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Risks to crude oil production intensify, but stronger dollar pares gains

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: Crude oil production risks intensify, but the strength of the US dollar narrows the gains." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday (January 28), the U.S. crude oil market staged a typical long-short wrestling show. WTI crude oil, boosted by EIA inventory data, once strongly broke through the key resistance level of $62.50. The bullish momentum seemed to be ready to go, but it was accurately suppressed by the surprise rebound of the US dollar index, and the increase narrowed significantly. This game dominated by supply-side benefits and currency-side pressure has not only reshaped the short-term oil price trend, but also made the subsequent upward path full of variables.

1. The supply-side tight situation and the support logic continue to be consolidated

The core support of the current crude oil market is still firmly rooted in the structural tension on the supply side. The winter storm that swept through the south-central to northeastern United States did not subside as quickly as the market initially expected. Instead, it continued to disrupt crude oil production and export links. According to data from ship tracking agency Vortexa, crude oil exports from U.S. Gulf Coast ports fell to zero on Sunday. Although there was a rebound on Monday, port loading and unloading efficiency and the recovery of transportation routes are still restricted by low temperature weather, making it difficult for short-term export capabilities to fully return to normal.

The EIA inventory report released today (covering the week of January 23) further confirms the pressure on the supply side. Data showed that U.S. www.xmtraders.commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.2 million barrels (market expectations were for an increase of 800,000 barrels), gasoline inventories fell slightly by 300,000 barrels, and distillate inventories continued their downward trend to 118 million barrels, a five-year low over the same period. This data breaks the market's expectation of "limited impact of the storm and gradual accumulation of inventories" and intuitively reflects the substantial impact of extreme weather on domestic crude oil production and refinery operating rates in the United States. It is estimated that the storm temporarily reduced the daily production of U.S. crude oil by about 350,000 barrels, accounting for 3.2% of the total U.S. production.%.

Disruptions on the overseas supply side cannot be ignored either. Kazakhstan's Tengiz Oilfield has continued to lag behind in resuming production since an equipment failure last month. The current daily output is still 200,000 barrels below normal levels, and there is no clear timetable for full resumption of production in the short term. As one of the world's important crude oil export hubs, the oil field's production capacity gap, coupled with supply disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico, jointly create a tight balance in the current crude oil market.

2. The sudden attack of the strong US dollar suppressed the upward momentum of oil prices

Just as the market was immersed in the positive supply and pushed oil prices higher, currency variables suddenly became dominant. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's public statement during the U.S. trading session directly ignited the dollar's rebound - he clearly emphasized that "the United States will always adhere to a strong dollar policy and rely on solid economic fundamentals to attract global capital inflows, rather than adjusting the exchange rate through market intervention."

This statement accurately hits the current market divergence in expectations for the US dollar. Previously, affected by the pricing of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, the U.S. dollar index continued to weaken, providing indirect support for U.S. dollar-denominated crude oil. However, Bessent's speech not only strengthened the U.S. government's stance on a strong U.S. dollar, but also eased the market's concerns about "the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar during the interest rate cut cycle," pushing the U.S. dollar index to rebound rapidly by 0.79% from the intraday low, returning to above the 103.5 mark.

For crude oil, the strong rebound of the US dollar is undoubtedly directly negative. As the world's core U.S. dollar-denominated www.xmtraders.commodity, the negative correlation between crude oil and the U.S. dollar index is clearly reflected today - the appreciation of the U.S. dollar means that the purchasing power of non-U.S. currencies decreases, thereby suppressing global crude oil demand expectations, and also reducing the willingness of speculative funds to allocate crude oil. As of 01:07 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at US$62.69, with the increase narrowing to 0.48% from 1.06% after the data was released. Oil prices have fallen back from the intraday high of US$63.20, highlighting the significant impact of pressure on the US dollar.

3. Lower target price: anchoring a reasonable range in the long-short balance

Based on the current market situation, I will lower the short-term core target price range of WTI crude oil to 63.50-65.50 US dollars. This adjustment does not deny the upward trend of oil prices, but is a rational calibration after the long-short power game.

The core logic of the downward revision lies in the substantial suppression of bullish momentum by a stronger US dollar. From a technical perspective, although WTI crude oil broke through the resistance of $62.50 and stood firm at the 200-day moving average of $62.23 (forming a solid support), the profit-taking triggered by the dollar's rebound has resulted in a "high and low" cross star pattern on the daily chart, suggesting that short-term bull power has been exhausted. If the U.S. dollar continues to be strong, oil prices are likely to fluctuate repeatedly in the range of $62.50-$63.00, making it difficult to quickly hit the previous high.

But at the same time, we also retain a certain amount of upside potential, and the core basis is still the supply risk that has not subsided. Winter storm hits U.S. crude productionThe impact of the epidemic is still continuing, and geopolitical risks have not left the scene either - a U.S. warship formation has arrived in the offshore waters of Iran, and the Trump administration's tough stance on Iran's nuclear negotiations has further increased the potential risk of interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East. If there are subsequent negative effects on the supply side (such as the escalation of the situation in Iran and the recovery of production in the Gulf of Mexico that is less than expected), oil prices are still expected to break through the suppression of the US dollar and move closer to the target of US$65.50.

4. Outlook for the market outlook: focus on two core variables

The current trend of the crude oil market has entered a two-way containment stage of "supply support" and "dollar suppression". The judgment of the subsequent direction needs to focus on the two core variables.

First, the sustainability of the US dollar trend. Although Bessent's statement boosted the U.S. dollar in the short term, the Fed's monetary policy is still the key to determining the mid- to long-term direction of the U.S. dollar. Today the Federal Reserve has announced that it will keep interest rates unchanged, and the market's pricing for two interest rate cuts this year has not changed significantly. If subsequent U.S. economic data show signs of weakness and interest rate cuts are expected to heat up again, the U.S. dollar's rebound momentum may quickly deplete, and the monetary pressure on crude oil will ease; conversely, if the economic data is more resilient than expected and the strong U.S. dollar stance is strengthened, oil prices will continue to be under pressure.

Second, the pace of subsidence of supply-side disturbances. Whether the impact of the winter storm will further expand, when production and exports in the Gulf of Mexico will be fully restored, and whether the resumption of production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan will be faster than expected, these factors will directly determine the sustainability of the tight supply situation. In addition, OPEC+'s attitude towards the current market is also worthy of attention - if the oil price correction is too large, it is not ruled out that OPEC+ may release a signal to reduce production and maintain stability, thereby providing additional support for oil prices.

On the whole, oil prices are still in a medium-term upward trend, but the short-term upward trend has been rewritten by the rebound of the US dollar. Within the new target range of $63.50-65.50, the long-short game may intensify. It is recommended to focus on the effectiveness of the $62.23 support level, as well as real-time changes in the U.S. dollar index and supply-side dynamics, and flexibly adjust the position strategy.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The risk of crude oil production has intensified, but the strength of the US dollar narrowed the increase". It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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