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Is yen intervention doomed to fail? Behind the scenes is a “losing battle” between the Bank of Japan and the market

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Is the Japanese yen intervention doomed to fail? Behind it is a "losing battle" between the Bank of Japan and the market." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

XM Foreign Exchange APP News - Discussions about Japan's official intervention to support the yen are heating up. Although the news of government intervention has brought a short-term boost, however, regardless of intervention or not, this move is considered by the market to be doomed to failure for two reasons. First of all, from a short-term tactical perspective, the key to successful intervention lies in surprise, and the unilateral positions in the foreign exchange market are extremely crowded. Neither of these conditions are currently met. Secondly, and a more critical medium-term fundamental factor, Japan's long-term interest rate levels are far below where free market pricing should be. This means that the risk premium corresponding to Japan's high public debt has been artificially suppressed in the bond market. As long as this situation continues, the depreciation pressure on the yen will always exist. This also explains why intervention in 2024 failed to achieve sustained strengthening of the yen. The solution to this dilemma is clear: The Japanese government should sell some of its vast financial holdings and use the proceeds to pay down debt. As long as this move fails to materialize, it shows that Japan is still avoiding fundamental issues, and foreign exchange intervention is precisely the embodiment of this avoidance mentality. During the Asian market session on Monday (January 26), if official intervention is to be effective, the best time is to take it by surprise and the market position is extremely biased to one side. Today's buzz about intervention has taken the suddenness out of the action, and market positioning is far from extreme. The chart below illustrates that the core problem with Japan's American goods is that, in fact, a solution exists. Japan’s total government debt accounts for 240% of GDP, but its net debt ratio is much lower, about 130%. The reason for this difference is the huge financial assets held by the government. The fundamental solution is to sell these assets and use the proceeds to repay debts. This is the best way to fundamentally eliminate the pressure of depreciation of the yen. at presentAccording to the market, even a symbolic start of this process will have miraculous effects. However, due to political and economic realities, this plan has not yet been implemented. All these financial assets are managed by powerful interests who are unwilling to sell, which is a hurdle Japan must jump. The only way to break the situation is to let the situation deteriorate to a certain extent before it can turn around. This means that the yen may need to depreciate further until the influence of these vested interests is broken. (Daily chart of USD/JPY, source: Yihuitong) At 11:46 Beijing time, USD/JPY was trading at 154.20/21.

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Is yen intervention doomed to fail? Behind the scenes is a “losing battle” between the Bank of Japan and the market

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