The next day when the government shutdown entered, the analysis of the short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 2

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures fell 0.02%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.25%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.49%. The German DAX index rose 1.27%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.04%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.41%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.1.52%.

2. Market news interpretation

The government shutdown enters the next day: Trump will meet with specific "Democratic institutions" to cut the reduction list

Trump said he will meet with White House Budget Office Director Wat to discuss potential reduction plans for the federal employee team. This move aims to increase pressure on the Democratic Party and force the latter to agree to end the government shutdown that has entered the next day. Trump said on social media on Thursday that the meeting would "determine which Democratic-related agencies he proposed to cut—most of which are political scams—and whether the cuts should be temporary or permanent." Trump's remarks escalated a Republican threat - to use the opportunity of the government to significantly reduce the size of federal executives. The White House has previously released news and will announce a layoff plan as early as Thursday. Water has also begun to suspend funding for New York City transportation projects and clean energy projects in states that support Democrat Harris in the 2024 election.

U.S. Treasury bonds maintain rising employment data points to further rate cuts

U.S. Treasury bonds are on the rise in private sector employment dataThe bet on the Fed's interest rate cut this month remained on the rise. The biennial yield fell to its lowest point since September 18 by 3.53% on Wednesday. Ten-year bond yields also stabilized at 4.09% after falling by 5 basis points. Challenger employment data released Thursday on data on U.S. employers’ recruitment plans to scale back in September after market response was flat. The federal shutdown could delay the release of a series of key statistics, including Friday's non-farm employment report, which also led to Wednesday's ADP report having an unprecedented impact on the U.S. bond market. If the long-term shutdown hits the economy, the government shutdown itself could intensify market bets on downside interest rates, UBS InvestmentBank strategist Elena Amoruso said. "The government shutdown may be more favorable to interest rates to some extent because it may drag down economic activity," she wrote in a note. Amoruso noted that Wednesday's ISM data also reinforced the impression of a weaker U.S. economy. Traders are currently betting that the Fed has a 25 basis point cut this month with a probability of more than 90%.

Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture raised its winter grain planting area by 8%

Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs said the country has raised its winter grain planting area by 8% to 5.2 million hectares of 12.8 million acres, www.xmtraders.compared with the previous estimate of about 4.8 million hectares.

The U.S. job market is stagnating: recruitment plans hit a 16-year low under the layoffs

⑴ The number of layoffs planned by US employers in September fell 37% from the previous month to 54,064. ⑵The cumulative number of layoffs so far this year has reached 946,426, the highest level since 2020. ⑶The total number of recruitment plans so far this year is only 204,939, the lowest since the economy just emerged from the Great Recession in 2009. ⑷ Reports from global agency Challenger have attracted much attention due to the government shutdown, resulting in the lack of official data. ⑸ The government shutdown has postponed the release of non-agricultural employment reports, the number of people requesting unemployment benefits every week, factory orders and construction industry data. ⑹This is the 15th government shutdown since 1981, resulting in 750,000 federal staff being forced to take unpaid leave. ⑺ Government departments account for the majority of planned layoffs, and have announced layoffs of 299,755 so far this year. ⑻The booming development of artificial intelligence technology has led to the layoffs of 107,878 employees in technology www.xmtraders.companies so far this year. ⑼Senior Vice President Andrew Challenger pointed out that the labor market is facing multiple challenges of stagnation, rising costs and transformative new technologies. ⑽If the government shutdown continues, CPI, retail sales, new home starts and producer inflation reports will not be released as scheduled next week.

The Kasan Brigade said it fired multiple rockets at Ashdod, Israel

On October 2, local time, the Kasan Brigade, an armed faction under the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), announced that on the evening of the 1st, the militants of the troops fired multiple rockets at Ashdod, Israel in retaliation for the Israeli attack on civilians. According to previous reports, on the evening of the 1st local time, several rockets came from the Gaza Strip to Israel from the Gaza StripNei Ashdod launched, and a huge explosion came from above Ashdod and an air defense alarm had been sounded.

The energy giant behind Buffett's 9.7 billion yuan purchases turn around

⑴Official Petroleum announced on Thursday that it will sell its petrochemical division to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion. ⑵The deal is the latest in a series of divestiture plans the www.xmtraders.company has undertaken to cut debts. ⑶OxyChem, which is for sale, produces vinyl products required for swimming pool processing chemicals and water supply pipelines and medical supplies. ⑷If the transaction is successfully www.xmtraders.completed, it will be the largest transaction since Berkshire acquired Alleghany Corporation for US$11.6 billion in 2022. ⑸Official Petroleum currently bears US$23.34 billion in debt, mainly due to the $55 billion acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum in 2019. ⑹ Last year, the www.xmtraders.company www.xmtraders.completed its acquisition of CrownRock for another $12 billion, further deepening its debt burden. ⑺The asset sale shows that Occupy Petroleum is refocusing on its main oil and gas business, which contributed 75% of its total revenue last year. ⑻The total revenue of the OxyChem department in the first two quarters of this year reached US$2.42 billion. ⑼Berkshire currently holds about 27% of Occupy Oil's outstanding shares, and its holdings began around February 2022 before and after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

European employment alert: The turning point of the unemployment rate in a low-growth environment

⑴Analysts pointed out that in the context of the continued insufficient growth momentum, the euro area unemployment rate may continue to rise. ⑵ Latest data show that the region's unemployment rate has risen slightly to 6.3% in August, but is still in a historical low. ⑶ Looking ahead, weak economic growth is expected to put pressure on the employment market of the 20-country monetary unions. ⑷ Despite facing downward risks, analysts believe that the current basic trend remains relatively stable.

The US-European trade shows dawn: the framework of the agreement has been fully www.xmtraders.complied with by the US

⑴ The EU Trade www.xmtraders.commissioner said that the United States is still fully www.xmtraders.complying with the framework trade agreement reached with the EU so far. ⑵The agreement includes protecting EU wood, semiconductor and pharmaceutical products from higher tariffs. ⑶ www.xmtraders.commissioner Maroche Sevchovich confirmed at the Dublin meeting that all content in the joint statement was respected. ⑷ Future negotiations will involve multiple industries such as steel, wine, spirits and beer. ⑸ He stressed that both sides must be continuously prepared for "permanent relationship management".

Energy changes under the sanctions storm: Middle East fuel oil surges in the U.S. Gulf Coast

⑴ U.S. Gulf Coast fuel oil imports surged to a two-and-a-half-year high in September. The jump in Middle East cargo volume is the core driving force, and refiners are actively looking for alternative sources of Venezuelan crude oil. ⑵ Fuel oil imports in the region have continued to rise since July, with an estimated 541,000 barrels per day in September, the highest since February 2023, with supply from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait setting a record in August-September. ⑶ Sanctions against Russia have caused domestic fuel oil inventories to drop, forcing refinersTurn to the Middle East to seek alternative resources to fill the gap in supply of heavy crude oil. ⑷ Shipping data shows that it is economically feasible to use Suez tankers to transport Iraqi high-sulfur fuel oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast since early July. ⑸ The end of the Middle East power generation peak season releases more high-sulfur residue fuel oil resources, just to meet the strong demand of US Gulf Coast refiners. ⑹Analysts pointed out that the current supply of high-sulfur residue fuel oil is abundant, and the US refining system urgently needs such raw materials to improve diesel output efficiency. ⑺ Refinery sources confirmed that the reduction in Venezuela's supply and the increase in fuel oil in the Middle East, coupled with considerable profits, have led to an increase in processing volume in the past two months. ⑻ The Gulf Coast refining device is designed to treat heavy sulfur-containing crude oil, and can flexibly switch to fuel oil as a replacement raw material when supply is tight in Latin America. ⑼ The region's crude oil imports continued to decline, falling to the lowest level since November 2022, of 880,000 barrels per day in September, highlighting the transformation of raw material structure. ⑽The United States' crude oil imports from Venezuela have dropped sharply, with weekly imports of only 49,000 barrels per day recently, plunging more than 80% from its January high. ⑾Analysts stressed that the shortage of heavy crude oil supply is forcing refiners to increase imports of residue fuel oil to maintain the normal operation of the unit. ⑿U.S. residue fuel oil inventories fell to 20.63 million barrels last week, a decrease of nearly 30% from the same period before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, confirming profound changes in the supply pattern.

European energy game: gas price dilemma under strike and wind power struggle

⑴ Wholesale natural gas prices in the Netherlands and the UK remained stable early on Thursday. The supply reduction caused by the strike at the French liquefied natural gas receiving station offset the strong wind power output suppressed power generation demand. ⑵ The benchmark Dutch TTF contract rose slightly by 0.03 euros to 31.45 euros per megawatt-hour. ⑶Day contracts in the Netherlands fell by 0.55 euros to 31.40 euros per megawatt-hour. ⑷UK natural gas prices rose by 0.18p to 80.73p per Sam in November. ⑸ The French trade union strike has affected the supply of Dunkirk's liquefied natural gas terminals. ⑹ Operator Fluxys said Dunkirk's transport capacity will drop from a daily maximum of 520 GWh to 44 GWh on October 1 and 48 GWh on October 2. ⑺ But the decline in supply was partially offset by weaker gas demand in power plants. ⑻Analysts pointed out that wind power generation in Northwest Europe is rising rapidly and there will be strong winds on the weekend. ⑼ Data shows that gas demand in non-local distribution areas in Northwest Europe is expected to fall by 519 GWh to 1914 GWh. ⑽Analysts believe demand is relatively weak, and the market lacks other major drivers in the context of continued gas injection in gas storage before the heating season. ⑾The filling rate of European natural gas storage facilities has reached 84.8%. ⑿The European carbon market benchmark contract rose 0.28 euros to 76.61 euros per metric tonne.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1748, an increase of 0.15%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EURUSD) closed up in the latest intraday trading, and was subject to relative strength indicators.The support of positive signals has been made, after reaching oversold levels, breaking through the negative pressure of EMA50, which is a key step in its recovery and challenges short-term correction of the trend line.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3481, an increase of 0.03%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) prices traded at the level of the most recent trading day, trying to collect gains from previous gains and attempt to obtain bullish momentum that could help it recover and rise again, bullish correction waves dominate on a short-term basis, and trading along a relatively steep trend line, indicating the strength and dominance of this trend, especially the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50. After the price successfully got rid of the overbought state, in addition to the positive overlapping signals on the relative strength indicators, the opportunity for prices to recover on the near-term basis was strengthened, opening up the way for more profits.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3882.81, an increase of 0.45%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (gold) price rose in the last intraday trading, approaching its main resistance for the first time in its history by $3,900, supported by positive signals on the relative signal indicators, after forming a positive divergence, after reaching an oversold level, it was exaggerated www.xmtraders.compared to price movements, with a major bullish trend dominant on a short-term basis and trading along the support trend line.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 47.645, an increase of 0.75%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price tried to break through the stubborn resistance of $4.750 on the last trading day, with the main bullish trend dominating in the short term, and its trading followed the secondary support trend line of the track. As its trading is above the EMA50, positive pressure continues, and positive signals appearing in the relative strength indicators, after unloading the overbought conditions, it opens the way for more profits to be achieved in the future.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 61.480, a drop of 0.49%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (crude oil) fell in the latest intraday trading, falling below the key support level of $61.50, paving the way for a further break, but we still need to close below this level. In addition, due to itsThe trading price is lower than EMA50, coupled with the negative overlap signal on the relative strength indicator, a negative divergence occurs after the price trend reaches an exaggerated level relative to the excessive overbought level, further strengthening the bearish trend scenario.

4. Institutional view

Citi: Xiaomi's electric vehicle order volume is still high, and the average selling price per vehicle is expected to remain stable in the third quarter.

Citi issued a report saying that Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) delivered more than 40,000 electric vehicles in September, higher than 36,000 in August, driven by continued productivity improvements. The bank pointed out that despite the recent slowdown in electric vehicle orders, existing order volumes remain high, and orders can be improved with the shortened waiting time and the introduction of new versions. The bank estimates that Yu7 delivery accounts for 40% of the total volume in the third quarter, and Su7 and Su7 Ultra delivery accounts for 55% and 5% each, which means that the average selling price per vehicle is expected to be stable quarter by quarter.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The next day when the government shutdown enters, the analysis of the short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 2". It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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