Oil prices weigh supply and geopolitical influences, and safe-haven demand drives gold prices close to the 4,500 mark again

Basic News

On Wednesday (January 7, Beijing time), spot gold continued to rise, approaching the US$4,500/ounce mark. The escalation of geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand, and the market focused on the upcoming U.S. employment data will be released to determine the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy; U.S. crude oil traded around $57.07 per barrel. Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the market weighed expectations for sufficient global supply in 2026 against uncertainty about Venezuelan crude oil production following the arrest of leader Maduro.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a record closing high and chip stocks rising sharply on optimism about artificial intelligence. Pharmaceutical www.xmtraders.company Moderna jumped nearly 11% after Bank of America Global Research raised its target price, driving the S&P 500 Healthcare Index up 1.96%.

Storage and memory technology stocks performed strongly. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang introduced details of upcoming AI processors at the Consumer Electronics Show, including new storage technologies, pushing SanDisk to surge more than 27%, Western Digital to jump 17%, Seagate Technology to jump 14%, and Micron Technology to surge 10%, with all four stocks hitting record highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.75%, also hitting a record high. The cumulative increase in the first three days of this year was about 8%.

As the impact of the record-breaking 43-day federal government shutdown gradually subsides, the market is looking forward to employment and other economic data to be released this week. The S&P 500 closed up 0.62%, the Nasdaq rose 0.65%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.99% to 49,462.08 points, approaching the 50,000-point mark.

The market also digested Richmond Fed President Barkin’s remarks about being cautious about further cutting interest rates, and downplayed concerns that the US military’s capture of Venezuelan President Maduro may trigger broader geopolitical implications. Energy stocks fell back after rising the previous day, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron falling 3.4% and 4.5% respectively. American International Group fell 7.5% after announcing that its CEO was stepping down.

Gold Market

Gold prices continued their gains on Tuesday as escalating geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand, while the market focused on upcoming U.S. employment data to determine the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Spot gold was quoted at US$4,485.39 per ounce, up 0.8%, further approaching the historical high of US$4,549.71 set on December 24 last year; US gold futures for February delivery closed up 1% at US$4,496.10.

The weekend arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro by the United States has heightened global tensions. The ousted Maduro denied drug charges on Monday. KitcoMetals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff pointed out: "Precious metals traders currently see more risks than stock and bond traders." He said this incident continues to stimulate safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Investors are also waiting for the U.S. monthly employment report to be released on Friday. The market expects 60,000 new jobs to be added in December, slightly lower than the 64,000 jobs in the previous month. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year. Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin said that monetary policy needs to be "finely adjusted" to balance unemployment and inflation risks.

Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices may soar to $4,800 by the fourth quarter of this year, citing falling interest rates, changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve, and strong buying by central banks and funds. Spot silver rose 5.4% to $80.68 an ounce, while platinum and palladium also rose 7.2% and 5.9% respectively. Gold has risen by 64.4% in 2025, the best annual performance since 1979, and silver has soared by 147% throughout the year due to surge in industrial and investment demand.

Oil Market

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the market weighed expectations for ample global supplies in 2026 against uncertainty about Venezuelan crude output following the arrest of leader Maduro. Brent crude oil futures fell 1.7%, settling at $60.70 a barrel; U.S. crude oil futures fell 2%, settling at $57.13 a barrel.

PVMOil analyst Tamas Varga pointed out that it is too early to assess the impact of Maduro's arrest on the balance of oil supply and demand, but regardless of whether this OPEC member increases production, oil supply is expected to remain sufficient in 2026. Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report that global oil demand grew by about 900,000 barrels per day last year, below the historical trend of 1.2 million barrels per day, while OPEC and non-OPEC supply increased by 1.6 million barrels per day each between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2025.and about 2.4 million barrels per day, which could lead to a surplus of as much as 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026.

The U.S. capture of Maduro on Saturday could hasten the end of the oil embargo on Venezuela, boosting output and further intensifying price pressures. The market is paying close attention to the future direction of Venezuelan oil supplies, with U.S. President Trump claiming that U.S. oil www.xmtraders.companies are ready to invest in the country to increase production and exports. Three sources said that U.S. oil www.xmtraders.company executives are expected to go to the White House as early as Thursday to discuss related investment plans.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies on Tuesday, but the trend was relatively moderate. The market focused on upcoming economic data to judge the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. The euro fell after European inflation data softened.

The market reaction to the U.S. arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro over the weekend was relatively short-lived, especially in the foreign exchange market. Amo Sahota, director of KlarityFX, pointed out that the market regarded it as an "isolated incident" and there was no obvious risk aversion.

The US dollar rose 0.49% against the Swiss franc to 0.795 Swiss francs, and rose 0.14% against the Japanese yen to 156.6 yen. Sahota said that the market is gradually transitioning from the data vacuum period around the holidays, and investors are looking forward to understanding the true state of the U.S. labor market through this week's employment-related data (including the ADP report, job vacancies and Friday's non-farm payrolls report).

Federal Reserve officials are divided on their stance on the path of interest rates. Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin said that interest rate adjustments need to be "finely tuned" based on data; outgoing Fed Governor Milan called for a sharp interest rate cut this year; Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kashkari warned that the unemployment rate may rise "suddenly". Currently, the federal funds rate futures market predicts that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at its January meeting is about 82%.

The euro fell 0.26% against the U.S. dollar to $1.169 after data showed that inflation in Germany and France slowed more than expected in December, pushing euro zone government bond yields down about 3 basis points, while U.S. bond yields rose slightly, putting pressure on the euro. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep interest rates steady this year.

The pound fell 0.27% against the dollar to $1.3504, having earlier hit a nearly four-month high. The Australian dollar rose 0.36% to $0.6737 against the U.S. dollar, rising to its highest level in more than a year during the session. The currency is sensitive to global risk sentiment and often fluctuates in tandem with the stock market. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.19% to 98.57.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March is 47.2%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 18.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.7%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by March is 40.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 52.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 6.5%.

Many places in Europe experienced the strongest cold wave in a decade, and France launched emergency power supply response

Affected by strong northerly winds driven by high pressure systems in the Atlantic and Arctic, temperatures in northern and central Europe dropped sharply from Monday to early Tuesday morning, with many places setting new low temperature records. According to data from the British Meteorological Office, the lowest temperature in Marham in southeastern England dropped to -12.5°C; Mutt in eastern France and Oberstdorf in Bavaria, Germany both recorded severe cold temperatures of -22°C. Météo-France pointed out that this cold wave was the strongest low-temperature weather the country has experienced since 2012, significantly boosting heating demand across Europe. French electricity demand hit a five-year high on Monday, forcing the power system to add gas-fired generation to safeguard supplies. Currently, 26 provinces in northwestern France still maintain orange warnings for rain, snow and ice, and the snow accumulation in Charente-Maritime has reached 30 centimeters. The meteorological department predicts that the country will receive a new round of snowfall on Wednesday.

The EU plans to significantly increase steel import tariffs, and downstream industry associations jointly warn of "over-protection"

The strengthened trade protection measures proposed by the European www.xmtraders.commission to protect the local steel industry are triggering strong concerns and opposition from its internal downstream industries. Ten industry associations, including the European Automobile Manufacturers Association and the Metal Packaging Association, issued a joint statement on Tuesday, warning that the EU plans to significantly increase tariffs on imported steel and reduce duty-free quotas, which may seriously damage the www.xmtraders.competitiveness of exporters within the EU. The statement pointed out that the proposal intends to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported steel that exceeds the quota and cut the duty-free import quota by nearly half. This "over-fence" approach to the European market will not only cause relevant industries to face billions of euros in additional tariff costs, but will also significantly increase administrative burdens. The industries argue that measures to protect the steel industry should be done without sacrificing wider economic interests.

The U.S. Democratic Party launches an election-year campaign on affordable housing

The top Democrats in the U.S. Senate will officially launch an election-year campaign focused on reducing housing costs this Wednesday, as the average age of first-time homebuyers has climbed to a record high. Democrats view housing affordability as a major Achilles’ heel for Republicans in this year’s midterm elections. In last November's election, Democratic candidates who focused on housing issues won one after another, and Trump has since been eager to address this issue. Senate Minority Leader Schumer and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., will host a roundtable on Capitol Hill on Wednesday with representatives from lawmakers and agencies working to address housing affordability. The two also plan to release a report on Trump's housing policies that day, in which the president "has failed to deliver on his promises and has www.xmtraders.completely failed" in reducing housing costs. Schumer made it clear to his Democratic colleagues that he hopes to pave the way for Democrats to regain the majority in the Senate by focusing on cost issues this year.

Chevron mobilizes 11 oil tankers, Venezuela’s “shadow fleet” gradually disappears

As US President Trump orders the militaryThe team forcibly kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro), and Chevron has become the sole exporter of Venezuelan oil. Currently, a small fleet booked by the www.xmtraders.company is sailing to Venezuela. At least 11 vessels chartered by the U.S. oil giant are scheduled to arrive at the Venezuelan government-controlled ports of Jose and Bajo Grande in January, according to data www.xmtraders.compiled by Bloomberg. Against the background of the heavy deployment of U.S. troops in the Caribbean, at least 12 ships originally scheduled to sail to Venezuela were forced to turn around and leave, while Chevron continued to load oil.

Goldman Sachs warns: U.S. power grid will face power shortages by 2030

Goldman Sachs Group analysts said that as data center demand surges, nearly all U.S. power grids will lack critical backup capacity by 2030. Grids typically set a Reserve Margin target of at least 15%—the difference between peak demand and available generation from coal, natural gas, nuclear and renewable power plants. Carly Davenport, head of U.S. power and utility equity research at Goldman Sachs, noted that rising utility bills could become a key issue for gubernatorial elections in 36 states later this year.

The U.S. Supreme Court has set Friday as the day to release its opinion, or to rule on whether Trump’s tariffs are legal

The U.S. Supreme Court has set Friday as the day to release its opinion, which means that on that day the Supreme Court may rule on whether President Trump’s global tariff policies are legal. The Supreme Court never says in advance which rulings are ready for release, saying only that cases that have heard arguments are likely to be released when the justices convene at 10 a.m. Washington time. Given that the tariff case has previously entered an expedited process, a ruling is likely to be issued on Friday.

Domestic News

The amount of dividends paid by A-share listed www.xmtraders.companies in 2025 will reach a record high of over 2.6 trillion yuan

We learned from the three major stock exchanges, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Beijing Stock Exchange, that the dividends of A-share listed www.xmtraders.companies in 2025 will exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, a record high. Frequent dividend distribution has become the norm, with more than 500 www.xmtraders.companies paying dividends in the mid-term. Experts said that this reflects the improvement in the operational stability and financial forecasting capabilities of listed www.xmtraders.companies, which makes the A-share market more attractive to global long-term capital. From the perspective of dividend scale, industries such as banking, petroleum and petrochemicals, and large consumer goods are major dividend payers. In addition, technology listed www.xmtraders.companies actively pay dividends, showing a steady improvement in corporate profitability.

National Data Administration: my country will launch more than 30 national standards in the data field in 2026

Today we learned from the National Data Administration that in 2026, my country will launch more than 30 national standards in the data field, and the pace of standard development in emerging fields continues to accelerate. In 2026, our country will lay out a number of data standards in cutting-edge directions such as intelligence and embodied intelligence; at the same time, it will acceleratePublish a number of urgently needed standards for public data, high-quality data sets, data infrastructure, etc., and accelerate the development of a number of key standards for urban digital transformation, national integrated www.xmtraders.computing power network, etc.; in addition, accelerate the establishment of important data identification directories for industry, telecommunications, seed industry, aerospace, geographical information, civil aviation, etc. The relevant person in charge of the National Data Standardization Technical www.xmtraders.committee said that with the advantages of massive data and huge market application scale, my country has firmly ranked first in the world in terms of the development process and application depth of data standards. In 2025, my country has developed 48 national standards and technical documents in the data field, of which more than one-third of the standards have simultaneously carried out verification pilots during the formulation process.

In 2025, China Space Station will implement 31 new scientific and application projects on orbit.

It was learned from the Space Application Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences that the space science, applied experiments and technology test projects of China Space Station in 2025 are progressing smoothly, and scientific facilities covering life sciences, microgravity physics, new space technologies and applications have been formed, providing key guarantees for the implementation of core scientific tasks. In 2025, there will be 31 new on-orbit implementation science and application projects of the space application system, with about 867.5 kilograms of scientific materials such as uplink experimental modules, units and samples, and 83.92 kilograms of downlink space science experiment samples. More than 150TB of scientific data will be acquired. Scientific teams in various fields have produced a series of original, cutting-edge, innovative progress and results, and more than 50 authorized patents.

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