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A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: a collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On March 9, 2026, the global foreign exchange market continued to be differentiated. Affected by multiple factors such as the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the differentiation of economic data in major economies, and central bank policy adjustments, the trends of different currencies showed obvious differences. This article integrates the core good and bad news of the day to provide a clear reference for foreign exchange trading, taking into account short-term fluctuations and medium- and long-term trend judgments.
1. Core good news (supporting the strengthening of related currencies)
1. China’s foreign exchange reserves hit a new high + the central bank’s exchange rate stabilization policy has strengthened, and the support for RMB liquidity has increased. Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that as of the end of February 2026, my country's foreign exchange reserves reached US$3.4278 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.85%, successfully standing at the US$3.4 trillion mark, a 10-year high, demonstrating the solid foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate. At the same time, the central bank will lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0 from March 2, reducing the cost of forward foreign exchange purchases by enterprises, supporting corporate exchange rate risk hedging, releasing a signal to stabilize the exchange rate, and indirectly supporting the strengthening of the RMB. In addition, the proportion of RMB settlement in Middle East crude oil transactions continues to rise, and the trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, further increasing the international demand for RMB.
2. The currencies of energy exporting countries have benefited from the surge in oil prices, with the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone performing strongly. Affected by the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and heightened risks of passage in the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices continued to soar, with WTI crude oil exceeding 90 US dollars per barrel and Brent crude oil touching 94 US dollars per barrel, pushing the currencies of energy exporting countries to strengthen. As of the morning of March 9, the Canadian dollar was trading at 1.37 against the U.S. dollar, a weekly increase of 0.79%. Canada's Ivey PMI rose to 56.6, and the economic data was improving, which further supported the strength of the Canadian dollar; the Norwegian krone rose simultaneously by 0.93%, benefiting from North Sea oil export dividends.
3. Risk aversion has increased, and safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc have been favored by funds. The conflict between the United States and Israel continued to escalate, global risk assets were sold off, and funds poured into safe-haven assets. As a traditional safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc rose 0.62% against the US dollar that day, continuing its recent strong trend. Market analysts believe that uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East will be difficult to subside in the short term, and safe-haven demand will continue to provide support for the Swiss franc.
2. Core negative news (suppressing the weakening of related currencies)
1. The U.S. economy shows stagflation characteristics, and the U.S. dollar index is under pressure and fluctuates. The U.S. unexpectedly lost 92,000 non-farm jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. At the same time, consumer credit growth slowed sharply. In January, it only increased by US$8.05 billion, which was lower than expected by US$12 billion, pointing to a decline in economic momentum; while soaring energy prices pushed up inflation expectations. , causing the Federal Reserve to fall into the dilemma of "raising interest rates to fight inflation will aggravate recession, and cutting interest rates to stimulate growth will aggravate inflation." Expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, and the U.S. dollar index has been under pressure. As of the morning of March 9, the U.S. dollar index fell slightly by 0.34%. It has risen by more than 1% for the whole week, but the short-term upward trend is weak.
2. Emerging market currencies are generally under pressure, and some currencies have hit phased lows. Affected by the decline in global risk appetite and the short-term safe-haven nature of the U.S. dollar, emerging market currencies have weakened. The Mexican peso fell to more than 17.8 against the U.S. dollar, a 7-week low, a weekly decline of 0.48%; the Brazilian real fell to 5.3 against the U.S. dollar, a 6-week low. The rebound in Brazilian inflation limited the space for interest rate cuts and further suppressed currency trends. In addition, the currencies of Asian crude oil importing countries have been dragged down by rising oil prices, and short-term weakening pressure has been highlighted.
3. Global trade tensions have intensified, and non-US currencies are under overall pressure. The United States plans to raise global general tariffs from 10% to 15%, which will take effect as soon as this week. This will intensify global trade frictions, trigger market concerns about global economic recovery, and put non-US currencies as a whole under downward pressure. At the same time, Europe, as a net energy importing region, is affected by concerns about energy supply interruptions in the Middle East. The trend of the euro is under pressure. Coupled with the European Central Bank's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, it is difficult to form effective support.
3. Core trading tips
The core logic of the foreign exchange market that day is "geographic risk aversion + energy differentiation + policy game". Trading needs to focus on three points: First, the progress of the conflict in the Middle East. If the risk of passage in the Strait of Hormuz intensifies, It will further push up the currencies of energy exporting countries and suppress the currencies of importing countries; second, the Federal Reserve’s policy signals, and the trends at the March 17-18 meeting will affect the trend of the US dollar; third, the RMB is supported by the policy of stabilizing exchange rates in the short term, but it is necessary to be wary of disturbances caused by fluctuations in global risk sentiment. Operationally, it is recommended to avoid unilateral aggressive trading, give priority to the correction opportunities of strong currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, be cautious about short risks in emerging market currencies, and strictly control positions to meet trading needs.
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