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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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market news
The euro collapsed to a two-week low, and 1.18 became a "life and death line"?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The euro collapsed to a two-week low, 1.18 became a "life and death line"?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday, February 6, the EURUSD rebounded slightly after hitting a two-week low of 1.1765, trading around 1.18 during the European session. On the surface, the exchange rate seems to have stabilized, but analysts believe that this is more like a technical correction after a decline, rather than a signal of trend reversal. The entire market is still suppressed in a weak pattern, and the 1.1800 mark has become an important resistance level. If it cannot effectively break through and stand firm, the rebound is likely to be short-lived.
The global financial market has been turbulent recently, especially the sharp correction in the technology sector, which has triggered market concerns about the slowdown in corporate investment in the field of artificial intelligence. This risk aversion spread quickly, and investors turned to assets with more safe-haven properties. As a result, the dollar gained support and strengthened, which in turn further suppressed the performance of the euro.
U.S. employment has cooled significantly, and expectations for interest rate cuts have quietly increased.
The latest economic data in the United States has released an obvious signal of weakness. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits jumped from 209,000 to 231,000 last week, much higher than market expectations, indicating that the labor market is beginning to loosen at the margin. At the same time, the number of job vacancies fell to its lowest level in five years - only 6.542 million in December, down from 6.928 million in November. The previously released ADP private sector employment report was also weak, further confirming the cooling trend of the job market.
Normally, weaker employment data will enhance market expectations for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy ahead of schedule. Current federal funds rate futures show that the market has begun to seriously bet on the possibility of a rate cut within the year: the probability of a rate cut in March has soared to 22% from 9% a week ago, and the probability of a rate cut in April has risen from 24% to 40%. This change reflects that traders arein repricing future interest rate paths.
However, an interesting phenomenon is that even if expectations of interest rate cuts have increased, the US dollar has not fallen back sharply as usual. The reason is that, in the context of heightened global economic uncertainty, the dollar's safe-haven function has outweighed the downward pressure on its interest rates. Especially when some U.S. government agencies are facing a shutdown and the non-farm payrolls report is forced to be postponed until next week, the market lacks clear guidance and can only rely on fragmented data and sentiment to play games, causing volatility to quietly increase.
The European Central Bank is waiting to see what happens, as hidden concerns about euro zone growth emerge
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as scheduled on Thursday, and the deposit mechanism interest rate continued to remain at 2%. The policy statement emphasized that inflation is gradually moving closer to the 2% target, and believed that the current monetary policy stance was "appropriate". At the same time, it did not express concerns about the excessive strength of the euro exchange rate. Although such a statement is in line with expectations, it also means that the European Central Bank has no intention to take any action in the short term and will neither raise nor cut interest rates.
Although this "wait-and-see mode" has brought policy stability, it has not provided additional upward momentum for the euro. The real challenge www.xmtraders.comes from fundamentals - German industrial output released on Friday shrank sharply by 1.9% month-on-month, far worse than the expected decline of 0.3%; to make matters worse, the November data was also revised down from the original estimate of 0.8% growth to only 0.2% growth. As the largest economy in the euro zone, the weak performance of German industry has directly affected the market's confidence in a soft landing of the economy.
Industrial activity is a "barometer" of the economy, and its continued downturn may drag down corporate investment willingness and future inflation prospects, thereby affecting the space for the European Central Bank's subsequent decision-making. If growth momentum weakens further, markets will have to reassess the ECB's interest rate path. At present, the fundamental support of the euro is being eroded, and it is difficult to reverse the decline with policy determination alone.
As the key event approaches, the foreign exchange market may make a direction decision
The market will next usher in two important events worthy of attention. The first is whether ECB officials will speak publicly. Any subtle words about the path of inflation or the outlook for interest rates may trigger short-term violent fluctuations. Although the overall policy tone is relatively stable, if individual officials release dovish signals, it may still suppress the euro; conversely, if they emphasize their determination to fight inflation, it may bring a short respite for the euro.
The second is the initial value of the Michigan consumer confidence index in February in the United States. The market expected it to be 55.0, lower than the previous value of 56.4. If the actual data continues to weaken, it will further strengthen the narrative of consumer weakness and push the market to increase bets on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible; however, if the data shows resilience, even if it is only slightly higher than expected, it may be interpreted as that the economy still has support, thus boosting the dollar again and limiting the euro's rebound space.
From a technical point of view, 1.1765 has initially formed a support band, showing a certain degree of buying capacity, but there is obvious resistance in the 1.1880 area above. If risk sentiment fails to improve in the future and safe-haven buying of the US dollar continues, the exchange rate may still test the previous low again.point; on the contrary, if US data continues to be weak and market risk appetite picks up, the euro is expected to try to challenge higher resistance.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The euro collapsed to a two-week low, and 1.18 became the "life and death line"?" It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some contents in the article still need to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues:
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