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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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The Fed may only cut in June, and September may be the last

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: The Federal Reserve may only cut in June, and September may be the last drop." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

According to the latest monthly survey by Bloomberg, economists currently do not expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates until June.

Just last month, economists predicted that the first interest rate cut this year would occur in March. However, as inflationary pressures have not www.xmtraders.completely subsided and the labor market has shown signs of stabilization, the interest rate cut schedule has been further pushed back. Policymakers' preferred measure of inflation is expected to remain above their 2% target until at least the middle of next year.

After three consecutive cuts in borrowing costs at the end of 2025, Fed officials are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting. Economists in the survey predicted that the second and final interest rate cut this year would occur in September, a judgment consistent with last month's survey.

Investors have also postponed expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts. According to the federal funds rate futures contract, the market currently believes that the first interest rate cut is "more likely to occur until at least June." In contrast, a month ago, the market was still more inclined to believe that the probability of an interest rate cut in April was greater than that of no interest rate cut.

In addition, after experiencing the strongest two consecutive quarters of economic growth since 2021, the Fed is not under pressure to cut interest rates immediately. At the same time, forecasters believe the drag on gross domestic product (GDP) from the government shutdown will be less than previously expected. U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in the fourth quarter, which is not only more than twice what economists had predicted, but is also basically consistent with the long-term growth trend of the United States.

There are still disagreements among Fed officials over when and how much interest rates should be cut this year, with reservations mainly concerned about the risk of inflation. So-called core personal consumption excluding food and energy pricesThe cost price index (core PCE) is expected to average 2.7% this year and will gradually fall back to 2.2% before mid-2027.

The Bloomberg survey was conducted from January 15th to 21st, and a total of 75 economists were interviewed. At the time, pressure was rising from the Trump administration that could threaten the Fed's independence. A few days before the investigation began, the U.S. Department of Justice issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve; at the same time, the U.S. Supreme Court also held a hearing this week to discuss whether the president has the authority to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

Diane Swonk, chief economist of KPMG, said: "Many things the Federal Reserve does are based on trust - this is the basis of the market economic system. Once trust is eroded, all transactions will become more expensive."

The above content is about "[XM official website]: The Fed may only cut in June, and September may be the last cut". It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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The Fed may only cut in June, and September may be the last

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