G7 plans to reach an agreement to significantly increase sanctions on Russia, and analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 1

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.26%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.42%. The German DAX index rose 0.52%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.68%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.48%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.41%.

2. Market news interpretation

G7 plans to reach an agreement to significantly increase sanctions against Russia, targeting the energy, finance and military industry.

A draft statement shows that the G7 is about to reach an agreement. Since Russia is unwilling to end the conflict, the G7 will significantly increase sanctions against Russia. "We agree that it is necessary to act together and believe that it is time to coordinate the upgrade measures significantly to enhance Ukraine's resilience and seriously weaken Russia's capabilities," the draft said. People familiar with the matter said that the G7 Treasury Secretary is scheduled to hold discussions next Wednesday, and the contents of the statement may still change before the statement is finalized and signed by all seven countries, including the United States. Other members of the G7 include the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada. The current draft shows that the G7 is working on a range of options, including new measures in key economic areas such as energy, finance and military industry, as well as targeting countries and entities that have helped the Moscow war effort and help it circumvent existing sanctions. The draft statement also shows that finance ministers will also discuss Ukraine's funding needs, including coordinating the further use of frozen Russian central bank assets.

EU plans to raise steel import tariffs European steel stocks rise/h4>

European steel stocks rose intraday, with ArcelorMittal's stock price rising by 4.4%, VoestalpineAG rising by 4.7% to a new high in more than two years, OutokumpuOyj rising by 5% and SSABAB rising by 8.7%. The EU plans to raise steel import tariffs to help local producers cope with the impact of factors such as U.S. trade barriers.

The shutdown of the US government has caused hidden secrets in the European bond market yield curve

⑴The euro zone treasury bond yield remained basically the same, and Germany's 10-year benchmark yield remained at a narrow range of fluctuations around 2.02%. ⑵ Investors closely monitor the trends of US bonds, and the duration of the US government shutdown has become a key variable affecting global bond markets. ⑶ Data shows that the euro zone's inflation accelerated in September, but it is in line with the European Central Bank's forecast of the path of core inflation slowing to 2.2% in the fourth quarter. ⑷ Citi economists pointed out that after the actual wage catch-up process is www.xmtraders.completed, wage growth in 2026 will further soften and drive service inflation to fall. ⑸ The market expects that the European Central Bank’s probability of interest rate cuts in July is about 30%, and the key interest rate is expected to drop to 1.98% by February 2027. ⑹The spread of 10-year government bonds between France and Germany remained at 82 basis points, close to a seven-month high, reflecting continued investors' concerns about France's fiscal deficit.

Forex options become a market vane and hide the global capital hedging password

⑴Forex options market can clearly reflect macro sentiment than spot exchange rates, and reveal investors' true expectations through risk pricing. ⑵ Implicit volatility captures future price volatility expectations, and risk reversal indicators highlight the market's directional preference for rising and falling risks. ⑶ The volatility term structure shows uncertain pricing in different time dimensions, providing key dimensions for judging the evolution of market sentiment. ⑷ Option flow and pricing indicators together form a three-dimensional map of market collective thinking, which often leads the spot market to respond. ⑸ In an environment where policy uncertainty is intensifying, the option market has become a real-time www.xmtraders.compass for insight into capital flows and risk appetite.

Crude oil bulls and bears fight fiercely with $65 OPEC + production increase doubts overwhelming the market

⑴Brent crude oil fell slightly by 4 cents to $65.99 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by 5 cents to $62.32, stabilizing after two consecutive days of decline. ⑵OPEC+ may approve production increases of up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, reaching three times the increase in October, with sources saying Saudi Arabia intends to re-election for market share. ⑶ US API data showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 3.67 million barrels last week, but gasoline and distillate inventories rose, reflecting the differentiation of demand structure. ⑷ Asia's manufacturing PMI has generally shrunk, the US government's shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, and multiple factors have aggravated demand concerns. ⑸ Analysts pointed out that the slowdown in U.S. crude oil inventories has slowed down, Ukraine continues to attack Russian supply facilities, and geopolitical risks support the bottom of oil prices. ⑹OPEC officially denied rumors of a 500,000 barrel increase in production, and the results of this weekend's oil-producing national meeting will become a key variable that determines the direction of prices in the fourth quarter.

The US auto market grew against the trend in the third quarter by 6% tax policyLast bus effect

⑴U.S. car sales in the third quarter are expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 4.14 million vehicles, triggering a wave of electric vehicles before the end of the tax credit policy. ⑵Trump tax bill canceled the $7,500 tax incentive for new energy vehicles on September 30, directly stimulating the pulse growth of sales at the end of the quarter. ⑶ Trump's tariff remarks have pushed up the import cost of parts, demand for medium-sized crossovers and pickup trucks remains strong, and automakers have gradually shifted cost pressure. ⑷GM maintains the top sales list, Toyota North America and Ford ranked second and third respectively, and Tesla's sales are expected to decline by nearly 6%. ⑸ The average retail price of new cars in September hit US$45,795, up US$1,310 from the same period last year, and the price increase showed a monthly expansion trend. ⑹Institutions predict that automobile demand will cool down at the end of the year, concerns about affordability and the decline in electric vehicle sales will exacerbate the industry's headwinds.

Ghana's inflation plummeted to 9.4%, the central bank's interest rate cut of 350 basis points has begun to show results

⑴ Ghana's inflation rate fell to 9.4% for the ninth consecutive month, the lowest level since August 2021, a significant improvement from the previous value of 11.5%. ⑵ The head of the government's statistics bureau pointed out that the decline in food prices is the main driving force, and the pressure on non-food prices has been eased simultaneously. ⑶ The central bank implemented a record 350 basis point interest rate cut in September, lowering key interest rates to 21.5%, as inflation continued to improve and macro prospects improved. ⑷ Authorities expect inflation to return to the medium-term target range of 6%-10% in the fourth quarter, marking the country's worst economic crisis in decades.

Central and Eastern European currencies collectively counterattacked the dollar's decline and triggered an arbitrage carnival

⑴Hungarian Forint led the Central and Eastern European currencies, appreciating 0.3% against the euro to 388.60, breaking from the 15-month high set in mid-September. ⑵ The Czech Krona rose 0.2% against the euro to 24.281, and analysts pointed out that the currency lacked new stimulus to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations. ⑶Polish zloty rose slightly by 0.1% to 4.2585, continuing to operate near the upper edge of the recent fluctuation range. ⑷Hungary's PMI rose to 51.5 and returned to the expansion range, with new orders and production improving across the board, while Bojie's manufacturing industry is still in a contraction state. ⑸ The US government shutdown pushed the US dollar to a new weekly low, emerging market currencies took advantage of the trend to strengthen, delaying non-agricultural data exacerbating policy uncertainty.

The yield curve of EU bills is steep. Short-term interest rates are differentiated.

⑴ The European www.xmtraders.commission successfully auctioned 3-month notes, with an average yield of 1.951%. ⑵ The average yield of 6-month notes is 1.988%, an increase of 3.7 basis points www.xmtraders.compared with short-term varieties. ⑶The yield of 12-month notes further rose to 2.022%, and the yield curve showed a continuous steepening trend. ⑷ The differentiation of bill interest rates for different terms reflects the market's obvious expectations for the European Central Bank's short-term policy path.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1757, an increase of 0.20%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EURUSD)The net fell in the latest intraday trading, affected by the stability of the 1.1760 resistance level, and at the same time, the relative strength indicators showed a negative divergence, and a bearish signal was revealed. In the short term, the price of the bearish correction wave is dominated by the bearish correction wave, and the negative pressure brought by the continued lower than the EMA50 transactions have further exacerbated the downward pressure on the pair.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3504, an increase of 0.44%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fell slightly in the last stage of intraday trading. It was affected by the EMA50 resistance level, which forced it to fall, especially the relative strength indicators to show negative signals, indicating a negative divergence. If the negative signal continues, it will intensify downward pressure, and bearish fluctuations dominate in the short term.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3876.28, an increase of 0.47%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (gold) price approached a resistance barrier of $3,900 for the first time ever at its intraday level, supported by its ongoing trading above the EMA50 and dominated by major bullish trends and trades along the slashes, in addition, positive signals appeared on the relative strength indicator, despite reaching overbought levels, which reduced upcoming earnings.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 47.273, an increase of 1.47%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price settled earnings on the last trading day, trying to reach the current resistance level of $47.50, with the main bullish trend dominating in the short term, and its trading follows the primary and secondary trend lines indicating the strength and dominance of the track, in addition, positive signals appearing in the relative strength indicators, as well as the continued positive pressure from trading above the EMA50, representing a dynamic support that contributes to the stability of the bullish track.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 62.000, a drop of 0.58%. Before New York, the price of (crude oil) rose in the last intraday trading, affected by its touch on our last target, the key support level $61.50, which provides positive momentum to help it rebound to rise, trying to cover some of its previous declines, while still trading lowOn EMA50, negative pressure continues, coupled with negative signals on the relative strength indicators, and the release of oversold conditions in previous trading, which increases the recent bearish pressure.

4. Institutional View

Fitch Rating: Thailand faces long-term growth and fiscal pressure

⑴Fitch Rating pointed out at the annual meeting of Thailand held today that Thailand is facing slowing global growth, weakening fiscal buffers and increasing economic pressure caused by US tariffs. ⑵Fitch expects global economic growth to slow from 2.9% last year to 2.4% in 2025, with U.S. tariffs pose a resistance to most Asian economies. ⑶Fitch recently adjusted Thailand'BBB+' rating outlook from stable to negative, reflecting the long-term policy uncertainty and slowdown in global demand, delayed recovery in tourism and increased public fiscal risks to the country. ⑷ Thailand's banking industry's profitability and asset quality are showing a deteriorating trend, and non-performing loans are rising, but key buffer indicators such as loan loss provision coverage ratio and core capital are still better than regional peers.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: G7 plans to reach an agreement to significantly increase sanctions on Russia, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 1st". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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