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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
-
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
-
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
-
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
2015最佳外汇交易平台
-
2015最佳金融交易平台
-
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
-
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
-
金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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market analysis
The risk of government shutdown suppresses the market, the US dollar index falls below the 50-day moving average
Wonderful Introduction:
If the sea loses the rolling waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the dancing of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its real journey, it will lose its meaning.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xmtraders.comment]: The risk of the government shutdown suppresses the market, and the US dollar index falls below the 50-day moving average." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Tuesday, the US dollar index remained volatile, and the US dollar fell against major currencies such as the euro and the yen on Monday, after strengthening last week due to stronger than expected US economic data. The market is waiting for the key non-farm employment report released this week to find more clues to the Fed's policy path.
Analysis of major currency trends
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index hovers around 97.97. The U.S. dollar usually weakens before the government shutdown, but it often rebounds once the problem is resolved. However, the situation is special, and market pricing faces greater risks: if the shutdown lasts for a longer period of time, it may lead to delays in the release of key economic data, including Friday's non-farm employment report - which is expected to show 59,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Technically, late last week, the US dollar failed to hold the critical retracement range of 98.238-98.714, and then the rise was weak and currently faced a key technical support level of 97.412 - a 50% retracement level of the recent 96.218-98.605 range. If it falls below 97.199, a short-term trend reversal will be confirmed, causing the index to enter a bearish pattern.
1. Trump met with leaders of the two houses of Congress to discuss avoiding the government shutdown
On September 29, local time, US President Trump met with leaders of the two houses of the White House at the White House to discuss avoiding the government shutdown. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said there was a huge disagreement between them and Trump had heard their objections. Schumer said whether the government is in a shutdown is decided by the Republican Party. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said it was a candid discussion that Democrats would not support the Republican bill that harms health care. House Speaker Johnson said he hoped to leave more time for negotiations. Vice President Vance said the talks with leaders of the two houses were "candid" and the federal government should not be shut down due to differences.
2. Williams: Signs of weak labor market make me support interest rate cuts. The estimated real neutral rate is 0.75%.
The Federal Reserve Williams said on Monday that preliminary signs of weakness in the labor market prompted him to support interest rate cuts at his latest Fed meeting. Williams watch"It makes sense to lower interest rates slightly", and "moderately relax some tightening measures" will help boost the job market and put some downward pressure on the still-high inflation levels. Additionally, he said his model estimates for real neutral rates at 0.75%, but added that neutral rates are important, but policies are data-driven.
3. Switzerland and the United States formally unified their positions on foreign exchange intervention may give a "green light" for another intervention in the future
According to the Financial Times, the Swiss National Bank and the U.S. Treasury issued a statement on Monday, formally unified their positions on foreign exchange issues, and both sides promise not to "manipulate exchange rates for www.xmtraders.competition purposes." The statement also acknowledged that market intervention is still an effective tool to deal with exchange rate fluctuations or “disorder” trends. Lee Hardman, foreign exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UF, said, "This shows that the United States recognizes the right to intervene. Therefore, this can be seen as a green light for another move (intervention) in the future." Before the statement was released, Switzerland had long had friction with the United States due to its monetary intervention policy.
4. US Bureau of Labor Statistics: No economic data is released during the government shutdown
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has just released a government shutdown emergency plan, and will suspend all operations during the government shutdown and will not release economic data. Currently, U.S. Congressmen are inclined to force the federal government to shut down, which may leave policymakers, business leaders and investors without access to the key data needed to assess the U.S. economy. Stephen Stanley, chief economist of the U.S. capital markets at Santander, said the next Fed meeting will be held from October 28 to 29, and it will be difficult to justify another rate cut without the latest government data. Some officials have been cautious about this and hope to see more data. Neil Bradley, chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of www.xmtraders.commerce, said the government shutdown will not push the U.S. economy into a recession, but it will pay the price and increase uncertainty that businesses and business leaders are already dealing with.
5. The decline in interest rates injects power. The sales of existing homes in the United States rose beyond expectations in August. Data shows that the sales of existing homes in the United States rose to the highest level in five months. The decline in mortgage interest rates has injected much needed momentum into the sluggish real estate market. Previously, new home sales also saw unexpected growth in August, and the rise in existing home sales exceeded expectations further suggests that the U.S. real estate market may be in the early stages of getting rid of a few years of downturn. Mortgage rates have now dropped to 6.34%, the lowest level in a year. This change has prompted many Americans to stop waiting and watching, and has also made some homeowners willing to list their homes for sale. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said in a statement: “The decline in mortgage rates has allowed more buyers to sign home purchase contracts. This trend is particularly evident in the Midwest, where the region’s existing homes are about to be www.xmtraders.completed sales surged by nearly 9% in August, the biggest gain since early 2023. Signing volumes in the South and West have also risen. "While the mortgage rate drop is welcomed, millions of Americans are still well below current levels, so they are not willing to move. This phenomenon has led to continued tight housing inventory and housing prices remain high.Institutional View
1. Capitol Macro: ECB may cut interest rates twice next year by 25 basis points
Capitol Macro analyst Andrew Kenningham wrote that weak economic growth could force the ECB to change its "comfort zone of policy stance." ECB President Lagarde once said that the bank's policy position is in a "good state" as interest rates remain at 2% in the past few months and inflation stabilizes near central bank targets. But Kenningham said that this view is acceptable as the euro zone grows next year, especially in Germany, the most important economy in Europe. It can change. Meanwhile, he believes inflation may be lower than the central bank's expected target. Therefore, Kenningham predicts that the ECB may cut interest rates twice next year, 25 basis points each time.
2. Deutsche Bank: The dollar may not rebound significantly
www.xmtraders.commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister pointed out in a report that given the threat of Fed independence and the weak economic outlook, the dollar may find it difficult to achieve a meaningful recovery. He believes that despite the White House's "unstable trade policy", the foreign exchange market does not seem to expect the dollar to perform in the second term of US President Trump in any significant difference from the first term. The dollar appreciates significantly after Trump's first term fell to the bottom. Pfister said: "This time, considering the attack on the Fed and the weakening of the real economy, this recovery may be more difficult. ”
3. Mitsubishi UF: If Koizumiro becomes the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party, the yen may benefit
Mitsubishi UF Bank analyst Lee Harderman pointed out in a report that if Koizumiro becomes the next president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the yen may benefit. He said: "We predict that the Bank of Japan will resume interest rate hikes as early as October's policy meeting, which is based on the view that Koizumiro won the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election. "He believes that the reduction of political uncertainty should give the Bank of Japan greater confidence to resume interest rate hikes.
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