Oil prices fell by more than 3%, OPEC+'s plan to increase production is suppressed, multiple positive factors help, gold prices approach 3835 levels

Basic news

On Tuesday (September 30, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,829.18/ounce, and gold prices broke through $3,800 per ounce for the first time on Monday, setting a record high of $3,834.03/ounce, as investors bet on the United States that will cut interest rates, worry about the possible government shutdown and geopolitical tensions intensify; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.14/barrel, oil prices closed down 3% on Monday, OPEC+ plans to increase oil production again in November, and Iraq's Kurdistan region resumes exporting oil through Turkey, enhancing global supply prospects.

U.S. stocks

The three major U.S. indexes closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq leading the gains as investors bought heavyweight tech stocks and disliked the risk of U.S. government shutdowns and hawkish remarks from Fed officials.

The technology sector brings the biggest boost to the S&P 500 as investors bet on growth brought by artificial intelligence and the Fed will continue to cut interest rates as it copes with ongoing inflation concerns and labor market uncertainty.

The main focus of Wall Street this week is the deadlock between Republicans and Democrats on appropriation issues, which increases the possibility of the government shutdown from the first day of the new U.S. fiscal year on Wednesday.

While the Labor Department has prepared for the government shutdown that could lead to a delay in September’s employment report, it doesn’t seem to be a major driver of the market, said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at 248Ventures in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Investors are holding on to the positive,” Bell said, noting that recent housing market and consumer spending data show the economy is resilient, while the marketThere is hope for a rate cut. "The market won't soar because the risks are still there. But investors can ignore the potential shutdown, because if it happens, it may be resolved soon, and the market can refocus on what is really important, such as corporate profits, monetary policy and AI investments." Burns McKinney, portfolio manager at NFJ InvestmentGroup, said that although the shutdown has little impact on corporate performance in history, the imminent risk may limit the gains. , and kept trading on Monday low, "The only reason why the shutdown can really drive the market is whether it will affect corporate profits. Historically, the government shutdown has been short and has no impact on profits, so investors tend to look to the future."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.15% to 46316.07 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 6661.21 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.48% to 22591.15 points.

Investors are also paying attention to www.xmtraders.comments from Fed officials to determine whether decision makers are concerned, and once the shutdown www.xmtraders.comes true, it will lead to a decline in economic predictability.

Cleveland Fed Chairman Beth Hammack said on Monday that the Fed needs to maintain a tight monetary policy to curb inflation. She has no voting rights in interest rate decisions this year.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he is open to further interest rate cuts, but the Fed must act cautiously and keep interest rates high enough to continue to fight inflation, which is still about one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target. He has the right to vote on interest rate decisions this year.

CME’s FedWatch tool shows that traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting is about 89%.

Nine of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose. The energy sector led the decline by more than 3% as oil prices fell, closing down 1.9%; the consumer discretionary sector led the gains, up 0.6%. Judging from the contribution of index points, the technology sector has brought the biggest boost, with AI chip leader Nvidia rising 2%, and Microsoft rising 0.6%.

Electronics shares rose 4.5%, after the game publisher agreed to privatize for $55 billion, boosting market hopes for the prospects of mergers and acquisitions. Bell said the deal "confirmated that the M&A market remains open."

Gold market

Gold prices broke through $3,800 per ounce for the first time on Monday, a record high as investors bet on the U.S. to cut interest rates, fears a possible government shutdown and increased geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold rose 1.9% to $3,829.63 per ounce, hitting a record high of $3,833.37 for one during the session. In December, U.S. gold futures closed up 1.2% to $3,855.2 per ounce.

David Meg, head of metal trading at HighRidgeFutures"Hazard-haven demand targeting the possible shutdown of the U.S. government" is one of the factors driving the rise in gold prices. "The dollar has been under some slight pressure as a result, which undoubtedly supports the precious metals market."

U.S. President Trump is scheduled to meet with top congressional leaders from both parties on Monday to negotiate the extension of government funding. If an agreement cannot be reached, the federal government will start shutting down on Wednesday.

At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense said its troops had taken control of the village of Shandryholove in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Gold has generally performed well in low interest rate environments and uncertain times, up more than 43% so far this year.

The U.S. Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) price index released last Friday meets market expectations, strengthening market confidence that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at its October and December meetings.

Meger said: "Last week's PCE data was seen as a factor that would not hinder the Fed's further rate cuts... This is still the key to supporting the price of gold and silver." In other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.9% to $46.85 per ounce, a record high of more than 14 years; platinum rose 1.5% to $1,592.65 per ounce, a record high of 12 years; palladium fell 1.1% to $1,255.61 per ounce.

Oil market

Oil prices closed down 3% on Monday, with OPEC+ planning to increase oil production again in November, and Iraq's Kurdistan region resumed exports of oil through Turkey, enhancing global supply prospects.

Brent crude oil futures fell 3.1%, with settlement price at $67.97 a barrel, closing last Friday at its highest since July 31. U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.45% to settle at $63.45.

Three sources said OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday and may confirm production increases by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November to www.xmtraders.compete for market share. OPEC+'s production has been nearly 500,000 barrels per day less than its target level.

RystadEnergy chief economist Claudio Galimberti said: As OPEC+ turns to focus on market share, fundamentals look weaker, and concerns about oversupply prevail.

The Iraqi Ministry of Petroleum said that the oil pipeline from Kurdish region to Turkey began to transport oil on Saturday, the first in two and a half years. Two industry insiders said that crude oil flow from Kurdistan to Türkiye's Jayhan Port is 150,000 to 160,000 barrels per day. This is expected to eventually lead to an increase in crude oil supply in the international market by as much as 230,000 barrels per day.

Last week, both indicators rose more than 4% after Ukrainian drone attacked Russia's energy infrastructure, causing the country's fuel exports to hit.

Foreign market

The dollar fell against major currencies such as the euro and the yen on Monday after strengthening last week as U.S. economic data was stronger than expected. The market was waiting for key non-farm employment announced this week.Report to find more clues about the Fed's policy path.

The recent data released by housing, durable wealth orders and second-quarter GDP correction values ​​are all higher than expected. In addition, the number of initial unemployment benefits in the United States has dropped significantly. These economic data prompted the market to lower expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut.

The dollar's decline is also affected by the risk of the government shutdown, and government funding will expire at midnight on Tuesday. U.S. President Trump will meet with congressional leaders at the White House on Monday to make a final effort to end the deadlock.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at BannockburnForex in New York, said, "Today is overall consolidation, with a slightly heavy tone. But the key is whether the government will shut down at midnight tomorrow. The next driving factor will be the employment data released on Friday, but if the government shuts down, we will not get the employment data. This means an increase in uncertainty."

The U.S. Department of Labor confirmed on Monday that once some government shutdown occurs, its statistical agencies will suspend the release of economic data, including the highly-watched September non-farm employment report.

At the end of New York, the dollar fell 0.6% against the yen to 148.61 yen, up more than 1% last week, the biggest single-week gain since early July. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2% to 97.9, up 0.5% last week. The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1731.

Traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 42 basis points for the rest of the year, and a cumulative rate cut of 105 basis points by the end of 2026, about 25 basis points less than expected in mid-September.

Investors are most concerned about the U.S. government will face a shutdown if Congress fails to pass the appropriations bill before the end of Tuesday's fiscal year. If it fails, some government departments will be closed on the first day of fiscal year 2026 on Wednesday.

Analysts say the dollar usually weakens before such events and rebounds after the grant dispute is settled. The market may see it as another drag on the already weak labor market.

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said, "History shows that the short-term government shutdown has a relatively moderate impact on the economy and foreign exchange markets."

Before Friday's job report is released, investors will also focus on data such as job openings, private employment and ISM manufacturing PMI.

In other currencies, the US dollar fell 0.1% to CHF 0.7973; the pound rose 0.3% to 1.3436 US dollars.

Analysts expect inflation data in euro zone countries to have limited impact on interest rate outlooks, as investors expect policies to remain unchanged. Spain's EU reconciliation Consumer Price Index (HICP) rose 3.0% year-on-year in September, up from 2.7% in August. Furthermore, the market's attention remains focused on the possibility of war in Ukraine and increased military spending.

In Japan, with hawkish changes in the position of the BOJ CouncilThe signs that the interest rate outlook divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will continue to be the focus.

The Australian dollar rose 0.5% against the dollar to $0.6580 in late trading. The RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. The market expects the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged.

International News

Trump: 100% tariffs will be imposed on all films produced outside the United States

U.S. President Trump said on social media that our film production industry has been stolen from the United States by other countries, just like stealing candy from babies. The California governor is weak and incompetent, and the blow has been hit particularly hard! So to solve this long-standing and never-ending problem, I will impose a 100% tariff on all films made outside the United States.

Trump met with leaders of the two houses of Congress to discuss avoiding the government shutdown

On September 29, local time, US President Trump met with leaders of the two houses at the White House to discuss avoiding the government shutdown. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said there was a huge disagreement between them and Trump had heard their objections. Schumer said whether the government is in a shutdown is decided by the Republican Party. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said it was a candid discussion that Democrats would not support the Republican bill that harms health care. House Speaker Johnson said he hoped to leave more time for negotiations. Vice President Vance said the talks with leaders of the two houses were "candid" and the federal government should not be shut down due to differences.

The Trump administration is seeking to cut off Harvard's federal funding through new ways

On September 29, local time, the U.S. government is seeking to pass a "delisting procedure" to prevent Harvard from obtaining federal funding in the future. The Civil Rights Office of the Ministry of Health and Human Services wrote a letter to the President of Harvard on the same day, confirming that the relevant procedures had been initiated. Earlier this month, a Boston federal judge ruled that the government must restore $2.2 billion in research funding that was frozen at the beginning of the year. But as the Trump administration and Harvard negotiate on campus anti-Semitic issues reached a deadlock, the White House is pushing for the passage of a "delisting" mechanism that makes Harvard deemed ineligible to conduct business with the government. This move may have a significant impact on Harvard's scientific research and funding sources.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 89.3%

According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in October is 10.7%, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 89.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in December is 2.3%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 27.7%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 69.9%.

The US Gaza peace plan has been submitted to the Hamas negotiating delegation

On September 29, local time, the Israeli negotiating team has accepted the US proposed Gaza peace plan and is waiting for Hamas to respond. In addition, Netanyahu will consider sending a delegation to participate in the talks after returning to ChinaVerdict. In addition, Qatar and Egypt have submitted the Gaza peace plan to the Hamas negotiating delegation, which promises to review the plan “responsibly” and respond.

The Iranian president says that making Iran surrender is purely a dream

On September 29, Iranian President Pezekichiyan said in a speech at the National Firefighters Day ceremony held in Tehran that Western countries "imagine that they can surrender Iran and the Iranian people, and this fantasy only exists in their dreams." He also accused the United Nations of failing to impose sanctions on Israel that continues to undermine regional stability due to the U.S. veto power in the Security Council. However, Iran, which wants to survive, faces day after day sanctions because it refuses to bow its head.

Russian Budget Draft: Oil and gas revenue will continue to grow in the next three years, reaching US$107.4 billion in 26 years

According to the description of Russia's 2026-2028 federal budget draft, the Russian budget's oil and gas revenue will reach 8.92 trillion rubles (107.4 billion US dollars) in 2026, 9.1 trillion rubles (109.6 billion US dollars) in 2027, and 9.7 trillion rubles (116.8 billion US dollars) in 2028. Non-oil and gas revenue will reach 31.4 trillion rubles (US$378 billion) in 2026, 33.9 trillion rubles (US$408.1 billion) in 2027, and 36.2 trillion rubles (US$435.8 billion) in 2028. The document shows that the dynamic changes in oil and gas income are driven by changes in energy resource prices and U.S. dollar exchange rates and the production and refining structures set in Russia's economic and social outlook forecast.

Domestic News

The world's first typhoon professional AI intelligent body is launched

The typhoon professional knowledge intelligent body, "Smart Taiwan Intelligence" jointly created by the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Research Center and the Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute of the China Meteorological Administration, in conjunction with the Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai Ocean University and Shanghai Unicom, has officially launched external testing services today. This agent integrates scientific and technological achievements such as "Tropical Cyclone Research and Review", "Typhoon Yearbook", "Typhoon Bulletin" and hurricane reports www.xmtraders.compiled by foreign meteorological departments, and integrates national scientific research outputs. From the typhoon generation mechanism to path prediction and then to professional interpretation, it can be www.xmtraders.completed in one click. The intelligent body can realize real-time typhoon chasing, directly connect to authoritative monitoring data, update the typhoon path, intensity, and range of wind and rain impacts in minutes, and generate visual graphic reports, so that the typhoon dynamics are clear at a glance.

State Administration of Foreign Exchange: At the end of June, my country's banking industry had a net foreign asset of US$234.4 billion

At the end of June 2025, my country's banking industry had a foreign financial asset of US$177.21 billion, foreign liabilities of US$153.77 billion, and foreign net assets of US$234.4 billion, of which, RMB net liabilities of US$317.1 billion and foreign net assets of US$551.5 billion.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Oil prices fell by more than 3%, OPEC+'s plan to increase production is suppressed, multiple positive factors help, gold prices approaching the 3835 level", it isIt was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

Spring, summer, autumn and winter, every season is a beautiful scenery, and it stays in my heart forever. Leave~~~