Oil prices climb to four-month high, gold price enters "self-propulsion phase" testing 5500 mark

Basic news

On Thursday (January 29, Beijing time), spot gold trading continued to hit record highs, currently testing the $5,500/ounce mark. This round of gains was mainly driven by continued economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and investors poured into safe-haven assets. The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was muted, with analysts pointing out that strong buying of precious metals seemed to have entered a "self-propelled phase"; U.S. crude oil traded around $63.53 per barrel, with oil prices climbing to a four-month high on Wednesday, supported by geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with the market reacting to the expected Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Nasdaq index closed slightly higher by 0.17%, driven by chip stocks, the S&P 500 index ended basically flat, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.02%.

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The statement pointed out that inflation is still high, but the job market has shown "signs of stabilization." The market interpretation showed little change in the tone of the statement, with traders still betting that the first rate cut would www.xmtraders.come in June. The S&P 500 briefly broke through the 7,000 mark for the first time during the session, but failed to hold on.

Chip stocks became the bright spot of the market, with Nvidia rising 1.6%, Micron Technology rising 6%, and Intel rising 11%. Texas Instruments surged 9.9% on an upbeat outlook. After the market closed, the "Big Seven" earnings season kicked off. Meta and Tesla's stock prices rose after the release of their earnings reports, while Microsoft fell more than 3% after their earnings reports.

Gold Market

Spot gold prices soared 4% on Wednesday, breaking through the per ounce mark for the first time in historyThe www.xmtraders.company hit the $5,400 mark, rising more than 25% so far this year. Silver also rose 3.3% to $116.69 an ounce.

This round of gains is mainly driven by continued economic and geopolitical uncertainty, with investors pouring into safe-haven assets. The market's reaction to the Fed's interest rate decision was muted, with analysts pointing out that strong buying of precious metals appears to have entered a "self-propelled phase."

Although technical indicators show that the market is overbought and a correction may occur, analysts believe that bargain hunting remains strong and the upward momentum remains unabated. Other precious metals such as silver also performed strongly, with platinum and palladium rising 2.5% and 7.2% respectively on the day.

Oil Market

Oil prices climbed to a four-month high on Wednesday, supported by geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar. U.S. crude oil futures closed up 1.31% at $63.21 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures closed up 1.23% at $68.40 per barrel. Both benchmarks were on track for their biggest monthly gains since July 2023.

The market was mainly driven by the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Iran to return to nuclear deal negotiations or face more severe strikes, while Iran has warned of an unprecedented counterattack. At the same time, a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East, exacerbating market concerns about supply disruptions.

The fundamentals of supply and demand also provide support. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, while the market had expected an increase. In addition, the winter storm sweeping across the United States caused domestic crude oil production to temporarily drop by about 600,000 barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of the country's total production. The dollar is hovering near four-year lows, also making dollar-denominated crude more attractive to holders of other currencies.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar maintained gains against the euro and yen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting, noting that inflation remained high and economic growth remained solid, but did not provide clear clues on when it might cut interest rates again in the future. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.8% to 96.667. The euro fell 1% against the dollar to $1.19163; the dollar rose 1.1% against the yen to 153.90 yen.

The dollar's intraday strength was also boosted by a speech by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, who reiterated that the United States pursues a strong dollar policy and denied that the United States was intervening in the currency market to support the yen. Previously, because U.S. President Trump said the value of the U.S. dollar was "great" when talking about it on Tuesday, the market interpreted this as downplaying the recent decline of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index once fell to its lowest level since February 2022.

The U.S. dollar index has fallen by nearly 2% this year, continuing last year’s decline of 9.4%. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, uncertainty about tariffs, concerns about policy stability, and rising fiscal deficits have all weakened investor confidence in the stability of the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy.

The euro has been performing strongly recently. On Tuesday, it fell from 202It topped $1.20 for the first time in a year, but fell back on Wednesday. ECB officials later expressed concern about the strengthening of the euro, noting that if the euro's appreciation affects the inflation outlook, the central bank may need to consider further easing policy. In addition, the yen is expected to post its strongest monthly gain against the U.S. dollar since April last year, partly due to market speculation about joint Japanese and U.S. intervention in the currency market.

International News

Rubio: The United States will soon establish a diplomatic mission in Venezuela

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said on the 28th that the United States will soon establish a diplomatic mission in Venezuela, which will allow the United States to obtain "real-time information" and interact with the Venezuelan government and all walks of life. Rubio accepted a congressional inquiry on the U.S. policy toward Venezuela at a hearing held by the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations www.xmtraders.committee that day. He said that Venezuela is cooperating with the United States and the two sides have established "productive www.xmtraders.communication channels."

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and said in a statement that the unemployment rate showed signs of stabilizing

Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates unchanged. The interest rate statement indicated that the U.S. economy had improved and signaled a more cautious approach to potential future interest rate adjustments. The Federal Open Market www.xmtraders.committee voted 10-2 on Wednesday to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at a range of 3.5%-3.75%. Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Millan voted against, arguing for a 25 basis point rate cut. In a statement after the meeting, policymakers said "job growth remains low and the unemployment rate is showing some signs of stabilizing." Officials also removed language about increased downside risks to employment that appeared in the first three statements. Despite increasing pressure from the Trump administration, the central bank's improved assessment of the labor market could dampen market expectations for a near-term rate cut. Ahead of the meeting, investors believed another rate cut was unlikely until at least June.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 86.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 39.2%.

According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 13.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 24.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 74%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 2.0%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until April is 39.2%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points and 50 basis points are 47.5% and 12.5% ​​respectively.

Zelensky said that Ukraine’s National Security Agency is planning new operations against Russia

Ukrainian President Zelensky said on January 28, local time, that Ukraine’s National Security Agency is continuing to plan new operations against Russia. These operations will change the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the same day, Zelensky listened to a report on the www.xmtraders.combat operations of the Ukrainian State Security Service, including frontline www.xmtraders.combat situations, especially the actions of the "Alfa" special forces of the Ukrainian State Security Service, and the actions taken by the Ukrainian State Security Service in Russia in response to Russian strikes.

US Secretary of State: The trilateral talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine are still advancing on the territorial issue and there are still differences.

On January 28, local time, US Secretary of State Rubio said that the trilateral negotiations between the United States, Russia and Ukraine on the Ukrainian issue are still advancing, but there are still differences on the Ukrainian territorial issue. "This issue is one of the few key obstacles in the current negotiations." Rubio said the United States would likely need to provide "security mechanisms" for any potential agreement to ensure its implementation. He said talks this weekend in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, would likely involve U.S. officials but not Witkoff or Kushner. Rubio did not specify who from the United States would participate.

The United States and Denmark have begun closed-door negotiations to resolve the Greenland issue

On January 28, local time, it was learned that Denmark, Greenland and the United States have begun closed-door talks on the Greenland issue. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said on the same day that negotiations on Greenland's security arrangements had been launched on the 28th. Representatives from the United States, Greenland and Denmark were conducting "technical-level" consultations, and said that relevant dialogue was "under way at this time." Rubio said that the United States will not use military force on the Greenland issue, and that US President Trump has made this position clear. He also said that the United States has established a promotion mechanism and that the process was launched on the same day and will bring "results beneficial to everyone" to all parties in Greenland.

Report: The Trump Justice Department’s investigation into Powell continues, and the Fed has not yet www.xmtraders.complied with the subpoena request

The Federal Reserve has not yet www.xmtraders.complied with a federal grand jury subpoena issued as part of the criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter. The investigation into Powell remains ongoing. It is worth noting that the news came just hours before the Federal Reserve announced whether it would cut interest rates for the fourth time in recent months. It's unclear when the deadline for the Fed to submit documents requested by the subpoena will be.

U.S. Democrats are using funding negotiations to press for restrictions on Trump's immigration enforcement actions

U.S. Senate Democrats are demanding new constraints on President Trump's immigration enforcement actions in exchange for their vote to avoid a possible long-term shutdown of the U.S. government starting Saturday. The demands, announced two days before the funding deadline, include imposing new use-of-force restrictions on Department of Homeland Security law enforcement. Democrats also have introduced requirements for the use of body cameras and judicial search warrants, requiring coordination of operations with local law enforcement agencies and banning facial coverings by Homeland Security agents.

Domestic News

Refresh three world records! "Chinese brand" crystal has made another major breakthrough

The Chinese Academy of Sciences introduced today (29th) that Chinese scientists have successfully developed the latest "Chinese brand" crystal - ammonium fluoroborate (ABF) crystal, which has achieved direct frequency-doubled vacuum ultraviolet laser output of 158.9 nanometers for the first time. It will play an important strategic role in precision manufacturing, cutting-edge scientific research and other fields. The relevant results were published today (29th) in the international academic journal "Nature" published.

my country has added 11 new national measurement benchmarks

The State Administration for Market Regulation has approved the creation of 11 new and the change of 1 national measurement benchmark device. The benchmark devices approved this time are mainly targeted at cutting-edge fields such as high-end manufacturing, biomedicine, and new energy, marking a solid step taken by my country in improving modern advanced measurement systems and filling gaps in the transmission of key values. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country built 45 new national measurement benchmarks, an increase of 150% www.xmtraders.compared with the "13th Five-Year Plan" period; the independent controllability rate of new benchmarks jumped from 20% at the end of 2020 to 78%. As of the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the total number of benchmark devices in my country has reached 219, fully covering ten basic fields such as geometric quantities, thermal science, and mechanics. The overall independent controllability rate of metrological benchmarks has increased to 59%.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Oil prices climbed to a four-month high, and gold prices entered the "self-propulsion stage" to test the 5,500 mark". They were carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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