Bank of England issues bonds, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on February 9

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.06%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.17%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.33%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.32%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.13%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.03%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.21%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The Bank of England issued bonds, reloaded the US dollar ammunition, and the foreign exchange reserve strategy quietly changed

⑴ The Bank of England announced on Monday that it had appointed four institutions, Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets, HSBC and Morgan Stanley, to serve as joint lead managers for a benchmark 3-year US dollar bond it is about to sell. ⑵The Bank of England stated that it expects to execute this USD bond transaction in the near future based on market conditions. ⑶ This bond issuance is a way for the Bank of England to increase its foreign exchange reserves. The Bank stated in September last year that it would shift to two benchmark issuances per year to gradually expand the scale of the foreign exchange reserve replenishment plan. ⑷ This move shows that the Bank of England is systematically and plannedly expanding foreign exchange reserves through the issuance of foreign currency bonds, rather than temporary market operations. ⑸ Increasing U.S. dollar reserve holdings will help enhance the Bank of England's ability to respond to foreign exchange market fluctuations and conduct potential intervention, especially when the pound is under pressure. ⑹ From the perspective of market impact, regularThe predictable issuance of U.S. dollar bonds provides a new supply channel for global U.S. dollar asset investors. It also reflects the major central banks’ preparedness for the adequacy of their balance sheets and foreign reserves in the post-crisis era.

Russian Foreign Minister stated that Russia will never allow the deployment of any weapons in Ukraine that threatens Russia’s security

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated on the 9th that Russia will never allow the deployment of any weapons in Ukraine that threaten Russia’s security interests. In an interview with Russia's BRICS TV station, Lavrov said that in the face of confrontation and threats initiated by the West, Russia must effectively ensure its own security. Russia will never allow "a Nazi regime supported by the West" to exist on its borders. Lavrov also said that the United States' position on Ukraine is important to Russia. Russia accepted the U.S. proposal to resolve the Ukrainian issue during the talks in Anchorage, but the U.S. was not ready to accept the relevant proposals put forward by Russia. Russia and the United States should have turned to extensive cooperation after the talks, but in fact everything developed in the opposite direction.

British government bonds extended losses and yields rose to session highs as political worries pushed Treasury yields to session highs after the Prime Minister lost two top aides in a row

British government bonds extended losses and yields rose to session highs as the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's second top aide heightened investor concerns about political turmoil. The 10-year Treasury yield once jumped 5 basis points to 4.57%, and the 30-year yield also rose by a similar amount to 5.39%. Downing Street www.xmtraders.communications director Tim Allen announced his resignation on Monday, saying the move was aimed at "creating conditions for the formation of a new No. 10 Downing Street team". Allen is the second senior Starmer aide to resign in 24 hours, after chief of staff Morgan McEwan resigned on Sunday amid the scandal over former Labor ambassador Peter Mandelson's relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Iran’s Foreign Minister: U.S. actions have caused Iran to have a “wall of distrust” against the United States

On the 9th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said at a public event that Iran has a “wall of distrust” against the United States, which is caused by the United States’ own actions. He emphasized that Iran seeks to achieve results through real negotiations, provided that the other party also shows a serious attitude. It is hoped that the necessary trust can be established to move the negotiations towards achieving substantive results. Araghchi pointed out that whenever the Iranian people are spoken to with tough and pressure words, the Iranian people will resist; and when www.xmtraders.communicated with the Iranian people in a respectful and courteous manner, the Iranian people will respond in the same way.

Microsoft's AI narrative is shaken, institutions are bearish, and the trillion-dollar ship is blocked

⑴ Melius Research downgraded Microsoft's stock rating to "hold". Its core view is that "artificial intelligence is engulfing Microsoft" and pointed out that the www.xmtraders.company's management has "lost its way in the artificial intelligence narrative." ⑵ The agency criticized Microsoft’s Copilot artificial intelligence assistant on the 365 platform for being too slow, and the current adoption model is more likeIs "seat first", this model is susceptible to the influence of channel agents rather than directly driven by strong end-user demand. ⑶ Melius further expressed concerns about the profit model of artificial intelligence, believing that the market's expectation of "paying extra for AI" may be difficult to achieve. Ultimately, Copilot may need to add products for free, which will increase the www.xmtraders.company's costs in the long run. ⑷ This bearish view is in contrast to the general optimism in the market. Data shows that 60 analysts currently give Microsoft a "buy" rating on average, with a median target price of $600. ⑸ Microsoft's stock price rose slightly by 0.47% in pre-market trading to US$403.68, but its cumulative decline of nearly 3.5% in the past 12 months has shown the market's continued scrutiny of high valuations and the ability to deliver on AI narratives. ⑹ This rating downgrade reveals a key point of disagreement in the market: whether the huge capital expenditures and R&D investments brought about by artificial intelligence can be transformed into considerable and sustainable profit growth in the short term. This will become the core variable that affects the valuation logic of Microsoft and even the entire technology sector in the future.

India adjusts the identification standards for cutting-edge technology enterprises and expands support to encourage innovation in core fields such as AI

India’s Ministry of www.xmtraders.commerce and Industry recently updated the identification standards for cutting-edge technology enterprises and extended the www.xmtraders.company’s qualification period to 20 years, aiming to stimulate innovation through tax incentives and government funding support. According to the new regulations, www.xmtraders.companies operating in the fields of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum www.xmtraders.computing, advanced materials, etc., with annual revenue of no more than 3 billion Indian rupees (approximately US$33.1 million) can be recognized as cutting-edge technology www.xmtraders.companies, while digital platforms and consumer applications that have dominated India's entrepreneurial ecosystem in the past are no longer eligible. The release of this policy adjustment www.xmtraders.comes as New Delhi is about to host an unprecedented global artificial intelligence event next week. Industry leaders such as OpenAI founder Altman, Google CEO Pichai, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei are expected to attend.

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae reiterated the promotion of tax cuts and promised to build an economic system resistant to exchange rate fluctuations

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae stated in his victory speech that he would promote tax cuts, including studying a two-year suspension of food and beverage consumption taxes, with the goal of www.xmtraders.completing a mid-term evaluation before the summer. She emphasized that she would not issue deficit bonds to fill the resulting fiscal gap. The tax cut policy is expected to reduce tax revenue by about 5 trillion yen per year. Takaichi Sanae also promised to build an economic system that can withstand exchange rate fluctuations and said it would closely monitor currency market trends. The ruling party's resounding victory in the House of Representatives election provided a broader public opinion basis for its policies.

Affected by US sanctions, Russian crude oil production fell for two consecutive months

Russian crude oil production fell for the second consecutive month in January, with average daily production falling to 9.28 million barrels (excluding condensate), a decrease of 46,000 barrels/day from December, and nearly 300,000 barrels/day lower than its production allowed in the OPEC+ agreement. The decline in production was mainly affected by sales difficulties caused by U.S. sanctions. andAt the same time, the amount of Russian crude oil stored in offshore tankers continues to rise, reaching 143 million barrels as of early February, almost double from a year ago and more than a quarter higher than in late November, indicating that it is difficult to find buyers for some crude oil. Previously, U.S. President Trump had announced the cancellation of the 25% additional tariff imposed on India in exchange for India stopping purchasing Russian oil.

The German bond auction has been cold, demand has ebbed, and the bottom of short-term interest rates may have been firmly established

⑴ Germany sold 12-month short-term government bonds through additional issuance on Monday, one of which was 1.93 billion euros, with an average yield of 1.976%, slightly lower than the previous similar operation of 1.985%. ⑵The bidding multiple for this treasury bond was 2.5 times, significantly lower than the previous 3.4 times, indicating that market demand has declined. ⑶ Another additional issuance of 12-month government bonds amounted to 1.68 billion euros, with an average yield of 1.982%, which was also slightly lower than the previous 1.987%. ⑷The bidding multiple for this treasury bond also dropped to 2.9 times, far lower than the previous 3.9 times, indicating a consistent downward trend in demand. ⑸Although the average yield of the two auctions declined slightly, more importantly, the bid multiples declined significantly, which shows that investors' willingness to pursue purchases at the current yield level is weakening. ⑹ The auction results reflect that although short-term German bond yields are still at low levels, the market's allocation demand may be close to saturation, or there is a wait-and-see sentiment regarding the future interest rate path of the European Central Bank. ⑺The weakening of demand indicators is a signal worthy of vigilance. It may imply that the bottom area of ​​short-term interest rates is being confirmed, and the space for further downward movement may be limited. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the demand changes in subsequent similar auctions to verify the trend.

The U.S. Energy Secretary will visit Venezuela, saying that deposing Maduro has nothing to do with oil but is just geopolitics

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright is about to visit Venezuela, becoming the highest-level Trump administration official to visit Venezuela since the arrest of the country’s former leader Maduro. Wright said in the interview that he will meet with Venezuelan Acting President Rodriguez during this trip to discuss the future of Venezuela’s state-owned oil www.xmtraders.company and other issues. However, he emphasized that the United States’ interest in Venezuela does not revolve around oil. The removal of Maduro is not to obtain more oil supplies, and its crude oil reserves are not a key consideration in decision-making. Wright said the move was a geopolitical issue because Venezuela has posed a threat to neighboring countries and the Western Hemisphere, exporting guns, drugs and criminals. He also said that oil being the country's main resource "may be a good coincidence, but it is just a coincidence." Wright reiterated that the United States' plan to promote Venezuela's democratic transition remains unchanged. It is expected that the country will hold democratic elections in the next 18 to 24 months, and said that this process needs to cooperate with the interim authorities and use economic levers such as the oil industry to advance.

The mystery of U.S. import volume, the fall from a high base, the pace of trade has quietly turned

⑴ Data from supply chain technology provider Descartes shows that the container import volume handled by U.S. seaports in January fell by 6.8% year-on-year, with a total volume of 2,318,722 20-foot TEUs. ⑵The main source of the year-on-year decreaseThe base was extremely high during the same period last year, when U.S. www.xmtraders.companies were preparing to stock up before Trump's tariffs took effect, causing imports to surge to a record high for the month. ⑶Despite the year-on-year decline, total import volume in January this year was still higher than the historical average for that month. ⑷This performance may indicate that current trade activities are returning to a more normal rhythm driven by relatively stable demand from the "rush to ship" mode driven by policy expectations last year. ⑸Container import volume is regarded as a key indicator of U.S. consumer demand and economic health, and its data changes have attracted widespread attention from investors. ⑹ In the future, the market will focus on whether import volume can continue to remain above the historical average after excluding the impact of an abnormally high base. This will help determine the actual resilience of U.S. domestic demand and the true direction of trade flows.

Thailand’s Pheu Thai Party won the election but did not obtain a majority of the seats

The 94% vote count results announced by the Thailand Election www.xmtraders.commission on the 9th showed that the Pheu Thai Party won 193 seats in the election of the House of www.xmtraders.commons of the Thai Parliament and will become the largest party in the House of www.xmtraders.commons. However, because it failed to obtain a majority of seats, the party needed to form a coalition government with other parties. The People's Party and Pheu Thai Party ranked second and third with 118 seats and 74 seats respectively. The Brave Justice Party and the Democratic Party ranked fourth and fifth with 58 and 22 seats respectively. Voting for this election was held on the 8th, with a total of 57 political parties www.xmtraders.competing for 500 seats in the House of www.xmtraders.commons. Anutin, Prime Minister of Thailand's caretaker government and leader of the Pheu Thai Party, refused to answer questions about the formation of the government at a press conference held on the evening of the 8th. The official vote count results must be announced no later than April 9. The new Congress must convene a meeting and elect a speaker within 15 days after the official vote count is announced. The lower house of Congress will then vote to elect the new prime minister. A referendum to start the process of amending the constitution, held simultaneously with the election of the lower house of parliament, was approved. Preliminary results show that 60% of Thai people are in favor of starting the constitutional amendment process, 32% are opposed, and about 8% of Thai people have not expressed their opinion.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1891, an increase of 0.64%. Before the New York session, the price of EURUSD rose during the last trading session and broke above the 1.1835 resistance, which represents a positive technical short-term formation (double bottom pattern), which may help it extend its intraday gains. On the other hand, the price reached the resistance of EMA50, which reduced its last advance. Furthermore, after reaching overbought levels, a negative overlapping signal appeared on the relative strength indicator.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3654, an increase of 0.33%. Pre-market in New York, GBPUSD is trading lower in choppy trading at the last intraday level, with the bearish correction trend prevailing on a short-term basis and it is trading along the support trend line, furthermore, it is trading below the EMA50The negative and dynamic pressures represented by the exchanges continue to exist, which reduces the chances of a sustainable recovery in the near term, especially after reaching overbought levels, which exaggerated the negative divergence of the relative strength indicator relative to price movements and the emergence of negative overlapping signals.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 5016.90, an increase of 1.16%. Gold prices fell on the last trading day before the New York session as the main resistance stabilized at $5,000, in addition to reaching the EMA50, which forced it to fall, especially on the relative strength indicator where a negative divergence started to form, which after reaching overbought levels was exaggerated www.xmtraders.compared to the price action, from where negative signals emerged.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 80.092, an increase of 2.87%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) price fell in the last intraday session to collect gains from its previous rise in an attempt to unload its overbought conditions based on the relative strength indicator, especially with the emergence of negative signals from there, influenced by the breakout of the bearish corrective trend line on a short-term basis. The price remains under negative pressure as it trades below the EMA50, which may reduce the chances of a sustainable recovery in the near term.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 63.590, an increase of 0.11%. Prices (crude oil) rose in the last intraday trade before the New York session, surpassing the resistance of the EMA50, shaking off its negative pressure, strengthening the chances of extending these intraday gains, especially as the main short-term bullish trend dominates, trading along the support trend line of this trajectory, and moreover, the relative strength indicator appears positive.

4. Institutional perspective

Morgan Stanley: European software stocks are facing internal and external www.xmtraders.competition, and corporate self-research and AI startups pose dual pressures

Morgan Stanley analysts said that European software stocks are facing www.xmtraders.competitive pressure from internally developed applications within www.xmtraders.companies and AI startups in vertical fields. The popularity of AI tools has lowered the threshold for independent research and development by enterprises, and AI startups focusing on specific scenarios have surpassed traditional large software www.xmtraders.companies in innovation speed. In addition, as some software www.xmtraders.companies adopt a sales model based on user seats, the reduction in the number of employees in customer www.xmtraders.companies also poses a challenge to software stocks. exhaustAlthough European software stocks rose slightly by 0.7% on Monday, the cumulative decline since the beginning of the year is still about 16%.

Institutional analysis: The U.S. January employment report will see a historic downward revision, drawing attention to the critical point of labor market growth

Institutional analysis shows that the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to be released on Wednesday has attracted much attention because it contains annual baseline revisions and is expected to reveal the true extent of the labor market slowdown in recent years. This revision will be based on more accurate quarterly employment and wage census data. Preliminary estimates show that the annual employment data as of March 2025 may be revised downward by a record 911,000 people, significantly lowering the original employment growth trend. Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at Bank of Montreal Capital Markets, pointed out that the impact of this revision is significant, and the current labor market is at a critical point between net employment growth and possible contraction. In addition to regular monthly data, this report will provide a key basis for judging the actual situation of the job market.

Morgan Stanley: The AI ​​boom continues to support strong sales prospects, and technology stocks are expected to rise after a correction in valuations

Morgan Stanley’s strategist team pointed out that the AI ​​boom continues to support strong sales prospects, and U.S. technology stocks are expected to rise further. The team, led by Michael Wilson, believes revenue growth expectations for Big Tech stocks have risen to "multi-decade highs" and valuations have declined following recent market volatility. The report specifically mentioned that the decline in the software sector provided "attractive entry points" for stocks such as Microsoft and Intuit Group. The report emphasized: "Market fluctuations like last week are not uncommon in major investment cycles. The fundamental momentum of the artificial intelligence empowerment sector remains solid, and we believe that the value of artificial intelligence application stocks has not yet been fully recognized by the market."

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Bank of England Bond Issuance, Spot Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Foreign Exchange Short-term Trend Analysis on February 9". It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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