Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz reshapes global logistics, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 6

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose or fell mixedly, with the Dow futures falling 0.10%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.11%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.38%. Germany's DAX index fell by 0.56%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose by 0.69%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.24%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.70%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz reshaped global logistics and the global logistics chain ushered in a major reorganization

The obstruction of passage in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the situation in the Middle East also had a serious impact on global logistics. This situation has lasted for more than a month, and the logistics industry has gradually shifted from the initial "stopping operations" to "diversion" and "re-pricing". As routes and transportation methods continue to be adjusted, the impact is also driving the redistribution of risks and returns in the global logistics chain. As the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues to ferment and crude oil shipments from the Middle East are blocked, Asian and European buyers are turning more to the United States, West Africa and other places to find alternative sources of supply. Relevant sources said: "For shipping, oil equivalent to 30% of the original normal volume cannot be transported because importing countries are rushing to find oil elsewhere, but ships have not had time to redeploy." In contrast, the situation of aviation logistics in this crisis is more www.xmtraders.complicated. On the one hand, after sea transportation was blocked, some high-time-sensitive and high-value goods were diverted to air transportation, which directly pushed up freight prices. On the other hand, although air transportation prices increased, air logistics www.xmtraders.companies also faced multiple pressures such as soaring fuel costs. at the moment, the regional conflict has not yet shown signs of ending, and the reorganization of the logistics chain is still continuing.

The Spanish Ministry of Finance spent 675 billion euros on bond issuance on Thursday, and inflation-linked bonds and short, medium and long-term bonds were put into battle

⑴ The Spanish Ministry of Finance announced that it will issue up to 75 million euros of inflation-linked bonds and bonds due in 2036 on Thursday, as well as issue up to 6 billion euros of 2029, 2031 and 2036 bonds. ⑵ In addition, the Spanish Ministry of Finance also plans to issue up to 6 billion euros of short-term government bonds on Tuesday. The overall bond issuance scale this week can reach up to 6.75 billion euros, covering multiple maturities from short-term to long-term and inflation-linked varieties.

Spokesperson of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The US action to rescue the pilot may be to steal enriched uranium

On April 6, local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagaei responded to questions at a press conference held that day. He stated that the US action to rescue the pilot on the 5th local time constituted a violation of Iranian airspace and contained many doubts. The area where the US pilot is said to be located is in Kojiluyeh-Boye Ahmed Province, while the area where the US is conducting rescue operations is in central Iran. The two are far apart. Bagaei emphasized that the US operation may be a "cover operation" to steal enriched uranium. This possibility should not be ignored. This operation is a "catastrophic scandal" for the United States.

The ultimatum was filled with foul language, and Trump angrily called Iran a "lunatic", but ceasefire negotiations are undercurrent

⑴ Trump posted on social media on Sunday suggesting that he would bomb Iran's power plants and bridges on April 7, and even cursed and demanded to "open the damn strait", otherwise "you lunatics will be in hell." At the same time, he also said in an interview that the United States is in "in-depth negotiations" with Iran and is expected to reach an agreement before the deadline. ⑵ Trump’s post on social platforms only mentioned “Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern Time”. Many mainstream media interpreted it as extending the deadline for Iran by 24 hours. According to the AXIOS website, the United States, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement. ⑶ When asked whether he would rule out the possibility of sending ground troops to Iran, Trump answered "no". At the same time, he called NATO a "paper tiger" and believed that Putin has no fear of them. There is currently no need to deploy US troops on the ground but he did not rule out any possibility. ⑷The White House is busy refuting rumors and denying rumors that Trump is seriously ill and hospitalized. Trump himself also criticized the U.S. Supreme Court on social media for successive "bad decisions" on tariffs and birthright citizenship.

The Qatari LNG ship made an emergency U-turn after approaching the Strait of Hormuz, and the world's second largest exporter's shipping capacity has been damaged by 17%

⑴ Ship tracking data shows that two ships, AlDaayen and Rasheeda, carrying Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG, turned back after sailing eastward towards the Strait of Hormuz. If they successfully cross, it will be the first time that Israel and the United States have launched an attack on Iran since February 28.For the first time since the war, LNG cargo passed through the waterway. ⑵Kpler data shows that both tankers are controlled by Qatar Energy, and the AlDaayen tanker was sending a signal to China at the time. Qatar Energy did not immediately respond to a request for www.xmtraders.comment. ⑶ Previously, a Japanese LNG tanker named Sohar LNG successfully crossed the strait, but its joint venture owner Mitsui Lines said on Friday that the tanker was empty at the time and refused to disclose the passage time and whether negotiations were involved. ⑷ The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has lasted for more than five weeks. Tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked by fighting and retaliatory attacks. This waterway carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG flows. Qatar, the world's second largest LNG exporter, has lost 17% of its export capacity due to Iranian attacks. Repairs are expected to take three to five years, affecting 12.8 million tons of fuel every year.

Saudi Arabia’s premium for Asian crude oil soared to a record high of US$19.50, and the war in the Middle East www.xmtraders.completely disrupted energy pricing

⑴ Saudi state-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco will increase the selling price of its flagship product Arabian Light crude oil to Asian refiners next month to a premium of US$19.50 over the regional benchmark, setting a record. ⑵ This move www.xmtraders.comes at a time when the expanding conflict in the Middle East and Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz are severely impacting the energy market. Saudi Arabia has chosen to significantly increase its official selling price to Asia at this time. ⑶ However, traders pointed out that this premium level is about half of the Bloomberg survey expectations. It is especially difficult to judge this month because the Middle East index has fluctuated violently since the war and prices fell sharply near the end of the month, making the pricing environment extremely www.xmtraders.complex.

Iran rebuts Trump’s power plant threat: The diversified power grid is not afraid of a nationwide blackout, where does the energy confidence www.xmtraders.come from

⑴ According to a report by Iran’s national broadcaster IRIB, an Iranian energy industry official made it clear that even if the United States attacks the country’s power facilities, Iran is confident that it will continue to provide at least part of the power supply to the people. ⑵ The official added that Iran's energy sources are highly diversified, and the power grid is widely distributed and interconnected, which means that the country is unlikely to experience widespread nationwide power outages. ⑶ This statement directly responded to Trump’s previous threat to destroy all Iran’s power plants if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran tried to weaken market concerns about the www.xmtraders.complete paralysis of energy infrastructure through technical explanations. ⑷ From the perspective of power grid structure, Iran has continued to invest in distributed power generation and regional interconnection projects in recent years to reduce the risk of systemic collapse after key nodes are hit. This official statement is intended to send a signal of strategic resilience.

EU officials urge member states to avoid excessive support measures to prevent the energy crisis from turning into a fiscal crisis

⑴ As energy prices soar due to the Iran war, EU officials urge member governments not to take excessive support measures to prevent the energy crisis from turning into a fiscal crisis. ⑵The latest data shows that the EU’s general government debt as a proportion of GDP has increased from 77.8% at the end of 2019 to 77.8% in the third quarter of last year.82.1%

Retired U.S. military officers said that the ground operation against Iran will definitely fail miserably

Recently, retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and special forces officer Anthony Aguiler said in an interview that launching a war against Iran was "a strategic failure from the beginning" for the United States. Aguil also said that he believed that the ground operation of the US military against Iran should have begun, but due to factors such as the damage of a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, the ground operation was forced to be postponed. He also said that the U.S. ground operations against Iran may begin soon, but the ground operations will end in failure and will bring catastrophic losses to the U.S. military in Iran.

The Bank of Japan’s optimistic assessment hides hidden worries. The conflict in the Middle East has torn the balance of interest rate hikes, and the confidence of www.xmtraders.companies to increase wages is tested

⑴ The Bank of Japan maintained its optimistic assessment of the economy in all nine regions in its quarterly report released on Monday, noting that consumption remained strong thanks to inbound tourism and rising wages, but it also warned that soaring oil prices and supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East may have an impact on the economy. ⑵Companies in many regions have felt the pressure of rising input costs and disruptions in raw material supply caused by the Iran war. Some www.xmtraders.companies are worried that rising prices, mainly driven by energy, may damage corporate profits and consumption, and are worried that supply disruptions may further expand. ⑶ Regarding salary prospects, the report stated that many regional www.xmtraders.companies plan to increase wages this year by roughly the same amount as last year. However, some www.xmtraders.companies said that salary increase plans may be affected by the prospect of conflicts in the Middle East, and uncertainty about the implementation of wage increases is rising. ⑷ Although rising inflationary pressure and hawkish www.xmtraders.communications from the central bank have prompted the market to bet on a 70% probability of raising interest rates in April, conflicts have further www.xmtraders.complicated interest rate hike plans. The report is based on surveys as of late March and has reflected the impact of the US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28. ⑸ The surge in oil prices and the rise in import costs caused by the weakening of the yen have brought greater inflationary pressure to this economy that is highly dependent on imports. However, rising fuel costs will also harm corporate profits and may undermine the cycle of rising wages and prices that the central bank regards as a prerequisite for further interest rate increases.

The war in the Middle East has ignited more than just oil prices

Currently, the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is gradually spreading from the energy field to the chemical industry and high-end manufacturing industry chains. In Seoul, South Korea, in recent weeks, "Did you buy a garbage bag?" has become a somewhat helpless greeting among neighbors in many www.xmtraders.communities. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, garbage bags, which are indispensable in Korean people's lives, have become "in short supply" in some supermarkets, and have even been out of stock. The reason behind the increase in domestic plastic bag prices in South Korea is the sharp decline in naphtha imports, which has led to a sharp increase in the price of ethylene used in the production of plastic bags. Under the cost pressure brought about by this raw material "cut-off" crisis, many chemical www.xmtraders.companies around the world successively announced price increase plans in March. U.S. chemical giant Dow Chemical has increased polyethylene price increases to twice the previously announced level. Germany's Wacker Chemical has raised prices for its silicone products across the board, involving about 2,800 products. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has also brought into focus helium, a colorless and odorless inert gas. Qatar suppliesNearly one-third of global helium demand. Due to attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities, helium production lines were damaged and repairs will take several years. Helium spot prices have recently surged by more than 50%.

Russian crude oil exports soared by nearly 9%, Trump’s tariff remarks triggered market concerns, and the global supply chain faced another change

⑴Russia’s Black Sea Port of Tuapse exports of petroleum products in April is planned to rise to 794,000 tons, an increase of 8.7% from the 755,000 tons planned in March, and the average daily export volume has increased significantly. ⑵ Among specific categories, the planned export growth of fuel oil is the most prominent, jumping from 210,000 tons in March to 266,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30.9%; the planned export of diesel 10ppm is 368,000 tons, a slight increase of 4.2% from the previous value. ⑶ Blended diesel and vacuum gas oil are planned to export 40,000 tons and 30,000 tons respectively, up 3.3% and 3.3% month-on-month respectively; naphtha has become the only category to decline, with 90,000 tons planned to be exported in April, a 15.5% decrease from 110,000 tons in March. ⑷At the same time, Trump's tariff remarks continue to trigger global trade tensions, and the energy market has intensified concerns about the stability of the supply chain. Russia has chosen this time to significantly increase its oil product shipments, perhaps aiming to seize the market window. ⑸Traders pointed out that the nearly 30% surge in fuel oil exports reflects Russia's bet on demand in Asia and emerging markets, while the moderate growth in diesel exports indicates that there are still logistical obstacles in the European direction, and the actual loading situation needs to be paid attention to in the future.

The Bank of Japan releases subtle signals to avoid fueling expectations of an interest rate hike this month

The above content is the entire content of "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz reshapes global logistics, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 6". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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