The ban on Venezuelan crude oil is about to be lifted. Analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on January 6

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose or fell mixedly, with the Dow futures falling 0.13%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.02%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.12%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.32%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.76%, France's CAC 40 index fell 0.44%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.22%.

2. Interpretation of market news

Venezuela’s crude oil ban is about to be lifted, and Canada is accelerating its westbound pipeline to hedge against www.xmtraders.competition

The Trump administration’s push to lift the ban on Venezuelan crude oil is injecting new political impetus into Canada’s planned westbound oil pipeline project. The pipeline is designed to move more Canadian crude to Asian markets to reduce reliance on the U.S. single market. Canadian heavy crude oil prices had fallen on Monday as traders expected political changes in Venezuela to free up supplies of the same type of heavy crude from the country. Industry analysts pointed out that if Venezuelan oil is fully lifted from the ban and returns to the international market, it will directly www.xmtraders.compete with Canadian crude oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast, and transportation costs may be more advantageous. Against this background, the westbound pipeline plan with a daily transmission capacity of 1 million barrels, led by the governor of Alberta, becomes even more urgent. The project plans to transport crude oil to the coast of British Columbia for export to Asia. The governor said that changes in the situation in Venezuela have highlighted the need for Canada to accelerate the diversification of energy exports.

Germany’s inflation unexpectedly slowed to 2% in December, and the market is paying attention to whether the European Central Bank’s policy path will change

GermanyInflation slowed more than expected in December, rising 2% year-on-year, lower than the 2.6% increase last month and the market median forecast of 2.2%. Previously, data released by France and Spain also showed that price pressure continued to ease. Nonetheless, this data does not provide sufficient basis for the ECB to adjust its current policy path. Euro zone inflation data will be released on Wednesday, with economists expecting headline inflation to fall back to the 2% target. Although policymakers have expressed confidence that inflation is under control, and the European Central Bank's latest forecast shows that price growth will be slightly below target this year and next, the stickiness of service sector inflation remains a source of concern. European Central Bank executive member Schnabel said borrowing costs are likely to remain stable for a longer period of time unless there are unexpected shocks.

The Japanese debt crisis is sweeping the world, and a 1999-style sell-off may overturn the market structure

⑴ U.S. bonds fell into a long-short tug of war on Tuesday. On the one hand, a new round of selling of Japanese government bonds (JGB) drove yields higher, and on the other hand, weak inflation data in Germany boosted demand for German bonds and was slightly under pressure. ⑵ Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.134%, a 27-year high, and a previous weak auction showed that the bid multiple plummeted from 3.59 to 3.30, indicating that market demand is deteriorating. ⑶The current Japanese bond trading situation is similar to the turbulent period in 1999. The market and the Japanese authorities may start a major game in 2026, because the real interest rate is still deeply negative, putting pressure on the Japanese yen, thus forcing yields to rise further. ⑷ Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group executives warned that if the Bank of Japan fails to anchor expectations for continued interest rate hikes and the government increases spending to appease voters, the yen may further depreciate, triggering a negative spiral of inflation and currency depreciation. ⑸ In the United States, a significant increase in the national minimum wage may lead to an increase in labor costs, which, other conditions remaining unchanged, may mean that the Federal Reserve's policy stance in 2026 will not be too dovish. ⑹ In terms of trading strategy, the tactics tend to be short when the 10-year U.S. bond yield rises to 4.11%, and plans to increase the position when it strengthens. It is expected that the 10-year yield will fluctuate within the range of 4.18% to 4.14%. ⑺The continued rise in Japanese bond yields may force Japanese investors to adjust their huge overseas asset allocations, such as reducing their holdings of U.S. bonds or mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which will have a spillover impact on the global bond market.

Accenture acquires Faculty, a British AI startup, to accelerate the reconstruction of AI business leadership

Accenture, the consulting industry giant, has agreed to acquire Faculty, a British artificial intelligence startup. The acquisition is one of Accenture's key moves to reshape its leadership in artificial intelligence, a www.xmtraders.company that has attracted attention for its close work with governments. Similar to other large www.xmtraders.companies in the industry, Accenture is conducting a www.xmtraders.comprehensive business restructuring around generative artificial intelligence technology. Although the technology is seen as a key tool to improve productivity, it also potentially threatens some existing consulting jobs. Accenture CEO Julie Sweet previously said that the www.xmtraders.company is working onIt has conducted relevant technical training for 500,000 employees around the world, and disclosed to shareholders in September last year that it had begun to lay off employees who were unable to transition to AI-related functions. Industry www.xmtraders.competition is becoming increasingly fierce. Recently, rival McKinsey also plans to cut about 200 technical positions globally, partly due to automation. Another person familiar with the matter revealed that in response to the slowdown in revenue growth, McKinsey ultimately plans to reduce its total headcount by about 10% globally.

The U.S. bond yield curve steepened sharply, and the 5-year/30-year interest rate spread hit a four-month high

⑴ The U.S. 5-year and 30-year Treasury bond yield spread has exceeded 114 basis points, reaching the steepest level since September 2025. ⑵ From a technical perspective, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the spread from the high in September last year to the low in October is located at 117 basis points, and the 100% retracement is at 123.5 basis points, while 108 basis points was the retracement low before the recent steepening trend restarted. ⑶In terms of specific yields, the 5-year Treasury yield has fallen from a high of 3.75%, while the 30-year yield has hit a new high of 4.885% today. ⑷At the same time, the Eurozone bond market also showed a similar trend. After directional adjustments, the French 5-year/30-year government bond yield curve also appeared steep. ⑸According to a three-month regression analysis of constant maturity yields, French 30-year government bonds are approximately 4.4 basis points cheaper than beta-adjusted 5-year government bonds, equivalent to 2.0 standard deviations. ⑹ A significant steepening of the U.S. bond yield curve usually reflects increased market concerns about long-term inflation or fiscal prospects, and may also imply that expectations for the Fed's future interest rate cut path are concentrated in shorter maturities.

It was revealed that the earthquake resistance data was deliberately underestimated, and the restart review of Japan's Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant is facing delay

Central Japan Electric Power www.xmtraders.company announced on the 5th that during the www.xmtraders.compliance review process of the Atomic Energy Regulatory www.xmtraders.commission's new safety standards before the restart of Units 3 and 4 of the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant (located in Omaezaki City, Shizuoka Prefecture), there is suspicion that the seismic shaking amplitude (base earthquake), which is a basic indicator of earthquake resistance design, was deliberately underestimated. The www.xmtraders.company has established a third-party www.xmtraders.committee www.xmtraders.composed of outside lawyers to determine the factual relationship and reasons. The Regulatory www.xmtraders.committee has suspended its review since December 22, 2025, and determined that the behavior was an "illegal operation" and will discuss subsequent response measures at its regular meeting on the 7th of this month. The time for approval of the review and restart of the unit is expected to be inevitably delayed.

Mexico issued a massive US$9 billion in bonds, and demand from international investors exceeded expectations

⑴The Mexican government successfully raised US$9 billion through the issuance of long-term bonds on Tuesday, meeting most of its foreign currency financing needs in 2026. ⑵ This issuance is divided into three maturity types: US$3 billion of 8-year bonds with a coupon rate of 5.625%; US$4 billion of 12-year bonds with an interest rate of 6.125%; and US$2 billion of 30-year bonds with an interest rate of 6.750%. ⑶The market subscription demand is extremely strong.The order size reached 30 billion U.S. dollars, and the subscription ratio was as high as 3.3 times, showing the strong confidence of international capital in Mexico's sovereign credit. ⑷ A total of 279 international institutional investors from various regions around the world participated in this subscription, indicating that Mexican assets have received support from a broad and dispersed investor base. ⑸ This successful bond issuance provides the Mexican government with ample external funds, helps stabilize its financial situation, and may set a positive benchmark for other emerging market sovereign debt issuances.

Trump insists on swallowing up Greenland, and European unity faces a severe stress test

⑴ Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that US President Trump’s remarks of intending to take over Greenland must be taken seriously and clearly rejected this attempt. ⑵ In an interview on Monday, Trump reiterated that "Greenland is needed for national security" and said he is "very serious" about the matter. This makes the threat no longer simply regarded as his usual exaggerated remarks. ⑶ Europe was shocked almost speechless by the previous military actions of the United States. It failed to show strong solidarity with Denmark, a member of NATO and the European Union, exposing Europe's slowness and disagreement in responding to direct external pressure. ⑷The Greenland issue is related to the strategic interests of the entire Europe, and its importance far exceeds its small economic size. Its rich key mineral resources such as rare earths and lithium are one of the core goals that Trump intends to acquire. ⑸ To prevent NATO from falling into a serious crisis or even disintegration, Europe must take immediate action to support Denmark and demonstrate a credible deterrent posture, including considering sending a small number of troops from Germany, France and other countries. ⑹ Europe faces a dilemma: it may need to regard the United States as a hostile force, but at the same time it can also seek ways to cooperate with Washington, such as providing cooperation programs in monitoring regional shipping or jointly developing mineral resources. ⑺European leaders need to prove their seriousness. The current action is the only meaningful way to show their determination and not give in to bullying. It is also a reality test of Europe's determination and ability to independently defend itself.

The European Stability Mechanism successfully issued bonds, with strong short-term financing demand and active market subscriptions

⑴ The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) successfully issued 1.086 billion euros of three-month bonds on Tuesday. ⑵The average yield of this issuance is 1.978%, reflecting the current market interest rate level for short-term financing in the Eurozone. ⑶The bid multiple is 2.9, indicating strong market demand and enthusiastic subscription by institutional investors, showing confidence in ESM's credit qualifications. ⑷ This successful bond issuance will help the ESM raise low-cost funds for its aid projects and fulfill its function as the euro zone’s permanent crisis resolution mechanism. ⑸Against the current backdrop of uncertainty about the outlook for global interest rates, the solid bidding results also demonstrate the market’s continued preference for high-quality short-term assets issued by core institutions in the euro area.

The EU plans to significantly increase steel import tariffs, and downstream industry associations jointly warn of "over-protection"

The strengthened trade protection measures proposed by the European www.xmtraders.commission to protect the local steel industry are triggering strong concerns and opposition from its internal downstream industries. including european carsTen industry associations, including the Manufacturers Association and the Metal Packaging Association, issued a joint statement on Tuesday, warning that the EU plans to significantly increase tariffs on imported steel and reduce duty-free quotas, which may seriously damage the www.xmtraders.competitiveness of exporters within the EU. The statement pointed out that the proposal intends to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported steel that exceeds the quota and cut the duty-free import quota by nearly half. This "over-fence" approach to the European market will not only cause relevant industries to face billions of euros in additional tariff costs, but will also significantly increase administrative burdens. The industries argue that measures to protect the steel industry should be done without sacrificing wider economic interests.

The polarization of the global bond market has intensified, and the interest rate difference between the United States and Germany reveals the code of capital flows

⑴ As of Tuesday’s data, the German 2-year government bond yield is 2.128%, and the 10-year yield is 2.864%, becoming the core interest rate anchor of the euro zone. ⑵ www.xmtraders.compared with the German benchmark, the interest rate difference between Australia and the United Kingdom and the United States is the most significant, with its 2-year yields being 194.1 and 159.3 basis points higher respectively, indicating that the market has higher interest rate or inflation expectations for these economies. ⑶ U.S. Treasury bond yields are overall higher than those of Germany, with the 2-year interest rate spread reaching 134.5 basis points and the 10-year interest rate spread at 132.7 basis points. This mainly reflects the differences in the monetary policy paths between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. ⑷The Japanese government bond yield is the lowest among major economies, and its 2-year yield is 94.9 basis points lower than that of Germany, highlighting the unique stance of the Bank of Japan in maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy. ⑸In the Eurozone, the government bond yields of Italy, France and other countries are higher than those of Germany. Among them, Italy's 10-year interest rate spread is 69.7 basis points, which continues to reflect its sovereign credit risk premium. ⑹ The yield on British government bonds is significantly higher than that in Europe and the United States, with its 10-year yield reaching 4.518%, showing the market's continued concerns about domestic inflationary pressure and fiscal conditions in the UK. ⑺The current pattern of global government bond yields clearly depicts the cost map of capital. High-interest monetary assets attract capital inflows, while countries in a low-interest environment face pressure from capital outflows. Interest rate trades will continue to affect foreign exchange and capital market trends.

Geopolitical concerns have temporarily pushed U.S. bond yields up, with the market focusing on non-agricultural data

U.S. bond yields fluctuated upward during the European session, mainly because market concerns about geopolitical risks have eased. However, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI data released on Monday was lower than expected, once again highlighting the fragility of the economic outlook and showing signs of cooling in the labor market. Naga analyst Frank Walbaum pointed out that if the weak data continues, it may strengthen the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift to a more dovish stance in 2026. Currently, interest rate futures have priced in two interest rate cuts before the end of the year. The market will focus on the non-farm payrolls data to be released this Friday. As of press time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 2.2 basis points to 4.184%.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is currently at 1.1706, a decrease of 0.13%. Before the New York market opened, (EURUSD) fell in price during the last intraday trade, and the relative strength indicator began to form a negative divergence. After reaching overbought levels, it was exaggerated www.xmtraders.compared to the price trend, while a negative overlapping signal appeared. The negative pressure continued as its price was below the EMA50 and was dominated by bearish correction fluctuations in the short term.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell, now trading at 1.3518, a decrease of 0.17%. Before the New York session, GBPUSD experienced a sharp and sudden rise in the latest intraday trade, breaking through the key resistance of 1.3525, taking advantage of the dynamic support represented by its exchange above the EMA50. In the short term, the main bullish trend dominates, with trades along the trend lines supporting this trajectory. On the other hand, we note that after reaching overbought levels, the relative strength indicator showed a negative overlapping signal, which may slow the rise with the same previous strong momentum.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 4464.88, an increase of 0.34%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) prices have fallen in recent intraday trade, collecting gains from previous gains in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that may help it recover and rise again, trying to escape some clear overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially with the short-term primary bullish trend dominating, with dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50, strengthening the chances of a near-term price recovery.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 78.453, an increase of 2.47%. Silver prices fell slightly in the last trading session in the New York pre-market as the key resistance stabilized at $78.10, trying to gain the positive momentum needed to break through the resistance. It was trading above the EMA50, dominated by the main short-term bullish trend, and its trading was along the trend line supporting this trajectory, accompanied by the emergence of positive signals from the relative strength indicator, although it stabilized at overbought levels.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 58.590, an increase of 0.48%. (Crude oil) prices surged in the final trading session before the New York market opened, as it relied on support from the EMA50 to gain bullish momentum that helped achieve these strong gains, preparing to attack.Hitting key resistance at $58.70, the advance came as the relative strength indicator turned negative, indicating the strength of the bullish momentum surrounding the price.

4. Institutional view

Morgan Stanley: Betting on gold prices reaching US$4,800, and the www.xmtraders.commodity bull market deepening

⑴Morgan Stanley released a report predicting that gold prices will reach US$4,800 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, breaking the historical record set last year. ⑵ The core reasons given by the bank include: the downward trend of global interest rates, the change of leadership of the Federal Reserve, and the continued purchasing needs of central banks and funds. ⑶Although it was not included in the specific target price consideration, the report acknowledged that geopolitical turmoil such as the Venezuela incident over the weekend will attract safe-haven buyers and further support gold prices. ⑷The report is also optimistic about silver, pointing out that the market has reached a peak supply and demand deficit in 2025, and China's export license requirements implemented since the beginning of this year have increased the "upside risk" of silver. ⑸In the field of basic metals, the bank favors aluminum and copper, both of which face supply challenges and demand growth. The rise in premiums in the U.S. Midwest suggests a return to demand, while supply disruptions in copper are extending from 2025 to 2026. ⑹ The report also mentioned that the nickel market has strengthened due to the risk of supply interruption in Indonesia, but suggested that its price may have partially digested this factor. ⑺ Overall, this forecast depicts a www.xmtraders.commodity bull market driven by macro liquidity expectations, structural supply and demand gaps and geopolitical risk aversion. The prices of precious metals and key industrial metals are both bullish.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Venezuelan crude oil is about to be lifted, short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on January 6". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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