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Non-farm payrolls report, ECB and Bank of England decisions, RBA may raise interest rates
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Non-agricultural employment report, decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise interest rates." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
XM Forex Market Outlook: Non-farm payrolls report, ECB and Bank of England decisions, RBA may raise interest rates
Friday - Non-farm payrolls report
The monthly non-farm payrolls is a major event in the gold dollar market, and unexpected data can bring unparalleled short-term trading opportunities.
At 21:30 this Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non-farm employment report, in which the expected value of new non-farm employment is 64,000, higher than the previous value of 50,000, but still at the bottom of recent years. The unemployment rate was previously 4.4%, expected to be unchanged.
The expected values of financial institutions are often based on models, and there is a possibility of misjudgment.
There were two most impactful events in January: one was Trump’s public opinion plundering of Greenland, which, although not taken into action, strengthened European countries’ sense of independence and weakened the trade potential of the United States; the other was the US Immigration Administration’s arrest of illegal immigrants, which resulted in the death of two Americans, and the public opinion continued to ferment, eventually leading to a technical shutdown of the US government.
The two events have had varying degrees of negative impacts on the U.S. economy and employment, which may lead to the negative content of the non-farm payrolls report. Especially the issue of ICE, the Immigration Administration. If negative public opinion cannot be eliminated, Trump's policy of www.xmtraders.combating illegal immigration may be seriously hindered. Currently, the U.S. Congress has terminated funding for the ICE department, which may lead to the shutdown of the department.
If the non-farm payrolls report is much lower than financial institutions expected, it may force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively, which will be negative for the U.S. dollar index.
Thursday - European Central Bank and Bank of England interest rate decisions
The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 21:15 on ThursdayAs a result, the Bank of England will announce the results of its interest rate decision at 20:00 on the same day.
Financial institutions expect that both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will keep their benchmark interest rates unchanged, possibly because concerns about a rebound in inflation outweigh concerns about a weak labor market.
Cutting interest rates can stimulate employment, but will lead to rising prices; keeping interest rates unchanged or raising interest rates can curb inflation, but excessively high interest rates inhibit personal and corporate loans, indirectly causing the job market to shrink.
European and American countries have similar macroeconomic characteristics - high inflation has just ended, and the job market is fully exhausted. In such a contradictory economic situation, the central banks of various countries have different handling methods, but they basically follow one principle - to follow the Fed's synchronized changes.
The Federal Reserve has chosen to cut interest rates cautiously, taking it one step at a time, in an effort to boost employment without triggering a high-inflation counterattack. In January this year, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate resolution: maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged. For the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, choosing to cut interest rates will cause the euro and pound to depreciate relative to the dollar, and domestic inflation rates may get out of control. Therefore, the probability that the two will jointly choose to remain on hold and be in lockstep with the Fed is very high.
Tuesday - Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
Australia is located in Oceania and has close trade with Asian countries, so it is less affected by Trump's foreign policies. Analyzing the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision is mainly based on Australia's own macroeconomic performance.

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In June 2025, Australia's core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, a new low since March 2022. Since then, the core inflation rate has continued to rise, reaching 3.3% in December 2025, exceeding the moderate inflation standard of 2 to 3%. For the Reserve Bank of Australia, if it does not intervene as soon as possible, the inflation rate may continue to rise in the future.
In September 2025, Australia’s unemployment rate was 4.4%, hitting a new high. Since then, the unemployment rate has continued to fall, with the latest value in December 2025 being 4.1%, which is far below the warning standard of 5%. Australia's job market has been healthy and stable since 2022, and there are no signs of significant deterioration in European and American countries in 2025.
Taken together, Australia's high inflation is likely to counterattack, the job market is strong, and the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia announcing an interest rate hike at its January interest rate decision is extremely high. In fact, financial institutions also believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and the base interest rate will increase from 3.6% to 3.85%.
Wednesday - Eurozone CPI, US ADP data
Although there are some key data released on Wednesday, www.xmtraders.compared with the non-agricultural and interest rate decisions mentioned above, they are of lower importance, so you can simply pay attention.
At 18:00 on Wednesday, Eurostat will announce the preliminary annual CPI value for the euro zone in January.Financial institutions expected 1.7%, lower than the previous value of 1.9%.
At 21:15 on Wednesday, the ADP data, known as "small non-agriculture", will be released. Financial institutions expect a value of 40,000, which is lower than the previous value of 41,000. The expectation is relatively pessimistic. Small non-farm payrolls have a forward-looking effect on Friday's non-farm payrolls report. If the published value is in line with expectations, it may mean that the final result of the non-farm payrolls report will be much lower than expected.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not rely on this report as your sole reference. Analysts' views may change at different times and will be updated without notice.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Non-farm employment report, decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise interest rates". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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