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Dollar index retreats from Iran war highs, oil prices steady after Trump comments
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The U.S. dollar index fell from the highs of the Iran war, and oil prices stabilized after Trump's www.xmtraders.comments." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The U.S. dollar index fluctuated slightly in Asian trading on Wednesday, and the U.S. dollar rose slightly against major currencies on Tuesday. Against the backdrop of continued uncertainty over conflicts in the Middle East, investors' appetite for risky assets remained sluggish. The U.S. dollar had strengthened sharply after oil prices soared due to the war, but U.S. President Trump suggested that the conflict could end earlier than expected, easing market concerns and pushing oil prices to plummet, which in turn eased buying pressure on the U.S. dollar. Analysts pointed out that this reflects the direct response of the foreign exchange market to the fall in energy prices. If energy prices continue to fall, it will ease inflationary pressure in major economies.
Analysis of major currency trends
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index is hovering around 98.85. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell to 98.50 on Tuesday, retreating from last week’s high as safe-haven demand weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that the war with Iran was nearing an end. There will be a lot of high-impact US data released in the www.xmtraders.coming week, which will affect the next move of the US dollar. The big picture driver remains the Iran conflict. If geopolitical risks escalate again or oil prices rebound, safe-haven demand for the dollar could quickly return. But if the conflict subsides, as Trump suggests, DXY may face further downside risks as war premiums fade and rate cut expectations recalibrate. Wednesday's CPI will be the next catalyst.



1. The White House stated that the military operation against Iran will continue until the military objectives are fully achieved
On the 10th local time, White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt said at a press conference that the US military is advancing the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran "far beyond expected progress". Military operations will continue until U.S. President Trump determines that the established military objectives have been fully achieved. Levitt said that Trump's "unconditional surrender" of Iran means that Iran no longer has the ability to pose a credible threat to the United States and its allies, especially that its ballistic missile system and ability to develop nuclear weapons have been www.xmtraders.completely weakened. In response to some U.S. lawmakers expressing concerns about the deployment of U.S.Levitt said President Trump would not rule out any options, but did not confirm relevant deployment plans and criticized some Democratic lawmakers for politicizing the issue. In addition, Levitt also said that the U.S. government has recently temporarily allowed India to receive some Russian oil to cope with the short-term gap in global oil supply caused by the situation in Iran.
2. The tripartite talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine may be held in Turkey next week
In an interview with the American Consumer News and Business Channel on the 10th, U.S. presidential envoy Witkov said that the tripartite talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine will be postponed to next week. Ukrainian President Zelensky said the meeting could take place in Türkiye. Witkov did not specify the date or location of the meeting. He said the three-way talks were supposed to be held this week and said the United States "will remain positive about it." The Ukrainian News Agency quoted Zelensky as reporting on the 10th that the United States proposed to hold a new round of three-party talks next week, but whether the talks will be held still depends on the development of the situation in the Middle East. The meeting could take place in Türkiye or Switzerland.
3. Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Atlanta Fed: A nationwide search for Bostic’s successor will be conducted
Gregory Hale, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Atlanta Fed, said that the search for candidates to succeed former Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic will be nationwide and will not be limited to the southeastern region where the bank is located, as long as the candidate is willing and able to cooperate with the people and businesses in the region. It is reported that relevant application materials are still being collected, and interviews are expected to begin in about 30 days. Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in early December that he would propose that future local Fed chairmen must live in their jurisdictions for three years, otherwise "we will veto their appointment." Hale said there have been no restrictions on hiring at the Atlanta Fed. However, although the Fed president is appointed by the regional Fed's board of directors, his appointment must be approved by the members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
4. U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose in February as affordability improved to drive demand
Data from the National Association of Realtors showed on Tuesday that U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose in February, while the previous month's data was revised upward, thanks to lower mortgage rates and a modest increase in asking prices. Contract volume increased by 1.7%, equivalent to an annual rate of 4.09 million units, exceeding market expectations. One bright spot in the housing market has been improving affordability, with mortgage rates falling recently and home price gains modest. The National Association of Realtors' monthly housing affordability indicator, which reflects changes in home prices, median income and borrowing costs, is now at its most favorable level since 2022. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the association, said: "Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding. But there is still a long way to go to return to the level of transaction activity before the epidemic." The report showed that the median price of existing home sales rose 0.3% year-on-year to $398,000 last month, which was one of the smallest increases since the real estate boom during the epidemic. becomeHousing inventory increased 4.9% year-on-year to 1.29 million units, the highest level in February since 2020.
5. Market sentiment has improved and the market has priced in a 48% probability that the Bank of England will cut interest rates within the year. LSEG data shows that the money market currently has priced in a 48% probability that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in 2026. The latest change www.xmtraders.comes after Trump said the war in the Middle East could end soon, bringing some relief to investors. Markets on Monday priced in the possibility of the Bank of England raising interest rates this year amid concerns that British inflation could rise again. Kathleen Brooks of XTB said in the report: "It is extremely rare for interest rate cut expectations to be included and eliminated repeatedly in just a few hours, but this is what happens when oil prices experience a damaging surge."Institutional View1. Morgan Stanley: If energy disturbances ease, the Bank of England may cut interest rates in April
1. Morgan Stanley: If energy disturbances ease, the Bank of England may cut interest rates in April
Morgan Stanley’s Bruna Skarica said in a report that if the disturbances in global energy supply are resolved in the near future, the Bank of England may cut interest rates in April. War in the Middle East and rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns and led markets to lower expectations for a March interest rate cut by the Bank of England. Money markets are currently pricing in a 15% chance of a March rate cut by the Bank of England, www.xmtraders.compared with a 36% chance of an April rate cut, LSEG data shows. Morgan Stanley had previously predicted that the Bank of England would cut interest rates in March, July and November, but now it has adjusted interest rates to April, November and February of the following year, provided that energy supply disruptions do not continue for a long time.
2. TD Securities: The US dollar behaves as a conditional safe-haven asset
TD Securities strategists said in the report that the US dollar currently behaves as a "conditional safe-haven asset." They pointed out: "The U.S. dollar is no longer a natural safe haven, but the nature of the current shock makes it a safe haven again." Because the United States is still a relatively closed economy, has energy autonomy and is geographically isolated, the Iran war has driven safe-haven funds to flock to the U.S. dollar. However, investors had been heavily bearish on the dollar before the conflict broke out, and a correction in those positions also supported the greenback. Had the U.S. dollar remained the unrivaled safe-haven asset, its gains would have been even more significant.
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