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Global market outlook on Japan’s election and data-intensive implementation
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Official Website]: Global Market Outlook on the Japanese Election and Data-intensive Implementation". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Next week (February 8-13), the global market will usher in a critical window period when the Japanese election and heavy economic data are intensively released. The release of U.S. non-agricultural data will be postponed, the core economic indicators of China and the United States will be disclosed together, and the fourth quarter results of SMIC will also be officially unveiled. From the political game of the Japanese election to the non-agricultural and CPI data anchored by the Federal Reserve's policy, from China's social credit and inflation data to European and American economic prosperity indicators, various core events are intertwined with data, each of which may trigger violent market fluctuations. Investors need to plan ahead to deal with potential risks and opportunities.
Japan’s general election kicks off, with constitutional amendments and policy games at the core
Japan held an early general election on Sunday (February 8). The important thing to watch is whether the Liberal Democratic Party can win the 310-seat House of Representatives (2/3) in the House of Representatives election, because starting the constitutional amendment process requires the approval of more than 2/3 of the members of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
In addition, if the House of Representatives reaches 310 seats, it can also activate the "House Superiority System". Even if the Senate vetoes the bill, the House of Representatives can pass it with a 2/3 majority, which is of great significance to policy advancement.
Data from Asia, Europe and the United States are www.xmtraders.coming together, and SMIC’s performance is ready to be disclosed
On Monday (February 9), Japan announced its adjusted trade account for December, Europe announced its consumer confidence index for February, and the more important final monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in December is a way to observe the U.S. inventory cycle. SMIC will announce its fourth-quarter results on Tuesday night.
Inflation expectations www.xmtraders.come first, and core data from China and the United States set the tone for economic fundamentals
On Tuesday (February 10), the New York Fed released its 1- and 3-year inflation expectations and gold price forecasts. China announces new additionsThe scale of RMB loans and social financing are two core performance points regarding the Chinese economy.
China’s M2 growth rate will be announced later. The scissor difference between M1 growth rate and M2 growth rate is a classic indicator of market activity. A positive scissor difference means that investment is picking up and people are willing to convert fixed-term investments into demand deposits.
In the evening, the United States will announce the monthly retail sales rate, www.xmtraders.commonly known as scary figures, and also announce the import price index, which is a leading indicator and external driver of inflation.
Non-farm payrolls are the finale, and global data is ushering in a wave of intensive cashing
Wednesday (February 11) is the focus of this week. The U.S. Department of Labor’s non-farm payrolls data scheduled for February 6 will be postponed to be released today because the previously released small non-farm ADP is lower than expected. Generally speaking, the number of new non-agricultural jobs this time may be lower than expected, but since the overall number of non-agricultural jobs is at a low level, its influence is limited. On the contrary, the unemployment rate that has a greater impact on the market is still the unemployment rate. 4.4% is the red line of the U.S. unemployment rate. If it exceeds the red line, the suppression effect on the US dollar index will be more obvious.
Two FOMC voting www.xmtraders.committee members will give speeches that evening. In addition to non-farm payrolls, there are also China's CPI and PPI data as well as crude oil inventories released by API and EIA. At the same time, SMIC plans to hold a performance briefing meeting for the fourth quarter of 2025.
The U.S. debt auction attracts attention, and European and American economic data www.xmtraders.complement the fundamentals
On Thursday (February 12), the United States announced the results of the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate auction, which was lower than expected and pushed up Treasury yields. This bid is more interesting when www.xmtraders.combined with non-agricultural and CPI data.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond auction is sandwiched between the two core data of non-farm payrolls and CPI. The auction results will amplify the market’s expected fluctuations in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The UK releases December GDP, the US releases initial and continuing jobless claims, and later January existing home sales.
Inflationary GDP in the United States and Europe has www.xmtraders.come to an end, and the pre-holiday effect highlights market layout opportunities
On Friday evening (February 13), the United States will release January CPI year-on-year data. www.xmtraders.combined with non-agricultural data, it will outline the next course of action of the Federal Reserve.
On the same day, the Eurozone released fourth-quarter GDP data. The Spring Festival begins on February 15. The pre-holiday effect on the capital market may be more obvious this week, and Friday may be a cost-effective time to hunt for bargains.
Risk warning: General election variables and policy expectations need to be focused on
In addition to core economic data, investors also need to be wary of three major potential risks: First, the political variables caused by the results of the Japanese election. If the Liberal Democratic Party seat changes exceed market expectations, it will directly trigger short-term violent fluctuations in the yen and Japanese assets; second, the U.S. After the release of the Federal Reserve's non-agricultural and CPI data, if policy expectations are significantly revised, it will lead to joint adjustments in the U.S. dollar index, U.S. bond yields and global risk assets; third, the fluctuations in capital before the Spring Festival www.xmtraders.combined with the performance disclosures of Chinese-funded www.xmtraders.companies may trigger emotional fluctuations in A-share and Hong Kong stock-related sectors, and we need to be alert to the risk of tightening short-term market liquidity.
AboveThe content is all about "[XM official website]: Japanese election and data-intensive global market outlook". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some contents in the article still need to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues:
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