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This "ticking time bomb" may detonate in April! JP Morgan releases 'Global Impact Map'
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: This "time bomb" may detonate in April! JPMorgan Chase releases the "Global Impact Map"". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
As the impact of the obstruction of crude oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to ferment, JPMorgan Chase warned that the global oil market is facing a supply shock that gradually spreads from east to west, and its transmission rhythm will mainly depend on shipping time, not just the scale of supply loss itself.
JP Morgan analysts pointed out in a report released on Thursday (March 26) that the obstruction of crude oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz in the past four weeks is triggering a "sequential" global supply shock. This impact will not erupt simultaneously on a global scale, but will appear sequentially from near to far and from east to west as the tanker's voyage progresses. Many regions around the world will feel the pressure one after another in April. #IrancrisisTracking#
The report pointed out that the global oil system is shifting from a "flow shock" to an "inventory consumption problem." Reports show that the last oil tanker to leave the Strait of Hormuz was on February 28, the day the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. Shipping in the key waterway has been mostly at a standstill since then, with overall supplies still significantly constrained despite Iran adopting a "calibrated strategy" of allowing limited passage for some ships.
JPMorgan Chase emphasized that the key to this round of impact is not only how much oil is lost, but also how long it takes for the oil to arrive in various markets. Because of this, the voyage itself becomes the "clock" that determines when the impact will hit the ground. In this scenario, global markets would see a sequential supply disruption, with varying inventory levels across regions leading to significant differences in buffer capabilities.
Asia will be one of the first regions to www.xmtraders.come under pressure. Analysts pointed out that Asia is extremely dependent on Persian Gulf crude oil and refined oil products.The goods shipped before the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz have now been basically exhausted, and the Asian market has begun to clearly feel the pressure of tightening supply. Goods from the Persian Gulf usually take about 10 to 20 days to reach Asia, with India arriving first, followed by Northeast Asia.
JPMorgan Chase predicts that after April, crude oil demand in Southeast Asia may decrease by about 300,000 barrels per day; if the release of strategic reserves of various countries is still mainly limited to their own countries, supply losses may quickly expand to more than 2 million barrels per day by May, and may approach 3 million barrels per day by June.
As oil prices climb, demand itself is often suppressed. Data show that the front-month contract of global benchmark Brent crude oil has risen 49% this month, closing at $108.01 a barrel on Thursday.受伊朗冲突持续扰乱全球供应影响,亚洲多国已开始加紧采取节能和限耗措施。
The Philippine government even declared a national energy emergency this week, saying that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East posed an "imminent danger" to the country's energy supply.
After Asia, the next wave of shocks is expected to be transmitted to Africa. JPMorgan Chase believes that the relevant impact will become more obvious in early April. If inland inventories are low, Africa may face a demand loss of up to 250,000 barrels per day in April.
Europe will begin to feel the pressure in mid-April. However, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the impact faced by Europe is more reflected in rising costs and intensified www.xmtraders.competition with Asia for resources, rather than necessarily direct severe physical shortages.
In contrast, the direct impact on the United States is expected to be relatively limited in the short term. Analysts said that because U.S. crude oil imports have longer voyages, the impact of most supply disruptions may not be more apparent until around April 15. In addition, the United States itself has strong domestic crude oil production capacity, so physical shortages are unlikely in the short term.
However, this does not mean that the United States can survive alone. JPMorgan Chase believes that the main impact on the United States will be reflected in higher oil prices and "mismatches" and disturbances in the refined oil market, rather than a www.xmtraders.complete break in actual supply. Currently, U.S. benchmark WTI crude oil is still about $10 lower than Brent crude oil, but it has risen 41% since March.
At the same time, as the U.S. stock market fell on Thursday, President Trump announced after the bell that he would extend the original five-day ceasefire targeting Iran's energy infrastructure to April 6.
Despite this, the market clearly has not www.xmtraders.completely relaxed its vigilance. Macquarie strategists noted in a note to clients late Thursday that markets are still betting that Trump will soon declare "victory." They believe that this can be reflected in the fall in the price of Brent crude oil far-month contracts, that is, the market expects that oil prices will gradually fall from the current level of close to US$110/barrel to closer to US$80/barrel in the next few months.
This judgment is generally in line with Macquarie’s prediction of Brent’s original plan at the end of this year.The latest forecast for oil is $89/barrel. However, the agency also warned that if the conflict evolves into a long-term situation that lasts until June, the probability of it happening is about 40%. Under this scenario, international oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel, while U.S. gasoline prices could also rise to about $7 per gallon.
On the whole, JPMorgan Chase’s latest judgment highlights that the current risk in the oil market is no longer just a question of “whether supply is reduced”, but a question of “at what pace, in which areas, and over how long will the impact gradually erupt?” As the logistics chain in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, an energy shock that spreads around the world based on shipping time is becoming more and more realistic.
The above content is about "[XM official website]: This "time bomb" may detonate in April! JPMorgan Chase releases the "Global Impact Map"". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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