Supply concerns support oil prices, Trump withdraws some tough threats on Greenland, gold prices fall after hitting record high

Basic news

On Thursday (January 22, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,812/ounce. The price of gold hit a record high on Wednesday and then narrowed its gains to US$4,888.17/ounce. President Trump withdrew some tough threats on the Greenland issue, easing geopolitical tensions; U.S. crude oil traded around $60.57 per barrel. Oil prices rose more than 3.6% on Wednesday, mainly supported by supply concerns caused by production interruptions at Kazakhstan's large oil fields and the slow recovery of Venezuelan exports.

Focus during the day

The European Central Bank released the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting, and EU leaders held an emergency summit in Brussels to discuss relevant plans to deal with Trump's tariff threat.

Stock Market

Boosted by the news of the Greenland Framework Agreement, the major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up more than 1% on Wednesday, recording their largest single-day gain in many months. The day before, the market fell sharply due to concerns about tariffs. Trump announced that he had formed a "future transaction framework" on Greenland and the Arctic and canceled the tariffs originally scheduled to take effect on February 1, which eased investors' anxiety about the outbreak of new trade conflicts between Europe and the United States.

As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.21%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.16%, and the Nasdaq www.xmtraders.composite Index rose 1.18%. All sectors of the S&P 500 advanced, led by energy stocks and a regional bank index that rose to a 14-month high on positive earnings reports.

In terms of individual stocks, United AirlinesStocks rose on an optimistic outlook, but Netflix and Kraft Heinz fell on earnings reports and news of shareholder reductions. Market analysts believe that the agreement itself has limited direct impact on the economy, but it avoids tariff escalation and allows investors to refocus on the positive fundamentals of the U.S. economy.

Gold Market

Gold prices fell from record highs on Wednesday, with gains narrowing. Previously, U.S. President Trump withdrew some tough threats on Greenland, easing geopolitical tensions, driving a rebound in stock markets and weakening gold's safe-haven appeal.

Spot gold rose 0.3% on Wednesday to close at $4,778.51 an ounce, having hit a record high of $4,888.17 during the session. U.S. gold futures settlement prices rose 1.5%. Analysis pointed out that news about the withdrawal of European and American tariff threats boosted the stock market, causing some of gold's gains to be wiped out, but this may only be a short-term fluctuation and has not changed its long-term trend. After rising 64% in 2025, gold has risen 11% so far in 2026.

Other precious metals generally pulled back: spot silver fell 3.6%, platinum fell slightly by 0.1%, and palladium fell by 2.1%. Some strategists believe that although silver may undergo adjustments and fluctuations, its price momentum may still push it to exceed $100 an ounce in the future.

Oil Market

Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, mainly supported by supply concerns caused by production disruptions at Kazakhstan's large oil fields and the slow recovery of Venezuelan exports. Brent crude oil and U.S. crude oil rose 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

On the supply side, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field suspended production due to force majeure in the pipeline transporting oil to the Black Sea terminal. The country’s output is expected to be affected for another seven to ten days. Meanwhile, Venezuela has made slow progress on oil exports under its agreement with the United States, hampering its ability to fully reverse recent production cuts.

On the demand side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 in its latest report, indicating that the market oversupply situation may be slightly alleviated. In addition, geopolitical tensions continue to bring a risk premium to the market. The market is looking to U.S. crude oil inventory data due out later for further direction.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar strengthened sharply on Wednesday, mainly driven by U.S. President Trump's announcement to withdraw tariff threats against many countries and that he had reached a framework agreement with NATO on the future of Greenland. This statement eased market concerns about escalating trade tensions and drove the stock market to rise significantly.

In terms of specific exchange rates, the euro fell 0.36% against the US dollar, and the safe-haven Swiss franc fell 0.77% against the US dollar. Trump has previously threatened to impose tariffs on a number of European countries, as well as the United Kingdom and Norway, to pressure them to agree to the U.S. purchase of Greenland. Although details of the framework of the new agreement have not been announced, its decision to cancel tariffs is regarded by the market as a signal that short-term risks have subsided. Some analysts pointed out that the market's rise was a "relief rebound" and paid attention to subsequent developments. The EU said it would hold an emergency summit on Thursdaymeeting to discuss relevant countermeasures.

In addition, the Japanese yen continues to be under pressure. USD/JPY rose as the yen came under selling pressure after Japan's prime minister announced an election and pledged to ease fiscal policy. Traders are closely watching volatility in the Japanese government bond market and whether the yen is approaching levels that could trigger intervention. Some analysts believe that further selling of Japanese government bonds may push USD/JPY to the sensitive area of ​​159/160.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 95%, and the probability of cutting interest rates in June is 61.7%.

According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by March is 17.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 0.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 38.3%, and the probabilities of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points, 50 basis points and 75 basis points are 45.9%, 14.2% and 1.6% respectively.

European www.xmtraders.commission: The emergency summit of EU leaders will be held as planned

A spokesman for the European www.xmtraders.commission said on the 21st that the emergency summit of EU leaders will be held as planned on the evening of the 22nd local time. It is said that although US President Trump has stated that he will not use force to seize Greenland and will not impose tariffs on some EU countries, the EU will continue to advance relevant meeting arrangements. An EU spokesperson said that contacts between the EU and the United States at all levels continue, and the EU will take all necessary measures to safeguard the EU's interests. In response to the U.S. tariff threat, member states are still conducting intensive consultations on possible response measures.

Trump: An agreement framework has been formed on the Greenland issue, but the tariffs will not take effect

U.S. President Trump said on social media that based on a very productive meeting between me and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, we have initially established a future agreement framework on Greenland and even the entire Arctic region. If the plan is finally reached, it will be a major benefit to the United States and all NATO members. Based on this understanding, I will not implement the tariffs that were originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. Further discussions are also ongoing regarding Greenland and the Golden Dome project. More information will be provided as negotiations progress. Vice President Vance, Secretary Rubio, Special Envoy Witkoff and others will be responsible for the negotiations - and they will report directly to me.

Trump says the framework agreement he reached with NATO to ease tensions in Greenland involves U.S. mineral rights

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the framework agreement he reached with NATO to ease tensions in Greenland involves U.S. and Greenlandic mineral rights. Trump said in an interview, "They will be involved in the development of Greenland's mineral resources, and we will be involved in it." When asked how long the agreement would last, Trump saidTrump replied: "Permanently."

The European Parliament announced that the review of the EU-US trade agreement will be frozen indefinitely

On the 21st local time, Lange, chairman of the International Trade www.xmtraders.committee of the European Parliament, announced that the review of the EU-US trade agreement will be frozen indefinitely. Lange said that the European Parliament’s negotiating team decided to suspend the European Parliament’s International Trade www.xmtraders.committee’s review of the EU-US trade agreement that day. Lange said that the EU's sovereignty and territorial integrity are currently facing threats, and relevant work cannot be carried out as usual under such circumstances.

Trump will increase domestic travel before the mid-term elections

In order to promote his economic agenda and reverse the poor evaluation given by American voters, US President Donald Trump plans to increase domestic travel arrangements before the mid-term elections in November. White House chief of staff Susie Wells told reporters on Air Force One on her way to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that Trump would travel "every week" and would further intensify his schedule as the midterm elections for control of Congress approach.

Mexico announced that it would continue to deliver oil to Cuba

On January 21, local time, Mexican President Sheinbaum announced that the country would continue to deliver oil to Cuba to ease the pressure caused by the U.S. economic blockade on Cuba. Sheinbaum said that the crude oil supply "comes from both contractual constraints and humanitarian considerations" and is a support for the Cuban people. She pointed out that the more than 60-year-old trade blockade imposed by the United States on Cuba has restricted the country's free import, export and economic development, and Mexico has always opposed such coercive measures.

Global cross-border tourists will increase by approximately 4% in 2025

The latest World Tourism Barometer report released by the United Nations Tourism Organization on the 20th shows that global cross-border tourists will increase by approximately 4% in 2025 www.xmtraders.compared with the previous year. The report said that global cross-border tourists will increase by nearly 60 million from the previous year in 2025, reaching 1.52 billion. At the same time, strong tourist consumption has led to continued growth in global tourism revenue. According to preliminary estimates, global cross-border tourism revenue will reach US$1.9 trillion in 2025, an increase of 5% from 2024. The report points out that the growth of cross-border tourists is driven by multiple factors, including strong global travel demand, good performance of major source markets, continued recovery of tourist destinations in the Asia-Pacific region, improved air connectivity, and increased visa facilitation measures. Sheikha Nasser Nuwais, Secretary-General of the United Nations Tourism Organization, emphasized that despite high inflation in the tourism service industry and uncertainty caused by geopolitical tensions, international tourism demand will remain strong throughout 2025, and this positive trend is expected to continue in 2026. The United Nations Tourism Organization predicts that international tourism will continue to grow in 2026, but high travel costs and geopolitical risks are still the main challenges that the international tourism industry may face this year.

Domestic News

The Ministry of Finance and other three departments: The price difference income obtained by individual investors from the transfer of CDRs of innovative enterprises is temporarily exempt from VAT

The Ministry of Finance and other departmentsThe three departments announced that the value-added tax will be temporarily exempted from the price difference income obtained by individual investors from the transfer of CDRs of innovative enterprises. The price difference income obtained by unit investors from the transfer of CDRs of innovative enterprises shall be exempted from value-added tax in accordance with the financial product transfer policy. From January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, value-added tax will be temporarily exempted from the value-added tax on the price difference income obtained by managers of public securities investment funds (closed-end securities investment funds, open-end securities investment funds) from the transfer of CDRs of innovative enterprises in the process of operating funds. Value-added tax is temporarily exempted from the price difference income obtained by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) and RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) entrusting domestic www.xmtraders.companies to transfer CDRs of innovative enterprises.

Ministry of www.xmtraders.commerce: The total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2025, and the advantages of the ultra-large-scale market continue to appear

2025 is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". www.xmtraders.commercial authorities at all levels will thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central www.xmtraders.committee and the State Council, vigorously promote special actions to boost consumption, thoroughly implement the trade-in of consumer goods, create a "Buy in China" brand, and continue to release consumption potential. The total retail sales of consumer goods was 50.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. Among them, retail sales of goods increased by 3.8%, and catering revenue increased by 3.2%. Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth and continued to play the role of the main engine of economic development. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached new levels of 40 trillion yuan, 45 trillion yuan, and 50 trillion yuan, providing strong support for promoting the continued economic recovery and better meeting the people's needs for a better life.

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