Oil price gains limited, driven by safe-haven buying Gold prices hit a record high above 5,100 US winter storm impacts crude oil production

Basic news

On Tuesday (January 27, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$5,048 per ounce. Gold prices hit a new high on Monday, reaching US$5,110.86 per ounce, mainly due to strong gains caused by the escalation of geopolitical tensions. Driven by safe-haven buying, at the same time, Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on Canada, exacerbating trade tensions, and the United States also increased tariffs on South Korea; U.S. crude oil traded around $60.83 per ounce, and oil prices fell slightly on Monday. The market is www.xmtraders.comprehensively assessing the short-term impact of the U.S. winter storm on crude oil production and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with major stock indexes rising for the fourth consecutive trading day. Investors are paying close attention to this week's intensive earnings reports from technology giants and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to assess the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom and the path of future monetary policy.

As of the close, the Dow Jones Index rose 0.64%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.50%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.43%. The market's rise was mainly driven by large technology stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Broadcom.

This week, www.xmtraders.companies such as Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla will release financial reports. Their performance and outlook on artificial intelligence are regarded as a key test for the current rally in technology stocks. Investors want to see AI-related spending translate into tangible returns, and any slight deviation in corporate guidance could trigger a reassessment of lofty valuations.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting this week, and the market is generally expected toKeep interest rates unchanged, but will carefully interpret its statements on future policy paths.

In terms of sectors, the www.xmtraders.communication services sector rose 1.3%, leading the performance; the consumer discretionary sector fell 0.7%, with Tesla's stock price falling 3%, becoming the main drag on the S&P 500 index. At the individual stock level, cloud infrastructure www.xmtraders.company CoreWeave's share price rose 5.7%, boosted by Nvidia's investment news; while the share prices of prison operators GEOGroup and CoreCivic fell sharply due to political factors. Shares of rare earth miner USA Rare Earth rose on reports that the U.S. government will take a 10% stake in the www.xmtraders.company.

Gold Market

Spot gold soared to a record high on Monday, breaking through the $5,100 per ounce mark, mainly driven by strong safe-haven buying triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold prices rose 2% to close at US$5,077.22 per ounce, hitting an intraday high of US$5,110.86. This extends gold's strong rally, which has gained nearly 18% so far this year after surging 64% in 2025. Analysts pointed out that the current geopolitical and economic uncertainty is the core driving force supporting gold prices.

U.S. President Trump recently threatened to impose additional tariffs on Canada, exacerbating trade tensions. At the same time, the market is also paying close attention to possible coordinated intervention in the foreign exchange market by the United States and Japan. In addition, the Trump administration's investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has added policy uncertainty to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, which will help increase the appeal of gold, a non-yield-yielding asset.

In addition to safe-haven demand, central banks of various countries continue to purchase gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves, and gold ETF holdings have increased by about 20% year-on-year, which have formed a solid buying foundation. Société Générale predicts that gold prices may reach US$6,000 per ounce by the end of the year, saying that this target may still be conservative; Morgan Stanley gives a bull market target price of US$5,700.

Other precious metals also rose sharply simultaneously. Spot silver prices surged 10.2% to close at $113.46, hitting a record high of $117.70 during the session, mainly due to strong buying by retail investors and momentum investors. Platinum and palladium prices also rose by 1.8% and 5.9% respectively, with platinum also setting a new record high.

Oil Market

International oil prices fell slightly on Monday, as the market is www.xmtraders.comprehensively assessing the short-term impact of the U.S. winter storm on crude oil production and continued geopolitical risks.

Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.4% at US$65.59 per barrel; US crude oil futures closed down 0.7% at US$60.63 per barrel. Although oil prices rose more than 2% in the previous session, a winter storm sweeping across the United States put pressure on energy infrastructure. Analysts estimated that U.S. crude oil production lost as much as 2 million barrels per day during the weekend, accounting for about 15% of the country's output. Among them, the Permian Basin is affected byThe loudest. Consulting agencies expect most production to resume by January 30.

At the same time, tensions between the United States and Iran continue to keep the market vigilant. U.S. President Trump warned Iran again last week, and Iran responded by saying it would treat any attack as a "total war." Traders said the crude oil market was likely to remain volatile until it became clear how the Trump administration would handle Iran. In addition, OPEC+ is expected to decide to continue suspending its production increase plan in March at its meeting this Sunday. This expectation also constitutes upward resistance to oil prices.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar fell across the board on Monday, while the yen surged to its highest level in more than two months. Market speculation that the United States and Japan may jointly intervene in the currency market continues to rise. At the same time, investors are also waiting for this week's Federal Reserve meeting and are worried that the U.S. government may shut down again.

The Japanese yen fell 1% against the US dollar to 154.15 yen, falling nearly 3% in the past two trading days. The fluctuations stemmed from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's statement that "necessary measures" would be taken to deal with speculative market trends, as well as news that the New York Fed had conducted exchange rate inquiries with traders - which was seen as a precursor to intervention. Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that given the possible involvement of the United States, the signal for intervention is stronger than before.

A broad sell-off in the U.S. dollar also boosted other major currencies. The euro and sterling both hit four-month highs against the dollar. Market analysts believe that this "selling dollar" transaction is related to concerns about political risks in the United States. Congress needs to pass an appropriations bill by January 30 to avoid a partial government shutdown, and the dispute over funding for immigration enforcement agencies has exacerbated this risk. In addition, President Trump said that he would soon announce the nominee for the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, which also added uncertainty to the market. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting this week and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

International News

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week is 97.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 40.2%

According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by March is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 0.4%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 40.2%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points and 50 basis points is 45.9% and 12.7% respectively

Zelensky: Ukraine, the United States and Russia are expected to hold trilateral talks again on February 1

Ukrainian President Zelensky said in a video speech on the evening of the 26th that Ukraine, the United States and Russia are expected to hold trilateral talks again on February 1. Zelensky said, "We have discussed that the (tripartite) team will hold talks again this Sunday. It would be great if the talks can be accelerated."

Trump: Increase tariffs on some Korean goods to 25%

Trump posted on social media: "Our trade agreements are vital to the United States. In every agreement, we have acted quickly to reduce tariffs in accordance with the established agreement. Of course, we also hope that our trading partners will do the same. The South Korean Congress has not fulfilled its agreement with the United States. Because the South Korean Congress has not passed our historic trade Agreement, I hereby announce that South Korea’s reciprocal tariffs on automobiles, timber, medicines and all other tariffs will be increased from 15% to 25%.”

Canadian Prime Minister: Enhance economic resilience and reduce dependence on the United States

Canadian Prime Minister Carney said on the 26th that Canada is www.xmtraders.committed to enhancing economic resilience and promoting trade diversification to reduce dependence on the United States. Carney announced a series of new economic measures at a supermarket in Ottawa, Canada's capital. In response to U.S. President Trump's recent new round of tariff threats against Canada, he said that Canada has long been aware of changes in U.S. trade policy and its impact on the economy, and is adapting to this change by strengthening domestic construction and expanding trading partners. New measures announced by Carney include tax cuts for 22 million Canadians, accelerating housing construction and expanding social security programs.

The United States may ask Japan to increase the proportion of defense spending to 5%

According to Japan's Kyodo News Agency, the U.S. Department of Defense recently announced that U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby will visit Japan and may directly ask Japan to increase the proportion of defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP). According to Japanese media reports, in June last year, the U.S. government proposed a plan for the Japanese government to increase the proportion of defense spending in GDP to 3.5%, but Japan's position at the time was that it was "difficult to agree." However, since Takaichi Sanae came to power in October last year, he has quickly pushed to achieve the goal of defense spending accounting for 2% of GDP, two years ahead of schedule. The Gao City Government's behavior of continuously promoting arms expansion regardless of people's livelihood has been criticized by all walks of life in Japan.

Hungarian Prime Minister: Will raise objection to the EU's ban on the import of Russian natural gas

On the 26th local time, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said that according to the regulations passed by the EU that day, the EU's www.xmtraders.comprehensive ban on the import of liquefied natural gas from Russia will take effect in early 2027. In this regard, Hungary will raise objections in the EU Court of Justice and Hungary will never www.xmtraders.compromise. On the same day, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto said that a ban on the import of Russian crude oil and natural gas would seriously harm Hungary's interests, meaning that Hungarian household energy bills would triple and factories would also be in trouble due to rising prices. Therefore, once the regulation is officially announced, Hungary will immediately file a lawsuit with the EU Court of Justice to have the regulation revoked.

Flight cancellations continue to be large in many places in the United States as the impact of the severe winter storm persists

As airlines work to resume flight operations after a severe winter storm, American travelers are preparing for possible continued travel disruptions at the beginning of the new work week. The storm caused the highest number of flight cancellations since the COVID-19 pandemic. According to FlightAwareAccording to data, as of 9 a.m. New York time on Monday, nearly 3,900 flights have been cancelled. About 11,600 flights were canceled on Sunday as the worst storm in years blanketed vast swaths of the southern U.S. and mid-Atlantic regions with snow and ice and effectively paralyzed some of the nation's busiest aviation hubs.

Polls show that support for Trump’s immigration policies has hit a new low during his current term

On January 26, local time, a latest poll showed that U.S. President Trump’s public support for immigration issues has dropped to the lowest level since his current term. Most respondents believe that his government has “overdone” immigration enforcement. Polls show that only 39% of American adults approve of Trump's performance on immigration, a further decline from 41% at the beginning of this month; 53% of respondents disapprove. In contrast, when Trump took office in January last year, immigration was once his area of ​​comparative advantage, with his approval rating reaching 50% in February last year. The poll also showed that about 58% of respondents believed that the enforcement actions of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) "went too far." In addition, about 90% of Democratic respondents believe that law enforcement is excessive, and about 60% of independent voters believe that law enforcement is excessive. In terms of overall approval rating, Trump's overall approval rating has dropped to 38%, the same as the lowest level during his current term, and lower than the 41% in the previous round of polls from January 12 to 13.

Domestic News

Alibaba Qianwen’s most powerful model was unveiled, with performance www.xmtraders.comparable to GPT-5.2 and Gemini3Pro

On January 26, Alibaba officially released Qwen3-Max-Thinking, Qianwen’s flagship inference model, setting several new global records in authoritative evaluations. Its performance is www.xmtraders.comparable to GPT-5.2 and Gemini3Pro, making it the most powerful large AI model in China that is closest to the top international models so far. The total parameters of Qianwen's new model exceed one trillion, and it has conducted larger-scale post-reinforcement learning training, and through a series of innovations in reasoning technology, it has finally achieved a significant leap in model performance. In a number of key performance benchmark tests, Qianwen's performance exceeded top models such as GPT-5.2, ClaudeOpus4.5 and Gemini3Pro, setting a new global record and further expanding the reasoning performance boundaries of artificial intelligence systems. Qwen3-Max-Thinking also greatly enhances the native Agent ability to call tools independently. Models can think while using tools like professionals, and the answers are more user-friendly, smarter, and smoother. At the same time, model illusions are also greatly reduced, laying the foundation for solving real www.xmtraders.complex tasks.

Ministry of www.xmtraders.commerce: This year we will vigorously develop service trade and introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption

On January 26, Wang Zhihua, Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of www.xmtraders.commerce, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that this year we will vigorously develop service trade, improve the cross-border service trade negative list management system, and orderly promote the opening of the service market. Building national servicesTrade innovation and development demonstration zone, expand the export of advantageous production services, and promote the concentrated development of intellectual property, human resources and other service trade. Encourage professional service institutions such as design, consulting, finance, accounting, and law to improve their international service capabilities; encourage the export of traditional advantageous services such as education, traditional Chinese medicine, and Chinese food; and introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption.

Domestic residents will make 6.522 billion trips in 2025

According to the statistical results of the Domestic Resident Travel Sample Survey, in 2025, domestic residents will make 6.522 billion trips, an increase of 907 million over the same period last year and a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. Among them, urban residents made 4.996 billion domestic trips, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; rural residents made 1.526 billion domestic trips, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%. In 2025, domestic residents will spend 6.30 trillion yuan on travel, an increase of 0.55 trillion yuan over the same period last year, and a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. Among them, urban residents spent 5.30 trillion yuan on travel, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; rural residents spent 1.00 trillion yuan on travel, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Oil price gains are limited, safe-haven buying drives gold prices to record highs above 5100, US winter storm impacts crude oil production", it is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor, I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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