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Gold prices retreat after hitting record highs, oil prices climb to five-month high

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xmtraders.commentary]: Gold prices fell back after hitting historical highs, and oil prices climbed to a five-month high." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

In early trading in the Asian market on Friday (January 30, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$5,412/ounce. After hitting a record high of US$5,596.33/ounce on Thursday, the price of gold fell sharply, as low as US$5,104.98/ounce, as investors hit a record high price. It chose to take profits after reaching a record high, but supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices are still expected to record their best monthly performance since the 1980s; U.S. crude oil traded around $65.66 per barrel. Oil prices rose more than 3% on Thursday, climbing to the highest level in five months, affected by market concerns that the United States may take military action against Iran.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks had divergent trends on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing lower as the latest corporate earnings reports raised concerns among investors about the prospects for huge returns on investments in artificial intelligence by technology giants. Although it recovered some losses in late trading, overall weakness in the technology sector still weighed on the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.11%, the S&P 500 fell 0.13%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.72%.

Microsoft’s stock price plummeted 10%, becoming the biggest factor dragging down the S&P 500 Index. The market is worried that its huge investment in OpenAI may not bring returns in the short term, and its cloud business revenue performance has not met expectations. The software sector generally suffered setbacks. SAP's US-listed shares fell 15% due to cautious cloud business outlook, ServiceNow's stock price fell 9.9%, and the stock prices of Salesforce, Oracle, Adobe, and Datadog all fell significantly. The technology sector fell 1.9% overall, becoming the worst-performing sector on the day.

Mr.PaleoLeonJohn Praveen, managing director of the www.xmtraders.company, said that Microsoft's performance disappointed the market, and investors are worried that investment in artificial intelligence will erode the profits of software www.xmtraders.companies. Against the background of multiple uncertainties such as personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, unclear path for interest rate cuts, and www.xmtraders.complex geopolitical situations, market sentiment has become cautious.

On the other hand, the www.xmtraders.communication services sector rose 2.9%, leading the way. Meta's share price soared 10.4%. The www.xmtraders.company not only gave optimistic revenue forecasts, but also announced that it would significantly increase its capital expenditure budget this year by 73%. In addition, IBM rose 5% due to higher-than-expected fourth-quarter profits, Caterpillar and Lockheed Martin rose due to profit growth and optimistic performance forecasts respectively, and Southwest Airlines soared 18.7% due to a positive full-year profit outlook, becoming the largest gainer in the S&P 500 Index.

Apple closed slightly up 0.72%. The financial report released after the market showed that its quarterly revenue exceeded expectations. The www.xmtraders.company's CEO Cook said that the demand for the latest iPhone was "amazing" and the Chinese market performed strongly. Tesla shares fell 3.5% as it announced plans to more than double capital expenditures to a record high.

Gold Market

Gold prices fell on Thursday as investors took profits after prices hit record highs, but prices were still on track to record their best monthly performance since the 1980s, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold fell 1.3% to US$5,330.20 per ounce. It once hit a record high of US$5,596.33 during the session and then reversed, reaching as low as US$5,104.98.

David Meger, director of metal trading at HighRidgeFutures, said: "We are witnessing a violent sell-off after precious metals hit record highs recently." Despite this, spot gold is still up about 24% so far this month, with a weekly increase of 7%. On the same day, UBS raised its gold price forecast for the first three quarters of this year to US$6,200 per ounce, and predicted that prices would fall back to US$5,900 by the end of the year.

Geopolitical tensions continue to provide support. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged Iran to restart negotiations on the nuclear deal, while Tehran threatened retaliation. In addition, Tether’s CEO stated that he plans to allocate 10%-15% of his investment portfolio to physical gold, and the holdings of the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, have also risen to a nearly four-year high.

In other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.1% to $114.141 an ounce, but has soared more than 60% this month. Platinum fell 3.2% to $2,602.85 an ounce; palladium fell 3.7% to $1,996.65 an ounce. Market analysis points out that products with smaller market sizes such as silver are susceptible to speculative capital flows, and price fluctuations may be divorced from physical demand fundamentals.

Oil Market

Oil prices rose sharply by more than 3% on Thursday due to market concerns that the United States may take military action against Iran., climbing to its highest level in five months. Brent crude oil futures rose 3.4% to close at US$70.71 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures rose 3.5% to close at US$65.42 per barrel. Both major benchmark oil prices entered the technical overbought range.

Sources said that US President Trump is considering options to target Iran’s security forces and leaders in order to promote “regime change” after the recent large-scale protests in the country. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the military is ready to implement any relevant decisions of the president. As an important oil producer in OPEC, if Iran is hit, it may affect global supply. Citi analysts noted that this risk has injected a significant geopolitical premium into oil prices.

On the same day, the EU Foreign Ministers' Meeting adopted new sanctions against Iran and designated its Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization in response to its suppression of domestic protests. On the other hand, the Kremlin confirmed that it has once again invited Ukrainian President Zelensky to Moscow for peace talks. If a peace agreement is reached, it may increase Russian oil exports and relieve supply pressure.

The U.S. dollar index remains near its low since February 2022, further supporting crude oil prices priced in U.S. dollars.

Foreign Markets

The dollar fell against the yen and the euro on Thursday, but remained above recent multi-year lows. Although the Fed's hawkish signal earlier provided support for it, continued investor doubts about the outlook for U.S. policy have weighed on the dollar.

Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, uncertainty about trade policy, and U.S. policy fluctuations are all factors that suppress the dollar. Scotiabank strategists pointed out that the current U.S. trade and geopolitical policies are worrying investors and are detrimental to the dollar. Although U.S. President Trump said the dollar's value was "very good," conflicting messages between the White House and the Treasury Department on the dollar have undermined market confidence.

In terms of the euro, its recent rise above the key mark of US$1.20 has attracted the attention of European Central Bank officials, who warned that rapid appreciation of the exchange rate may bring deflation risks. European Central Bank executive member Schnabel reiterated that the current monetary policy is in "good shape."

The Japanese yen took some respite from the weakness of the US dollar. There are rumors in the market that the United States and Japan may conduct exchange rate checks. Goldman Sachs analysis believes that coordinated actions by the two countries may limit further weakening of the yen in the short term. Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged.

International News

Zelensky looks forward to the implementation of the "energy ceasefire"

Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media on the evening of the 29th that US President Trump said that Russia agreed to suspend air strikes in the Ukrainian capital Kiev and other towns within a week to allow Ukraine to weather the severe cold. "We look forward to the implementation of this agreement." Zelensky said that this ceasefire is related to Ukraine's energy infrastructure and "energy is the basis of life." He expressed his gratitude to the United States and mentioned that Ukraine, the United States, and Russia discussed suspending attacks on energy infrastructure during talks in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, last week. Zelensky said that Ukraine looks forward to the implementation of this ceasefire www.xmtraders.commitment.It is believed that such "de-escalation measures can help make real progress towards ending the war." (Xinhua News Agency)

Another destroyer arrived and the United States deployed at least 10 warships in the Middle East

The British Broadcasting Corporation reported on the 29th, citing information from a ship tracking website, that as international public opinion speculated that the United States might attack Iran again, another US Navy destroyer arrived in the Middle East. The United States has deployed at least 10 warships in this region. According to reports, the U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Delbert D. Black passed through the Suez Canal on its way to the Persian Gulf on the 28th. So far, the United States has deployed at least 10 warships in the Middle East, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.

Trump: The nomination of the next chairman of the Federal Reserve will be announced next week

On the 29th local time, US President Trump said that he will announce the nominee for the next chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board next week. Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on social media earlier in the day for "again refusing to cut interest rates" and claimed that U.S. interest rates should be among the lowest in the world. Trump also said that the next chairman of the Federal Reserve will "do a good job" and that the Fed's current interest rates are "unacceptably high."

Trump and Democrats reached an agreement on funding issues to avoid a government shutdown

According to NBC, five people familiar with the matter said that US President Trump and Senate Democrats reached an agreement on Thursday to avoid a long-term shutdown of most departments of the federal government. The move is aimed at de-escalating a bitter fight between the Department of Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The funding fight came to a head after two U.S. citizens were shot and killed by law enforcement officers in Minneapolis. While funding for multiple agencies will be temporarily disrupted starting at 00:01 a.m. local time on Saturday, the impact is expected to be minimal as most federal employees do not work over the weekend. The Senate could vote on the funding deal as early as Thursday night. The House will return to Washington on Monday, where it will need to pass the bill and send it to President Trump for his signature.

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