U.S.-Iran negotiations support oil prices, gold price remains stable at 5,000 mark, waiting for non-agricultural market situation

Basic news

In early trading in Asia on Wednesday (February 11, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$5,040.45 per ounce. The price of gold fell slightly on Tuesday, mainly due to investors in the United States. U.S. crude oil was trading around $64.30 per barrel before the key employment and inflation data were to be released. Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the market awaited progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States, developments in Ukraine, and U.S. economic data and crude oil inventory reports to provide guidance.

Focus during the day

OPEC releases its monthly crude oil market report, and Fed Schmid delivers a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks had mixed trends on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose slightly by 0.10%, hitting a new closing high for the third consecutive day; while the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index fell by 0.33% and 0.59 respectively. The market is digesting lower-than-expected retail sales data and awaiting the key employment report.

Retail sales data showed flat in December, below growth expectations, raising concerns about slowing consumption. At the same time, the technology sector was under pressure, with www.xmtraders.communications services becoming the weakest performing sector on the S&P. Alphabet's stock price fell 1.8% due to its bond issuance plan, exacerbating market concerns about high investments in AI. The four major technology giants are expected to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI by 2026.

Interest rate sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate performed better. Traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in April have increased slightly, but the market still expects rates to remain unchanged until June. Investors are cautious ahead of the non-farm payrolls report.

Individual stock sideOn the front, gains in Walt Disney and Home Depot supported the Dow; Coca-Cola fell 1.5% as revenue fell short of expectations; S&P Global fell 9.7% due to lower-than-expected profit forecasts, dragging down the share prices of peer rating agencies.

Gold Market

The price of gold fell more than 1% on Tuesday to US$5,013 per ounce. U.S. April gold futures closed up about 1% at $5,031 per ounce, mainly because investors chose to take profits and adjust positions before the upcoming key employment and inflation data in the United States. These data are expected to provide important guidance for the Fed's future interest rate policy.

David Meger, director of metal trading at High Ridge Futures, said that a slight correction or consolidation in gold prices before the release of a large number of key economic data is normal market behavior. He also pointed out that the weakness of the U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates still provide support to gold prices, and the psychological mark of $5,000 per ounce also provides some support.

In terms of specific data, the January non-farm employment report will be released on Wednesday, with the market expecting 70,000 new jobs; the January consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled to be released on Friday. In addition, the latest data showed that U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December, indicating that consumer spending and economic growth may be slowing.

Market concerns about the economic outlook have strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts. Traders now widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points this year. Since gold itself does not generate interest, falling interest rates will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus benefiting gold prices.

In terms of other precious metals, spot silver fell 3.3% to US$80.63 per ounce. Standard Chartered Bank pointed out in a report that outflows from silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) may lead to increased price volatility in the short term, but the fundamentals of tight supply indicate a possible rebound in the www.xmtraders.coming months. Spot platinum fell 1.8% to US$2,084.42 per ounce; palladium fell 2.1% to US$1,709.82 per ounce.

Oil Market

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the market awaited progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States, developments in Ukraine, and U.S. economic data and crude oil inventory reports to provide guidance. Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.3% at $68.80 a barrel; U.S. crude oil futures closed down 0.6% at $63.96 a barrel.

Traders remain on the sidelines until the diplomatic situation becomes clearer, focusing on transportation safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says nuclear talks show enough consensus to move forward. The EU plans to demand concessions from Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

In terms of U.S. economic data, retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December, and the market is focusing on the upcoming non-farm employment and inflation data. In terms of crude oil inventories, analysts expect U.S. crude oil inventories to increase slightly by 100,000 barrels last week.

Foreign Markets

The dollar weakened on Tuesday as data showed U.S. economic growth slowed, while the yenThe index rose for a second consecutive session after Sanae won the election.

Data from the U.S. Department of www.xmtraders.commerce showed that retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December, putting pressure on consumer spending. Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank, pointed out that the data strengthened the view that investors are shifting from U.S. dollar assets to safe-haven assets and emerging markets, and the U.S. dollar may weaken further.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, fell 0.15% to 96.805. The market this week will focus on the upcoming employment and inflation data in the United States to assess the economic situation.

The Japanese yen rose 1% against the US dollar to 154.285. Analysts believe that Sanae's fiscal stimulus policy may prompt the Bank of Japan to adopt a more hawkish stance, thereby supporting the yen. In addition, the strengthening of the yen triggered speculation that the Japanese authorities may intervene in the currency market.

EUR/USD fell 0.12% to $1.19075 after rising sharply on Monday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde downplayed the impact of exchange rates on policy, but exchange rate trends are still being watched by the market. The U.S. dollar edged up 0.21% against the Swiss franc, and the Swedish krona rose 0.16% against the U.S. dollar.

International News

Trump said he would take tough action if negotiations with Iran fail

On February 10, local time, U.S. President Trump said in a telephone interview with Israel’s Channel 12 TV station that if the United States and Iran cannot reach an agreement in the near future, he is prepared to “take military action like he did during the conflict between Israel and Iran in June last year.” Trump said Iran "very much wants to make a deal" but if negotiations fail, the United States will take "very strong action." Trump said the U.S. military deployment in the region provides important leverage to pressure Iran and confirmed that it is considering sending another aircraft carrier and its strike group to the Middle East. Trump confirmed that his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on February 11, local time, will mainly discuss the Iranian issue. According to his expectation, the second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran will be held next week. He stressed that any agreement with Iran must "not only include the nuclear issue, but also deal with Iran's ballistic missile issue."

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 78.4%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 21.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 78.4%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 36.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 57.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 5.8%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June is 48.6%.

The National Governors Association cancels the organization’s annual meeting with the president

According to US media reports on the 10th, the National Governors Association decided to cancel this year’s official meeting with President Trump at the White House because the White House plans to only invite Republican governors to attend the annual event. According to reports, the president of the National Governors AssociationOklahoma Republican Governor Kevin Stitt said in a letter to other governors on the 9th that the White House plans to limit invitations to the annual business meeting scheduled for February 20 to Republican governors. Because the association's mission is to represent all governors and governors of U.S. territories, the association is no longer an organizer of the conference and no longer includes it on the official schedule. White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt responded to this at a press conference on the 10th, saying that Trump "can invite anyone he wants to the White House for dinner or events" and "he welcomes everyone invited, and if they don't want to www.xmtraders.come, it's their loss."

The Israeli army plans to launch a new offensive to disarm Hamas

According to Israeli news on the 10th, the Israel Defense Forces is formulating plans to "launch a new offensive to disarm the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) by force" in the Gaza Strip. It is reported that the Israeli Southern www.xmtraders.command is formulating a series of operational plans in the Gaza Strip in case the government orders the Israeli military to disarm Hamas by force, but the prospects for the implementation of the plan are still unclear. Israel believes that if the Israel Defense Forces do not take action, Hamas will be "impossible" to disarm.

European Parliament moves closer to ratifying U.S.-EU trade deal after adding new clauses

The European Parliament is one step closer to approving a trade deal with the United States as senior lawmakers agreed to make adjustments ahead of a vote planned for this month. Members of the European Parliament's trade www.xmtraders.committee confirmed on Tuesday that they would hold a vote on February 24. They also agreed to add a sunset clause to the deal - which is set to expire in March 2028 unless extended - and give the United States six months to roll back the 50% tariffs currently on products using steel and aluminum. If the United States fails to reduce tariffs on products using the above metals to 15%, the EU will consider reinstating tariffs on U.S. industrial imports and some agricultural and food products. People familiar with the matter said large political groups such as the centre-right European People's Party and the Social Democratic Progressive Alliance supported the amendments. The plenary session of the European Parliament still needs to vote on the amendments, and relevant changes still need to be agreed in negotiations with member states.

Iranian officials: If the US-Iran nuclear negotiation is successful, the dialogue may be expanded to other areas

On the evening of the 10th local time, it was learned that Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Advisor to the Supreme Leader, said in an interview that day that the US-Iran negotiation process had gradually made progress in the previous stage. He pointed out that Iran is willing to continue to participate in relevant negotiations as long as the negotiations are realistic and feasible. Larijani called Iran's position in the first round of negotiations positive and said the next phase could bring opportunities for strategic detente, or at least a readjustment of political positions, depending on the final outcome of the dialogue. When talking about whether these negotiations mean a substantial change in the way Iran and the United States deal with differences, or whether they only remain at the level of "crisis management", Larijani said that the United States has put forward many proposals.The negotiations on the nuclear issue have been successful, and it is possible to expand the dialogue to other areas in the future, but it is not yet possible to say whether it will be able to enter the discussion stage on other disagreement issues.

The United States no longer supports the International Monetary Fund’s climate loans

The United States has stopped supporting the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) climate-related loan projects. After the Trump administration signaled a shift in priorities, the United States voted against or abstained from financing projects it had previously supported. The United States has not supported new or existing credit facilities under the Resilience and Sustainable Loans (RST) in any of the 12 votes held by the IMF's executive board since President Donald Trump took office last year, according to data released by the U.S. Treasury covering meetings through September last year. This new stance reflects Trump’s opposition to promoting joint global initiatives on environmental issues, as evidenced by his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. This is a sharp reversal from policy during the Biden administration, when the United States supported all RST-related projects. RST was established in October 2022 with the goal of helping poorer countries cope with the climate crisis.

Domestic News

Report shows: my country’s 76 scientific and technological journals are among the top international camps

The "World Scientific and Technological Journal Impact Index (WJCI) Report (2025 Edition)" released by the China Association for Science and Technology on the 10th shows that there are 76 Chinese journals that rank in the top 5% of the world's WJCI index subject rankings. The overall influence of Chinese journals continues to rise, and in some fields it has reached the top international level. The 2025 edition of the report includes 1,906 Chinese science and technology journals, 480 more than the 2020 edition; the average WJCI index of Chinese science and technology journals is 1.490, ranking 7th in the world, up 5 places from the 2020 edition; the average journal impact factor reaches 2.434, an increase of 1.2 times from 1.105 in the 2020 edition.

my country has achieved a breakthrough in calibrating international standard time "zero" for optical clocks

On the 10th, the strontium atomic optical lattice clock NIM-Sr1 developed by the China Institute of Metrology was officially approved to calibrate international standard time, achieving a breakthrough for my country's optical clock to participate in calibrating international standard time "zero". This is a milestone node in the research process of optical clocks in my country. It will lead more optical clocks in my country to participate in calibrating international standard time and www.xmtraders.comprehensively enhance my country's influence in the field of international time and frequency research.

The Central Bank of China: Further optimize the MPA framework and smooth the implementation and transmission of monetary policy

The Central Bank of China released the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the fourth quarter of 2025. The report proposes that the macro-prudential assessment (MPA) will focus more on serving the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. Based on the positioning of serving the implementation of monetary policy, we will further optimize the MPA framework, smoothen the implementation and transmission of monetary policy, guide financial institutions to implement monetary policy, maintain reasonable growth of money and credit, and increase support for key areas such as technological innovation and small, medium and micro enterprises.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: US-Iran TalksThe entire content of "It is judged to support oil prices, and gold prices remain stable at the 5,000 mark, waiting for non-agricultural market conditions" was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!

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