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Iran faces ground troops, Kurdish forces waiting for opportunity
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If the sea loses the rolling of huge waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the wild dance of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its true course, it will lose its meaning.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xmtraders.commentary]: Iran faces ground forces, Kurdish armed forces are waiting for opportunities." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
This ethnic minority group, which accounts for 8% to 17% of Iran's total population, is standing at the crossroads of national demands and geopolitical www.xmtraders.competition. The trends of its armed organizations may rewrite the direction of the war in the Middle East.
Historical Grudges: The Kurds’ National Dilemma and Struggle
As the fourth largest ethnic group in the Middle East, the Kurds have a total global population of between 25 million and 45 million, and their core settlement areas span the mountainous areas on the borders of Iran, Turkey, Iraq, and Syria.
Since the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire after World War I and the division of the Middle East territory by the Western Allies, the Kurds have never been able to establish an independent and sovereign state. The ethnic groups scattered in the four countries have long suffered varying degrees of suppression.
In Iran, the Kurds mostly believe in Sunni Islam, and there are profound religious and ethnic gaps with the Shia-dominated central government.
Language teaching has been restricted, cultural identity has been suppressed, and the struggle for autonomy or independent status has never stopped for decades. Although the Mahabad Republic established in 1946 lasted only 11 months, it became the spiritual symbol of the Kurdish national independence movement.
Since then, KDPI, PAK, PJAK and other armed organizations have continued to engage in low-intensity guerrilla warfare against the Iranian regime based in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq. Some members have also participated in the war against the "Islamic State" and accumulated practical experience.
External promoters: the "agent" layout and armed support of the United States and Israel
Now, this national conflict that has lasted for decades is being reactivated by geopolitical forces.
The United States and Israel regard the Iranian Kurdish armed forces as "agents" to stir up regional tensions, and have long provided funds, weapons and intelligence support.hold.
In early March 2026, U.S. President Trump had a phone call with Kurdish leaders and promised to provide "extensive air cover";
Israel continued to conduct air strikes on military bases and border posts in Iran's Kurdish provinces to clear the way for a potential uprising.
According to informed sources, the CIA launched an armed plan against the Iranian Kurdish forces a few months ago. Thousands of armed personnel are gathering at the Iran-Iraq border, preparing for an opportunity to launch a ground attack.
However, this action faces double constraints: on the one hand, the Kurdish armed forces have made it clear that unless they obtain reliable airspace support and a no-fly zone, rashly participating in the war is tantamount to a "mutual perish mission";
On the other hand, the authorities of the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region have publicly denied participating in operations against Iraq and declared "neutral", which has brought uncertainty to the supply and transit channels of armed personnel.
Lessons from the past: The Kurds are wary of external support
The intervention of external forces has made the situation more www.xmtraders.complicated. Historically, the Kurds have been "abandoned" in the game of great powers many times: in 1991, the United States encouraged the Iraqi Kurds to resist Saddam Hussein's regime, but stood by while it was suppressed;
The United States withdrew its troops from Syria in 2019, directly exposing the local Kurdish armed forces to Turkish military strikes;
After the change of the Syrian government in 2024, the Kurdish-controlled areas were regained by the new regime.
These tragic experiences have made the Iranian Kurdish armed forces wary of U.S. and Israeli support. As Urban Cunningham, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, said: "When Trump or Netanyahu ask the Kurds to confront the Iranian regime, they will inevitably think of the lessons learned by the Syrian Kurds."
Escalation of war: border confrontation and changes in multi-party forces
The current war has begun to show signs of insecurity. In a wonderful escalation, the Iranian military used missiles to attack the Kurdish armed headquarters in Iraq on March 5, 2026, in response to rumors of a so-called "cross-border attack";
Turkey, on the other hand, mobilized heavy armored troops to the Turkish-Iraqi border on the grounds of "anti-terrorism self-defense" and "establishing a humanitarian buffer zone." Its elite Second Group Army has been deployed to the Van and Hakkari areas, and its firepower can cover the Kurdish strongholds at a depth of 40 kilometers in Iran.
Turkey’s intervention is not out of support for the Kurds, but out of concern that the wave of separatism will spread into the country - 20% of the country’s population is Kurdish, and the conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has killed tens of thousands of people.
Chain risks: The hidden dangers of national disintegration and regional instability behind the conflict
The risks of this potential conflict far exceed the ethnic struggle itself. Once the Kurdish armed forces launch a large-scale offensive, it may not only lead to brutal suppression by the Iranian security forces, but may also trigger a chain reaction of other ethnic minorities such as Azerbaijan and Baloch, exacerbating Iran's civil war and the risk of national disintegration.
Neighboring countries such as Iraq and Pakistan have clearly stated their support for Iran’s territorial integrity;The neutral stance of the Iraqi Kurdish Autonomous Region also makes it difficult for the "proxy war" expected by the United States and Israel to proceed smoothly.
Hard Choices: The Hedging Logic of Gold in the Geopolitical Game
The statement of Shahnaz Ibrahim Ahmed, the first lady of Iraq and a Kurdish activist, expressed the plight of the ethnic group: “Kurds are often remembered only when sacrifices are required. An armed force for hire."
Now, this armed force, which has been pushed to the forefront by geopolitical games, is facing a difficult choice that can affect global asset prices - whether to risk being betrayed again and ignite a ground war, or to find a balance between national aspirations and real survival.
As a "sensitive probe" of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the Kurdish region has long become the "Achilles' heel" of Iran's national security, and any disturbance in it will directly activate the hedging properties of gold.
Once the conflict escalates and exceeds the critical point, the stability of the Persian Gulf energy channel is disturbed, and uncertainty in the Middle East situation surges, global capital will accelerate the influx of gold, a traditional safe haven, and push the price of gold to hit historical highs.
Every decision made by the Kurdish armed forces is not only related to the fate of their own ethnic group, but also becomes a key variable affecting the fluctuations of the international gold market, affecting the nerves of global investors.
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