Geopolitical support for oil prices rises, risk aversion rises, and gold prices point to the 5050 mark

Basic news

On Monday (January 26th, Beijing time), spot gold continued to rise, setting a new all-time high of US$5,027.45 per ounce, and is expected to test the US$5,050 per ounce mark within the day, benefiting from geopolitics Political turmoil and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts have jointly pushed investors into safe-haven assets; U.S. crude oil is trading around $61 per barrel. Oil prices are supported by the geopolitical situation. The impact of the United States imposing new sanctions on Iran and sending military forces to the Middle East has intensified market concerns about possible interruptions in crude oil supply in the region.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed on Friday with mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Index closed lower due to Intel's pessimistic financial forecast, the S&P 500 Index was basically flat, and the Nasdaq Index rose slightly. All three major indexes recorded declines throughout the week, mainly affected by geopolitical tensions and corporate earnings reports.

Intel’s stock price plummeted 17% due to lower-than-expected quarterly revenue and profit forecasts, dragging down market sentiment. The www.xmtraders.company said it was struggling to meet demand for server chips in artificial intelligence data centers.

Despite last week's decline, investors remain confident in the U.S. economy and corporate earnings, but expect the 2026 midterm election year to bring market volatility. Most giants in the technology sector rose last Friday, with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and others seeing significant gains. The energy sector has performed well, setting record closing prices for three consecutive days and leading gains so far this year.

Many technology giants will release financial reports this week, and the market will focus on whether www.xmtraders.companies can achieve expected growth to support current valuations. Analysts believe that the earnings season will enter the "verification phase", and www.xmtraders.companies will need to prove that their revenue canOnly by doing this can we keep the stock price rising.

Gold Market

The precious metals market is experiencing a historic market. Spot gold continued to rise at the opening on Monday, setting a new all-time high of US$5,027.45 per ounce. Market analysts believe that geopolitical turmoil and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts have jointly pushed investors into safe-haven assets.

The analysis pointed out that since the beginning of 2026, geopolitical frictions surrounding Greenland, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and continued economic policy uncertainty have jointly pushed up gold demand. Market opinion believes that gold's strategic value as a hedging tool and a tool for diversifying investment portfolios is becoming increasingly important in the current environment.

Spot silver reached a record high of $106.47 per ounce in early trading on Monday. This rise was not only driven by risk aversion, but also supported by the fundamentals of blocked expansion of refining capacity and long-term market supply shortages.

At the same time, platinum and palladium prices also rose sharply. Platinum has attracted investor demand as a "low-price alternative" to gold, and its price has hit a record high. HSBC analysis pointed out that the platinum market is expected to have a significant structural supply gap in 2026.

Oil market

Oil prices rose sharply by nearly 3% on Friday, closing at the highest level in more than a week. The market was mainly affected by the United States imposing new sanctions on Iran and sending military forces to the Middle East, exacerbating concerns about possible disruptions to crude oil supplies in the region.

Brent crude oil futures rose 2.8% to US$65.88 per barrel; US crude oil futures rose 2.9% to US$61.07 per barrel. Both major crude oil benchmarks recorded weekly gains of more than 2.5%.

U.S. President Trump announced new sanctions on ships and www.xmtraders.companies transporting Iranian oil, and dispatched a fleet to the Middle East to further pressure Iran. Risks to supplies from Iran, OPEC's fourth-largest oil producer, have pushed up oil prices.

In addition, the continued production shutdown of large oil fields in Kazakhstan also supported oil prices. The Tenggez oil field, one of the world's largest oil fields, has suspended production due to a fire, and its operator said output has not yet been restored. JPMorgan Chase analysis pointed out that the suspension of production at the oil field may lead to a sharp decline in Kazakhstan's crude oil production in January, further tightening market supply.

Oil price trends last week were dominated by geopolitical events. Oil prices rose early in the week on tensions over Greenland, but fell on Thursday as tensions eased. Last Friday, as U.S.-Iran relations became tense again, the market focus returned to supply risks in the Middle East, and oil prices resumed their upward trend.

Foreign Market

The foreign exchange market fluctuated significantly last Friday. The Japanese yen rose sharply twice during the session, triggering speculation that the Japanese authorities may conduct exchange rate intervention. The U.S. dollar index continued its decline, recording its largest weekly decline in months.

The yen rose to 155.855 yen against the US dollar in late trading in New York, having hit a nearly 18-month low of 159.2 during the session. Market analysis believes that inThe sudden rebound in the yen after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged may be related to the authorities conducting exchange rate "asking", a www.xmtraders.common verbal intervention method to send a warning signal to the market. Traders remain wary of the possibility of Tokyo stepping in to curb the yen's decline. Analysts pointed out that since the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office, market concerns about Japan's financial situation have continued to put pressure on the yen.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar suffered a broad sell-off. The U.S. dollar index closed at 97.571, down more than 1% last week, the largest weekly decline since June last year. The geopolitical situation, especially tensions surrounding Greenland, is a major factor weighing on the dollar and market risk sentiment. Although U.S. President Trump said last week that he had obtained "full access" to Greenland through the agreement and ruled out the possibility of taking it by force, related uncertainty has hit U.S. assets hard at the beginning of this week.

Major non-US currencies strengthened. The euro rose 0.5% against the dollar to $1.181, while sterling was at $1.362, with the unexpected increase in UK retail sales having limited impact. The overall market sentiment is becoming cautious, and investors are adjusting their positions amid multiple uncertainties.

International News

German congressmen called for the withdrawal of gold reserves in the United States and questioned the safety of overseas storage

According to German media reports on the 23rd, German congressman Straker Zimmermann called on the German federal government to withdraw gold reserves stored in the United States to Germany. She said that at a time when global uncertainty is increasing and U.S. policy is unpredictable, it is no longer reasonable to store about 37% of Germany's gold reserves in New York. For decades, Germany has stored more than 1,200 tons of gold reserves in the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank vault in Manhattan, New York City. Currently, about half of the gold held by Germany is stored in the vaults of Frankfurt, the country's financial center, and another 13% is stored in London, the British capital.

Japanese Prime Minister said that necessary actions will be taken against speculative market fluctuations

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae responded to the recent fluctuations in the government bond market and the depreciation of the yen, saying that the government will not www.xmtraders.comment on specific market fluctuations, but emphasized that necessary measures will be taken against "speculative or abnormal market behavior." This statement did not reveal any further details. The Japanese yen exchange rate has fluctuated violently recently. After falling below the important psychological level of 160 against the US dollar, market expectations for possible government intervention in the foreign exchange market have increased. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York suddenly conducted an exchange rate check on Friday. Some traders believed that this move may indicate that the United States and Japan may jointly act to prevent further depreciation of the yen. Subsequently, the yen exchange rate rebounded rapidly. Currently, both Japanese government bonds and the yen are facing selling pressure. The market is concerned that Sanae's expansionary fiscal policy and the relatively slow pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may lead to an increase in government debt and the risk of excessive inflation.

The US government plans to invest US$1.6 billion to strengthen the rare earth supply chain

The US government will invest US$1.6 billion in domestic rare earth www.xmtraders.companies to strengthen the critical mineral supply chain. According to reports, specialThe Trump administration plans to inject capital into USA Rare Earth, which will be its largest investment in the field. The government will acquire a 10% stake in the www.xmtraders.company, and the deal is expected to be officially announced on Monday. According to people familiar with the matter, the investment will be accompanied by a $1 billion private financing. The government purchased 16.1 million shares and 17.6 million warrants at a price of $17.17 per share, for a total payment of $277 million. Based on the current market price of US$24.77, this equity has generated an implied income of approximately US$490 million. The American Rare Earth Corporation is headquartered in Oklahoma and controls important domestic heavy rare earth resources in the United States.

Trump said that the United States will obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base is located in Greenland

US President Trump said that the United States is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base is located in Greenland, and said that relevant negotiations are "progressing smoothly" and "we will get everything we want." It is reported that this does not involve the full takeover of Greenland by the United States, but rather makes US military facilities, including the Pitufik Space Base, an area under US sovereign control. Greenland has clearly expressed its opposition, calling the sovereignty issue an "insurmountable red line."

The U.S. Treasury Secretary issued a signal: He may consider canceling the additional tariffs on India in exchange for energy transition

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent revealed to the media during the Davos Forum on Friday that since the 25% tariff imposed by the United States on India has caused India to significantly reduce its purchases of Russian oil, the United States may consider canceling this additional tariff, calling this tariff policy a "huge success." Bessent pointed out that Indian refineries' imports of Russian oil have experienced a "collapse-like decline" due to the impact of tariffs, suggesting that as long as India continues to adjust its energy import structure and reduce its dependence on Russia, the United States may eliminate tariffs through diplomatic channels. He emphasized that relevant trade measures have brought substantial benefits to the US economy. This statement shows that the United States is using tariff tools to push India to coordinate its energy strategy with its stance, while also leaving room for easing trade tensions between the United States and India. If the tariffs are eliminated, it may help reshape the economic and trade relations between the two countries and further affect the global energy trade pattern.

The Israeli army said it has entered a state of high alert and is paying close attention to the regional situation

On the 25th local time, Rafi Milo, www.xmtraders.commander of the Israel Defense Forces Northern www.xmtraders.command, said that in view of the continued rise in regional tensions, the Israeli army is preparing for the chain reaction caused by the possible military action by the United States against Iran and has entered a state of high alert. Milo said that the United States has recently strengthened its military deployment in many places in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, and the Israeli military is paying close attention to the development of the situation. He pointed out that if the United States decides to launch an attack on Iran, part of Iran's response may affect Israel, and the Israeli military is ready for this. Milo also said that Israel is paying close attention to whether Lebanese Hezbollah may join the wider conflict. He emphasized that the Israeli army has maintained a high level of alert in terms of defense and preparations for offense if necessary.

Russia: Progress has been made in resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the 23rd that the work to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still in progress and progress has been made. Russia emphasized the need to implement the negotiating framework established by Russian and American leaders during their meeting in Anchorage. A security working group www.xmtraders.composed of representatives from Russia, the United States, and Ukraine held its first meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on the 23rd. The talks are the first trilateral contact between Russia, the United States and Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated in February 2022. The talks will last for two days.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is 2.8%, and the probability of at least one rate cut by June is 59.4%.

According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by March is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 0.4%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 40.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June is 45.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 12.8%.

Domestic News

Last year, my country established 1,139 new national reference materials, a year-on-year increase of 61.8%.

The State Administration for Market Regulation released data that in 2025, my country established 1,139 new national reference materials, a year-on-year increase of 61.8%. There are 67 national first-level reference materials, accounting for 5.9%, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%; there are 1,072 national second-level reference materials, accounting for 94.1%, a year-on-year increase of 65.2%. Up to now, my country has built a total of 19,441 national standard materials, providing strong support for high-quality economic and social development.

The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China conduct the bidding for the 2026 central treasury cash management www.xmtraders.commercial bank time deposit (first phase)

The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China are scheduled to conduct the 2026 central treasury cash management www.xmtraders.commercial bank time deposit (first phase) bidding through the People's Bank of China central treasury cash management www.xmtraders.commercial bank time deposit business system from 9:00 to 9:30 am on January 28, 2026. The operation volume of this period is 150 billion yuan, the term is 1 month (28 days), the interest date is January 28, 2026, and the expiration date is February 25, 2026 (extended in case of holidays). Bidding will be conducted with interest rate bidding and single price winning methods for participating banks in the central treasury cash management www.xmtraders.commercial bank time deposit business.

The above content is all about "[XM Official Website]: Geopolitical support for oil prices to rise, risk aversion rising, gold price pointing to the 5050 mark". It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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