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The U.S. government will spend all its money, and both parties will fight to the death for medical treatment
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Group】: The US government will spend all its money, and the two parties will fight to the death for medical treatment." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The U.S. government funds will be officially exhausted on Tuesday night. As of now, the two parties have not reached an agreement to avoid the shutdown. The crisis has entered the "last window period." If the plan cannot be finalized before 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, the federal government will face a shutdown - this is the first possible federal government shutdown in Trump's second term.
The key node lies in the high-risk talks at the White House on Monday: President Trump will meet with four core leaders of Congress (leaders of both the Senate and the House of Representatives). The result of this www.xmtraders.communication is likely to determine whether the shutdown will "become." Previously, Trump had suddenly canceled talks with Democratic leaders, which once made the risk of shutdown soar to a "almost inevitable" level. The specific situation is as follows:
The game between the two parties: medical policies become the focus, and the struggle for power leverage is obvious
The differences between the two parties are concentrated on the bottom line of medical policies and negotiations, and both hold certain bargaining chips.
The Republican Party’s position: Since taking full control of the White House and Congress last year, it advocated promoting appropriations according to its own leading plan, refused to negotiate on the “short-term provisional bill”, and was only willing to www.xmtraders.compromise with the Democratic Party against the “long-term appropriations bill”; at the same time, it accused the Democratic Party of threatening the “government shutdown” to promote the extreme left demands.
Democratic bargaining chips: Although the Republicans control the bureau, the Senate needs 60 votes to pass the bill (the Republicans only have 53 seats), and the Democratic Party has the leverage of the key votes. Its core demands include: extending subsidies that expire at the end of the year, revoking Trump's previous cuts to Medicaid; and refuting the Republican allegations that "providing medical insurance for illegal immigrants" are lies.
Historical reference: Half a year ago, the Democratic Party www.xmtraders.compromised against the Republican Appropriation Act, but this time it was clearly stated that "it is necessary to support it in the final legislation.Have the right to speak, and is unwilling to make concessions.
The government shutdown curbs market preferences and increases social burden
From people's livelihood to the economy, shutdown may trigger a chain reaction, putting additional pressure on the already vulnerable US economy, affecting the value of the US dollar endorsed by the credit of the US government.
The people's livelihood directly affects: millions of federal employees (including military personnel) will suspend pay, and hundreds of thousands of people will face temporary dismissal; even if wages are reissued after the shutdown, short-term cash flow pressure will impact the consumption capacity of middle- and low-income families - and the current U.S. inflation is still Higher and higher, further amplify the burden of people's livelihood.
Economic fundamental risks: The US economy has shown a "differentiation signal" (the stock market highs coexist with the pressure of entities), and the shutdown may aggravate the vulnerability: On the one hand, the damage caused by Trump's tariffs to farmers and small businesses is still continuing; on the other hand, the employment market for college graduates is sluggish, and the shutdown may lead to the stagnation of the government's relevant employment support policies, further curbing domestic demand.
Policy uncertainty shock: For the financial market, the government's shutdown will aggravate the uncertainty of the "policy window period" and may suppress market risk preferences— ——Especially, the market has differences on the Fed’s policy path. If the shutdown leads to delayed release of economic data, it may also interfere with the pace of monetary policy decision-making. This is a threat to the US stock index, which was named by Powell.
Summary: The talks have become a "life-saving straw", and the actions of the Senate and the House of Representatives are lagging behind.
The current negotiations still have two key obstacles, increasing the difficulty of implementing the agreement: House of Representatives time difference: House of Representatives has passed the "temporary appropriations bill" (extending funds until November 21), but the House of Representatives resumed on October 7 (one week after the shutdown); Once an agreement is reached, it is necessary to temporarily recall the members to return to work to vote, which is difficult to operate. Senate veto record: The Senate has also vetoed the Republican interim bill and the Democratic health care + appropriation bundling plan, and the consensus base of both parties in the Senate is weak.
However, Monday's talks themselves sent a signal that "both parties are unwilling to take the blame" - both sides are worried that they will be held accountable after the shutdown, which reserves a little possibility for "last-time www.xmtraders.compromise". But from the current situation, if the talks still have no substantial progress, the risk of shutdown will remain high.
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