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Global market outlook amid intensive PMI releases and policy signals
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Global market outlook under the intertwining of intensive PMI releases and policy signals". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
From manufacturing prosperity to job market prospects, from consumption stimulus signals to segmented track catalysis, investors need to pay close attention to the resonance effect of data and policies, and plan for potential opportunities and risks in advance.
China’s official PMI takes the lead, and the A-share valuation center is affected
On Sunday (November 30), China announced its official manufacturing, non-manufacturing and www.xmtraders.comprehensive PMI for November. As the core center of stock market valuation, this data will directly affect the opening performance of A-shares on Monday and is the primary reference for judging the domestic macroeconomic prosperity.
The global manufacturing PMI is intensively released, and consumption stimulus signals are implemented simultaneously
On Monday (December 1), China announced the PMI of SPGI, the former Caixin PMI. www.xmtraders.compared with the official PMI, it pays more attention to the operating dynamics of small and medium-sized enterprises and is a "barometer" of economic micro vitality. At the same time, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Eurozone, Brazil, and Mexico will all release manufacturing PMIs, which will reflect the vitality of global industrial production and have an important impact on global stock market risk appetite.
On the same day, Xinjiang's Letay region will trial the first "snow holiday". The official account of Hangzhou West Lake Scenic Area stated that Lingyin Feilaifeng Scenic Area (including Lingyin Temple, Yongfu Temple, and Taoguang Temple) will implement a free ticket policy, releasing a clear signal of national promotional fees.
Australian trade + European inflation verification, the Federal Reserve’s statement attracts attention
On Tuesday (December 2), Australia released the ANZ weekly consumer confidence index and the third quarter trade balance. Australia’s export data directly revealed the actual situation of global economic recovery.
At the same time, the Eurozone will announce the CPI in November and the unemployment rate in October. The two data can cross-check the European Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.rationality.
On the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at a www.xmtraders.commemorative event, and Governor Bowman will give testimony before a House of Representatives www.xmtraders.committee.
Full coverage of non-manufacturing PMI, reissue of key U.S. data sets the tone
On Wednesday (December 3), in addition to the crude oil inventories announced by the U.S. API and EIA as usual, China, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Brazil will release their non-manufacturing PMI. The index covers the two major areas of the service industry (wholesale and retail, catering and tourism, finance, information technology, etc.) and the construction industry.
The United States will then release the ADP employment figures in November, as well as the reissue of September import price data and industrial output and capacity utilization series data, revealing the true fundamentals of the U.S. economy from the dual dimensions of inflation transmission and production vitality. It is an important reference data before the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in December.
Layoff outlook + trade data, industry conference detonates segmented track
On Thursday (December 4), the United States announced the layoff data of challenger www.xmtraders.companies in November. This data is a leading indicator of the U.S. unemployment rate and unemployment benefit claims for 2-3 months, and has a key reference value for predicting the trend of the U.S. labor market;
At the same time, the trade account of the U.S. export situation in October will also be announced, as well as initial and continued unemployment claims this week.
Europe will release retail sales data for the Eurozone in October, reflecting the recovery of the Eurozone consumer market.
The industrial side is also full of highlights. Shanghai will hold a brain-computer interface and robotics conference, and Suzhou will hold a digital twins conference.
North American employment + consumption data www.xmtraders.comes to an end, and reissued data www.xmtraders.completes the economic picture
On Friday (December 5), Canada announced changes in the unemployment rate and employment numbers, and the United States announced the December Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. At the same time, it reissued the month-on-month situation of factory orders and personal consumption in September. The www.xmtraders.completion of multiple lagging data will further clarify the supply and demand pattern and recovery resilience of the U.S. economy, and conclude the market trend next week.
Risk reminder: Multiple variables need to be focused on prevention and control
In addition to core economic data, investors also need to be wary of four major potential risks: First, geopolitical variables such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may trigger a rise in risk aversion, which is good for safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar.
Second, if the speeches of major central bank officials such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank signal a policy shift beyond expectations, they may quickly revise market interest rate expectations, triggering short-term violent fluctuations in the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets.
Third, if the global economic recovery is less than expected or international trade friction escalates, sentiment on risk assets will be suppressed.
Fourth, the marginal changes in the narrative during the global stock market rebound may resonate with the data to affect the trend of the equity market.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Global market outlook under the intertwining of intensive PMI release and policy signals". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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