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The US dollar failed to break through 100, and the momentum slowed down and selling pressure appeared.
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar failed to break through 100, and the momentum slowed down and selling pressure appeared." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Asian Market Trends
On Monday, the market was waiting for the latest deadline set by Trump and was cautious about Japan's intervention in the exchange rate. The U.S. dollar index fell below the 100 mark. As of now, the U.S. dollar index is quoted at 100.03.

The situation in Iran:
①Trump: Tuesday is the deadline for reaching an agreement (8 a.m. Wednesday, Beijing time); Iran’s proposal is not good enough; a set of plans has been formulated to destroy Iranian bridges and power plants within 4 hours; rather than letting Iran collect strait tolls, it is better to let the United States collect them.
② US media: The US-Iran mediators are making final efforts to secure a 45-day ceasefire.
③Iran conveyed its response to the US proposal, rejecting a temporary ceasefire and emphasizing a permanent end to the war. The response contained ten demands made by Iran.
④The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz rose to the highest level since early March.
⑤In a phone call with Trump last Sunday, Netanyahu urged Trump not to seek a ceasefire for the time being.
⑥The Israeli military said it carried out an air strike on Iran’s largest petrochemical facility.
⑦The head of the intelligence agency of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards died. ·⑧Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The US operation to rescue the pilot may be to steal enriched uranium.
⑨ Minister of Defense: The military has been instructed to continue to attack Iran’s national infrastructure with all its strength.
⑩Iranian officials: Will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a "temporary ceasefire".
Two Federal Reserve officials warned that the inflation situation is serious, suggesting that they will tighten rather than loosen monetary policy.
Wells Fargo and Citigroup postponed expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. ·The U.S. service industry price index soared in March, hitting a new high since October 2022.
Summary of institutional views
Morgan Stanley looks forward to U.S. CPI in March: core CPI is expected to continue to slow down, with www.xmtraders.commodity price increases close to zero
The core CPI in March may record a monthly rate of 0.19%, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, slightly lower than the data in the February report. Core www.xmtraders.commodity prices are expected to be in positive territory, but likely close to zero. We believe that the tariff pass-through effect will continue in March, but we also expect car price increases to remain at a low level, and clothing prices to fall back after strong increases in February. Core service price growth has slowed due to seasonal replenishment, rising rents and positive air ticket price growth. Affected by rising oil prices pushing up gasoline prices, the overall CPI may record a monthly rate of 0.84%, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%. The non-seasonally adjusted index is 330.337, which will become the highest reading since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022 that disrupted the oil market.
Nomura Securities previews U.S. CPI in March: Core www.xmtraders.commodity cost transmission has reached its end, and core inflation should...
The U.S. March CPI report will be released this Friday. The core monthly rate is expected to rise slightly from 0.216% in February to 0.286%, mainly driven by rising core www.xmtraders.commodity prices. We expect volatile used car prices to stop falling in March and new car prices to continue rising at a moderate pace. In addition, stronger consumer demand was supported by larger-than-usual tax rebates, which appeared to be pushing up prices on goods more broadly, including clothing. We believe that rising production costs for manufacturers due to supply shortages of semiconductors and certain metals may have begun to be passed on to the prices of finished consumer goods such as audio equipment, www.xmtraders.computers and home appliances. On the services side, we expect landlord-equivalent rent inflation to rebound slightly, airfares to continue rising solidly, and healthcare inflation to likely moderate after unexpectedly strengthening in February.
Among the non-core CPI www.xmtraders.components, the energy price impact caused by the US-Israeli war is expected to drive the energy price www.xmtraders.component to a monthly increase of 10.9% in March, with gasoline prices leading the increase. Taken together, it may lead to the overall CPI monthly rate recording 0.971% in March. Based on our forecasts for CPI and PPI data, we expect the core PCE monthly rate to be 0.263% in March.
Citigroup previews U.S. CPI in March: Strong non-farm payrolls www.xmtraders.combined with high inflation will strengthen the hawkish tone of Federal Reserve officials
It is expected that affected by the surge in gasoline prices, the overall U.S. CPI in March will record a monthly increase of 0.9%, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%. The core CPI rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, should remain near 0.2% on a monthly basis, as slowing housing inflation and weakness in the service sector offset a temporary boost from used cars. But due to integration and core CPIThe monthly and annual rates are still above the 2% target level. Coupled with the high labor market performance in March, Fed officials may continue to make hawkish remarks.
In addition, it is expected that the monthly core PCE rate in February should be much higher than the core CPI again, or record 0.37%, continuing the recent trend of differentiation. Price pressure is expected to www.xmtraders.come mainly from core goods (especially www.xmtraders.computer software and accessories), while housing prices cool and service prices remain sticky, although falling financial services prices may soon help offset recent upward pressure on goods and air ticket prices.
HSBC: In the shadow of "American exceptionalism", investors' interest in euro zone assets is increasing
Over the past three years, cross-border capital inflows into European stocks and bonds have strengthened significantly. Part of the reason is that sentiment toward U.S. assets has cooled due to tariffs and policy uncertainty. But there are also signs that investor interest in Europe is growing due to narrowing global growth differentials and a more positive fiscal policy backdrop.
In terms of the stock market, the appeal of passive capital flows and technological leadership has tilted toward the United States in recent years. But data suggests the situation is stabilizing, with passive flows into Europe rising, reinforcing the view that markets no longer view this as just a cyclical trading opportunity. Meanwhile, in fixed income, there is evidence that investors are moving away from the traditional safe haven of German Bunds and towards high-yield investment-grade credit as a defensive allocation with a more balanced risk-to-return ratio.
Overall, while Europe has not been immune to recent volatility, there are signs that Europe is undergoing a long-term shift from a "recovery narrative" to a "more stable source of income."
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