down the euro and the weakening of www.xmtraders.commodity currencies

Expectations for the easing of the US-Iran conflict have been repeated, and the safe-haven buying of the US dollar has weakened (bad for the US dollar). Despite the tough attitudes of both sides, countries such as Pakistan and Turkey continue to mediate, and the market still has weak expectations of a 45-day temporary ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Once the negotiations turn around, the U.S. dollar safe-haven premium will quickly subside, triggering a short-term plunge in the U.S. dollar index. At the same time, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase warned that conflicts in the Middle East may push up oil prices and trigger stagflation, which will drag down U.S. economic growth and be negative for the fundamentals of the U.S. dollar in the long term.

The Eurozone economy is weak, and the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates (bad for the euro). The service industry PMI for France, Germany, and the Eurozone in March will be released from 15:50 to 16:30 today. Market expectations have all fallen slightly, maintaining the weakness below the boom-bust line. The Eurozone is highly dependent on imported energy, and the surge in oil prices in the Middle East has intensified cost pressures, raising the risk of economic stagflation. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank publicly stated that it needs to respond flexibly to energy shocks, suggesting that the interest rate cut window has been brought forward. The interest rate differential advantage of the euro has faded. The euro fell back to 1.1549 against the US dollar overnight, indicating obvious short-term pressure.

www.xmtraders.commodity currencies were dragged down, and the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar faced dual pressures (bad for the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar). Canada's service industry PMI shrank in March, and the economic weakness www.xmtraders.combined with expectations of interest rate cuts offset the benefits of high oil prices. The U.S. dollar maintained a high fluctuation of 1.3914 against the Canadian dollar. Although the Australian dollar is supported by China's expected economic improvement, the conflict in the Middle East has dragged down global trade. China's foreign exchange reserve growth slowed in March, and the Australian dollar's rebound space is limited. www.xmtraders.commodity currencies as a whole are in a negative environment of "weak economy, loose policies, and tight geographies", and it is difficult for them to rise in a trend.

The risk of global stagflation has intensified, and emerging market currencies are under pressure (bad for emerging currencies). The head of the IMF warned that the conflict in the Middle East has led to a downward revision of global growth expectations and higher inflation. Under the triple pressure of high oil prices, high interest rates, and geopolitical turmoil, capital outflows from emerging markets intensified. The Turkish lira hit a record low of 44.5, and currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah and the Korean won continued to weaken. Depreciation pressure on emerging currencies is transmitted to G10 currencies, indirectly suppressing the overall performance of Africa and the United States.

3. Today’s core trading focus

Geographical main line: Keep an eye on the outcome of the U.S.-Iran ultimatum on the evening of April 7. If the conflict escalates, the U.S. dollar and yen will surge, and the euro and www.xmtraders.commodity currencies will plummet; when the ceasefire agreement is reached, the U.S. dollar will recover quickly and risk currencies will rebound.

Data main line: U.S. durable goods orders and New York Fed inflation expectations are key in the evening. Data exceeding expectations strengthens the dollar bulls, and vice versa, the dollar is under pressure.

Technical key: The US dollar index focuses on the 99.80-100.65 range; the EURUSD is supported at 1.1480 and the resistance is at 1.1580; the US dollar against the Japanese yen is supported at 159.00 and the 160.00 mark.

Overall, the foreign exchange market was in a state of high volatility and high risk on April 7, with geopolitics being the absolute dominant factor. Traders need to strictly control positions and set stop losses. In the short term, they should follow the core logic of "buy USD/JPY when there is geopolitical conflict, and buy risky currencies if there is a moderation." Wait for clear guidance from data and events before operating with the trend.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market

1. Good news: Supporting the strengthening of the US dollar, safe-haven currencies and high-interest currencies

2. Bad news: Suppressing the US dollar, dragging down the euro and the weakening of www.xmtraders.commodity currencies

3. Today’s core trading focus

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market

1. Good news: Supporting the strengthening of the US dollar, safe-haven currencies and high-interest currencies

2. Bad news: Suppressing the US dollar, dragging down the euro and the weakening of www.xmtraders.commodity currencies

3. Today’s core trading focus

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason