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Who will implement non-agricultural and funding first? US dollar "news market" is in progress
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Who will land first on non-agricultural and appropriations? The US dollar "news market" is in progress". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (September 29), the US dollar index (DXY) traded below 98 during the European period, and it was still under pressure; the external equity market futures index is relatively strong, while the price elasticity of safe-haven assets is greater, and spot gold has surged above US$3,800.
The biggest macro variable this week is that the US government may shut down at midnight on Tuesday, coupled with the possibility of non-farm employment being forced to postpone the release, the US dollar enters a dual game period of "message-driven + technology correction" before the boots land.
Branditional: Two main lines are intertwined—"countdown to shutdown" and "whether non-agricultural absent"
First, fiscal uncertainty is heating up. The two parties remain stalemate on the short-term appropriation bill. Although the Republicans have the dominance of the two houses, at least 60 votes are still required to pass the Senate. The Democrats insist on withdrawing the previous reduction in the medical budget. As the critical point approaches, the market begins to price the "government shutdown" scenario: since the latter part of last week, the US dollar's surge from above 98.60 has not expanded, and it has continued its pullback at the beginning of this week, with DXY's latest down 0.25% around 97.90. President Trump's meeting with four congressional leaders on Monday was seen as a "last fight", but the pre-sessional Senate procedural vote could still push the situation to a halt. If the shutdown is www.xmtraders.completed, according to the experience in 2013, about 850,000 federal employees may be affected, and the September non-farm report this Friday may be directly postponed, and the data vacuum will raise volatility to a level during the period of dense news.
The second is that the path of monetary policy has swayed again. The Fed's internal perspectives have increased: new voter Stephen Miran released a dove-like expectation of a rate cut last week, while officials including Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly emphasized caution. The probability of futures market cuts interest rates in October is close to 90%., but the remote end (2026) only included "slightly more than two" interest rate cuts; if the shutdown triggers faster rebalancing of employment pressure, this pricing may be raised. Meanwhile, Vice Chairman Bowman bluntly stated that “we are seriously behind the situation” and that if the labor situation continues to deteriorate, policies need to be “more quicker and more substantial”.
The third is the increase in data sensitivity. Regarding non-agricultural work in September, the market unanimously expected that about 50,000 new jobs would be created, higher than 20,000 in August, but it was still in the "weak range", with the unemployment rate likely to remain 4.3%, and the hourly wage was about 3.7% year-on-year. If the reading is cold, the US dollar may be under relatively pressure; if the reading is hot, the argument for interest rate cuts in October will be weakened against the backdrop of GDP being revised upward in the second quarter, and the US dollar is expected to obtain phased support.
Technical aspect:
Daily chart shows that the middle rail of the Bollinger band is located at 97.7516, the upper rail is 98.6588, and the lower rail is 96.8443; the current price is basically close to the middle rail, and is in the stage of "mean regression after the impact is blocked". After the nearest K-line formed a stage low point from 96.2109, it quickly rose to 98.5950 and failed to break through the upper track, and then retreated and oscillated near the middle track. In terms of indicator resonance:
—MACD: DIFF is -0.0321, DEA is -0.1356, histogram +0.2069, showing "secondary repair below the zero axis", kinetic energy turns positive but has not yet stood firm, typical "technical rebound enters the verification zone".
—RSI(14): Near 51.1980, it just crossed the 50 center, indicating a "slightly more but limited elasticity". In line with the Bollinger middle rail transverse direction, the trend has not yet been established.
—Price/bandwidth relationship: The upper shadow at 98.5950 last time did not cross the upper rail 98.6588, forming an "unconfirmed top-fallback"; the 96.8443 below and the 96.2109 above constitute a "double static support-dynamic belt bottom" www.xmtraders.combination.
The 97.7516 line is a short-term long-short watershed; if the upward challenge is 98.5950 and the volume is higher than 98.6588, the path of "belt edge upward → trend strengthening" is available; if the downward falls below the 97.50-97.75 range (the middle rail overlaps the proximal horizontal support), the retracement target will point to 96.8443. If it falls again, it is necessary to prevent the "lower edge confirmation" of 96.2109 from being tested.
Preview of market sentiment:
The "overlapping disturbance" of fiscal uncertainty and data vacuum is pushing sentiment to the two poles:
1) Hedge factor: Gold jumped above $3,800 during the session, and the typical "event-driven hedging expansion and contraction" has temporarily weakened synchronism with the US dollar, suggesting that the market is hedging the "extreme tail" rather than betting on the US dollar alone.
2) Equity risk preference: European and US stock index futures are stronger at the beginning of the week, but this is the result of a "pre-meeting game". If the Senate voting and negotiation rhythm is slightly unsatisfied, risk preference will retreat quickly.
3) Interest rate expectations: Fed officials' caliber differentiation,Bowman warns of the "backward curve", which increases the differences between "rate reduction amplitude and rhythm"; implicit volatility increases, and the US dollar is more likely to be pulled by headlines in the short term, and there is a tug-of-warning of "uppulsion-retreatment".
4) The logic of "bad news/good news" reappears: If the non-agricultural release is postponed, data dependence is forced to weaken, and the US dollar will be more driven by "fiscal farce"; if it is announced as scheduled and is weak, the US dollar will face the scissors gap between the three forces of "interest rate-growth-safe-hack" - the nominal interest rate path is more dovish (bad negative), and growth expectations are weaker (usually negative), but if it triggers the escalation of risk aversion, risk aversion may boost the relative attractiveness of the US dollar. Sentiment shifted from "direction" to "volatility", which is a key shift this week.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Who will land first on non-agricultural and appropriations? The US dollar "news market" is in progress". It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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