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2026 Trump agenda fully decoded, global capital has entered a critical situation
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: 2026 Trump agenda fully decoded, global capital has entered a critical situation." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
XM Foreign Exchange APP News - A series of political actions, international meetings and election games by the Trump administration in 2026 will continue to disturb the global financial market from the three dimensions of geopolitical structure, policy direction and political structure. The US dollar, gold, US stocks and on February 24, Trump will deliver the first State of the Union address of his second presidential term. This speech is the core basis for judging his fiscal, trade and foreign policies throughout the year, and is also an important vane for market layout. www.xmtraders.combined with the tough stance in his 2025 inaugural speech, this State of the Union address is likely to release a more radical policy signal. At the same time, Fed Governor Milan's term ends and his position may be vacated by Warsh. It should be noted that Trump's current sluggish approval rating may cause his policy agenda to be checked and balanced by Congress, and uncertainty about the implementation of the policy will intensify market volatility. If a large-scale fiscal stimulus signal is released in the speech, U.S. cyclical stocks and inflation-related assets are likely to be boosted; if trade protection or geopolitical toughness strategies are emphasized, it will boost market risk aversion. Gold, Trump's visit to China in April is the core node of Sino-US economic and trade relations in 2026. In the last round of meetings, China and the United States have reached a consensus that the United States will reduce some tariffs and China will postpone rare earth export controls. The outcome of this meeting will directly affect global trade flows, www.xmtraders.commodity prices, and the exchange rate trends of the RMB and the U.S. dollar. The trading side needs to focus on tariff adjustment, removal of trade barriers, and cooperation policies on key resources such as rare earths. If Sino-US economic and trade relations ease at the margins, and if copper and copper are successfully confirmed from early May to early July, Warsh will officially take over as chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 16, 2026 (the day after Powell’s term ends). The U.S. Supreme Court will announce rulings in a number of key cases, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. If the results favor the Federal Reserve, it may boost the Federal Reserve.Independence caused the dollar to rebound. At the same time, regarding issues such as birthplace citizenship, district redistricting, and dispatch of the National Guard, the ruling will directly define the boundaries of Trump’s governing power and even affect the distribution of seats in the U.S. Congress. If the ruling limits Trump's power, expectations for the implementation of his radical policies will cool down. U.S. stocks and the United States will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence on July 4. A series of celebrations across the United States may boost domestic consumer sentiment in the short term. The NATO summit held in Ankara, Turkey, on July 7-8 is a key node for geopolitical risks in July and throughout the year. The Trump administration’s threat to annex Greenland, a member of NATO, has become the biggest uncertainty of the summit. If the relevant threats from the United States continue, the atmosphere at the summit will become tense. Market concerns about the breakdown of the NATO alliance will push up the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold. The 2026 midterm elections on November 3 are the core political event of the year. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships will be elected. The results will directly determine the space for the Trump administration’s subsequent policies to advance and restructure the American political landscape. Judging from the current election situation and model predictions, Trump's sluggish support rate is www.xmtraders.compounded by the drag on people's livelihood issues. The Republican Party is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, and the Democratic Party is expected to dominate the House of Representatives. The election results have a clear impact on the market: if the House of Representatives changes hands, Trump will lose his three-power governing advantage, and his radical fiscal and foreign policies will encounter strong obstruction. If the Republicans unexpectedly hold the House of Representatives, expectations for the implementation of Trump's policies will strengthen, and inflation-related assets and geo-benefiting varieties will be easily supported. At the same time, political games before and after the election will intensify market volatility, and traders need to be vigilant about the advance deployment of funds and the fulfillment of expectations. December: G20 summit + lame duck effect, the market will face a double test of policies and funds at the end of the year. On December 14-15, the G20 leaders’ summit will be held at a resort owned by Trump. The United States, as the rotating presidency, has made it clear that it will streamline the agenda of the meeting. This may limit the G20’s global cooperation in areas such as climate, development, and the gap between rich and poor, exacerbating market concerns about global economic recovery, and suppressing the trend of risk assets. At the same time, the U.S.'s unilateralist policy tendencies will further increase the heat of geopolitical www.xmtraders.competition, and safe-haven assets such as gold may receive phased support at the end of the year. After the mid-term elections and before the new Congress convenes in January 2027, the U.S. political arena will usher in a typical "lame duck" effect. A large number of members and Trump, who is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, will face stagnation in policy advancement. Uncertainties in fiscal and foreign policies at the end of the year, coupled with seasonal fluctuations in funds, will lead to the release of concentrated risks in the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and global www.xmtraders.commodity markets, and market volatility may rise significantly. In addition, if Trump launches radical policies to shape his political legacy at the end of the year, it will become an additional disturbing factor for the market. The core logic of trading throughout the year summarizes a series of actions of the Trump administration in 2026, which determines that the market throughout the year will revolve around the three main lines of geopolitical risk, policy implementation, and political landscape. In the short term, we need to keep up with the events at each time point and seize the opportunity to switch between hedging and risk preferences; in the medium term, we need to pay attention to TrumpThe actual implementation effect of the policy and the strength of congressional checks and balances will determine the trend direction of the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks; in the long term, we need to be wary of policy shifts brought about by the restructuring of the political landscape after the midterm elections, as well as medium- and long-term market risks brought about by fiscal expansion and geopolitical games. Overall, market volatility may remain high in 2026, and trading needs to focus on event-driven rhythm control and risk control.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: 2026 Trump agenda fully decoded, global capital has entered a critical situation". It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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