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USD/JPY technical and fundamental analysis
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: Technical and Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
During the European trading session on Friday (January 23), the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) showed violent fluctuations of "shooting higher and falling + V-shaped rebound". The price fluctuated upward in early trading and accelerated to an intraday high close to 159.30 in the afternoon. The price gradually rebounded after hitting the bottom, and is now back to the 158.20 line, which is below the daily average price (158.45), and the short-term trend is weak.
The yen exchange rate hit a low of around 159.23 this week and briefly rebounded to 157.37 after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate meeting. However, dominated by fiscal concerns, the rebound lacked sustained support. The current exchange rate is approaching the key psychological mark of 160, and market expectations for the Japanese government's potential market intervention continue to rise.
The policy stance of the Bank of Japan is the core fundamental source of pressure facing the yen. On January 23, the Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, and a member's proposal to immediately raise interest rates to 1% was rejected. At the same time, the central bank raised its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-2026 fiscal year to 0.9%-1.0% and revised upward the core inflation path. It is expected that inflation will continue to be higher than the 2% policy target until the 2027 fiscal year. Governor Ueda Kazuo said that if the economy and price trends are in line with expectations, he will continue to advance the process of raising interest rates, but did not give a clear timetable, emphasizing the need to first evaluate the actual impact of the interest rate hike last December. The market interpreted this statement as slightly hawkish, but it failed to provide sufficient support for the Japanese yen in the short term, causing the exchange rate to show a volatile trend of first weakening and then rebounding after the meeting. Analysts generally believe that the Bank of Japan needs to send a clearer hawkish signal in order to effectively reverse the weakness of the yen; the market has currently priced in about two interest rate hikes in 2026, some of whichBranch agencies expect the number of interest rate hikes to be up to 3 times.
Fiscal expansion expectations and political risks have become key variables that currently dominate the trend of the yen. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi officially dissolved the House of Representatives on January 23, and an early general election is scheduled to be held on February 8. Takayama promised to end "excessive austerity" policies, including suspending food consumption tax for two years (expected to cause a tax loss of 5 trillion yen), and promote larger economic stimulus spending. This statement intensified the market's concerns about Japan's fiscal deficit - Japan's current fiscal deficit rate ranks first among developed countries, which triggered violent turmoil in the Japanese bond market: the 40-year government bond yield exceeded 4% and hit a record high, and the 10-20-year government bond yield also rose sharply. Although Koichi's personal support rate remains high and he aims to consolidate power through the general election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s overall poll performance is weak and the uncertainty of the election result has further amplified the selling pressure on the yen. Currently, fiscal-led concerns have overshadowed interest rate differentials and become the primary reason dragging down the yen.
The Japanese yen's weakness has continued to deepen since the high market came to power in October, during which it has depreciated by more than 7% against the US dollar. Although the Bank of Japan has the prospect of raising interest rates, the bond market selling pressure triggered by loose fiscal expectations has significantly weakened the safe-haven properties of the yen. Strategists warn that if the exchange rate exceeds the 160 mark, it may trigger intervention by the Japanese government. Japan's Finance Minister has made it clear through verbal warnings that "no means will be ruled out" to deal with speculative exchange rate fluctuations.
If the Liberal Democratic Party led by Takaichi achieves a "big victory" in the general election (such as monopolizing a majority of seats in parliament), many analysts believe that this will further strengthen the expansionary fiscal policy orientation and promote the accelerated weakening of the yen. Strategists at Mitsubishi UFJ (MUFG) and Sumitomo Mitsui Nikko (SMBC Nikko) pointed out that after the general election victory is confirmed, the market's concerns about the high market's increased fiscal expansion with public support will intensify, accelerating the selling of the yen, and the upward pressure on the US dollar/yen continues to increase; Junya Tanase, head of foreign exchange strategy at JPMorgan, believes that after the high market clarifies the details of the expansionary policy, the yen's fundamental weakness It will continue, and USD/JPY is expected to rise to 164 by the end of 2026; Nomura and Pepperstone believe that the reflationary policy tendency of the high market will suppress the trend of the yen. Although it will support the stock market, it will intensify the steepening of the yield curve; Orbex analysts believe that the election victory will cause the yen to "slightly weaken", and the specific extent depends on the details of the economic plan, and may reactivate arbitrage trade.
Other views believe that a victory in the general election may cause the yen to depreciate by more than 2% in the short term, but if the Kaohsiung City Government implements "responsible proactive fiscal", it may be able to limit the extent of depreciation and ease the pressure for further weakening; in the medium term, if the Bank of Japan accelerates interest rate increases due to inflation continuing to exceed 2%, it is expected to partially offset the drag of fiscal expansion on the yen.
In the next few days, U.S. economic data will be relatively light, mainly focusing on manufacturing and real estate. nowThe initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for January, which will be released later, is the most watched data in the short term. If confidence rises unexpectedly, it may alleviate market concerns about the slowdown of the U.S. economy, thereby providing some support for the US dollar. In addition, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index early next week will also provide clues about the prosperity of the regional manufacturing industry, but its influence is relatively limited and plays more of a sentiment guidance role.
On the whole, the impact of the data in the next few days on the market will be moderate, and it is unlikely to cause significant fluctuations alone. In the absence of major data, the USD/JPY exchange rate trend is more likely to continue to be dominated by Japan's fiscal and political risks, changes in U.S. bond yields, and intervention expectations.
Looking to the short term, the weak Japanese yen will still dominate the market, with the exchange rate target range pointing to 159-160+. The impact of fiscal and political risks has overshadowed the hawkish tendency of the Bank of Japan, and the risk of intervention continues to be high. In the medium term, if the high market wins the election, the fiscal expansion policy will continue to suppress the yen, and the exchange rate may move closer to the 160-164 range; however, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike path (if inflation continues to be above 2%) will provide potential support for the yen. It is recommended to closely track the results of the February 8 election and this week's core U.S. economic data (especially core PCE). Once the exchange rate breaks through the 160 mark, the probability of the Japanese government's intervention in the market will increase significantly.
Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY remained stable near 157.41. After building a bottom, the currency pair began a new round of rise, breaking through the 158.00 mark.
From the 4-hour chart, the exchange rate has climbed above 158.20, and at the same time broke through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (158.42) of the downward trend from the high of 159.43 to the low of 157.41. The exchange rate is currently firmly above the short-term moving average on the 4-hour chart.
Short-term resistance:
The initial resistance is around 158.96, which is also the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the downward trend from the high of 159.43 to the low of 157.41.
If the closing price stands above 158.96, it may open upward space and point to the previous high of 159.43; further rises are expected to start a steady upward trend.
Downside risk:
If it fails to break through 158.96, it may trigger a new round of correction.
Initial support is at 158.18 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement), and the first key support area for bulls is near 158.00, which is also the support level of a major rising trend line.
If the closing price falls below 158.00, it may trigger a sharp decline. The next support level is 157.89 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement level). After falling below, the bears may further drop to the previous low of 157.41.
The above content is all about "[XM Official Website]: Technical and Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! feelThanks for the support!
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