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How does Trump’s Greenland card tear apart the United States and Europe and activate Europe and Russia?
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If the sea loses the rolling of huge waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the wild dance of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its true course, it will lose its meaning.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: How does Trump's Greenland card tear apart the United States and Europe and activate Europe and Russia?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
XM Foreign Exchange APP News - At the beginning of 2026, global geopolitics staged a thrilling "three-party game." At a New Year's business reception in Halle on January 15, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz changed his previous tough stance toward Russia and publicly declared that "Russia is a European country" and expressed the hope that the EU and Russia, "the largest European neighbor", would restore a "balanced relationship" provided that "peace prevails and freedom is guaranteed." On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin met in the Kremlin with ambassadors from many countries, including Germany, France, and Italy, and expressed mildly that Russia was "ready at any time" to restore diplomacy with Europe to pre-war levels. At the same time, US President Trump used Greenland as a bargaining chip and announced on TruthSocial that he would impose 10% punitive tariffs on eight countries including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland from February 1. If there is no "complete and www.xmtraders.complete" agreement to purchase Greenland, it will rise to 25% from June 1. This is not an isolated rhetorical turn, but the butterfly effect caused by the "Greenland crisis". This article believes that the European-Russian détente is not "true love", but Europe (especially Germany)'s survival test and realist adjustment under the dual pressures and internal difficulties of the United States and Russia. Although this "drama" has performance elements, Germany's motives are deeper and more real, and may start a structural shift in "New Eastern Policy 2.0". 1. The Butterfly Effect: A Realist Test from Greenland to Berlin The center of this storm is Greenland. The Trump administration transformed what began as a political joke, "Buy Greenland," into a "hybrid war" in the geopolitics of 2026: not only does it emphasize national security needs, but it also threatens to use tariffs and may even adjust NATOpromises in exchange for control of territory. On January 17, Trump posted on TruthSocial: “If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will,” and accused Denmark of being unable to protect the island from Chinese and Russian influence. The remarks triggered a strong reaction in Europe: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called it a "blatant violation of sovereignty", and EU leader von der Leyen said that she would "firmly defend the sovereignty of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark." The eight-nation European Union issued a joint statement warning that Trump's tariffs would lead to a "dangerous downward spiral" and have sent a small military detachment to Greenland for the "Operation Arctic Endurance" exercise to show unity. For Denmark and the EU behind it, this is not only an issue of territorial sovereignty, but also a trampling on the last dignity of the European continent. Mertz's "divergent thinking" emerged in this context: He realized that if the United States was no longer a reliable protector and even became a predator, then Germany must restart its "New Eastern Policy." Mertz said that "Russia is a European country", essentially sending an extremely dangerous signal to Washington: "If the United States pushes too hard, Europe can look east for a safe space." These remarks took place in Halle, East Germany (where the AfD's support rate is high), but Mertz emphasized that "I am not saying this just because I am here (East Germany), I would say this anywhere in Germany," showing that this was not a temporary performance, but a real response to the energy crisis and economic pressure. POLITICO Europe pointed out that Mertz called Russia "our largest European neighbor" and called for a "balanced relationship" on the premise of a peace agreement, which can be seen as a signal of a "softening" of his stance on Russia. At the same time, he juxtaposed similar calls from Macron and Meloni as a collective European backlash against pressure from Trump. Some believe that Mertz joins Meloni and Macron in calling for the resumption of contact with Putin, emphasizing that this is Germany's pragmatic response to the energy crisis and industrial decline. 2. Putin’s olive branch: Thawing or differentiation? At the credential presentation ceremony on January 15, Putin received many ambassadors, including those from Germany, France, and Italy. His attitude and tone were the lowest in four years. "We hope that the situation will change over time and that our countries will return to normal, constructive dialogue," he stressed, reiterating his www.xmtraders.commitment to a multipolar world while criticizing NATO's eastward expansion for ignoring Russian security and interests. Analysts believe that Russia does not really want to embrace a Europe armed to the teeth, but uses this "contact" to divide the US-European alliance and relieve internal stagflation pressure (GDP growth in 2025 is only 1.8%). However, this olive branch www.xmtraders.comes with conditions: it must "respect national interests and legitimate security concerns," implying that the Ukrainian issue needs to be resolved on Russia's terms. 3. U.S. reaction: Trump’s tariff stick and “alliance with Russia to contain Europe” On the U.S. side, in response to European countries’ resistance and military deployment to Greenland’s sovereignty, the White House announced an additional 10%-25% punitive tariff on eight countries, saying that these countries “played a very dangerous game.” Washington's current strategy is "transactional diplomacy." in trumpIn the eyes, if Europe does not cooperate with the United States in its Arctic and China strategies, Europe will be a "worse ally than its www.xmtraders.competitor." The United States may be trying to reach a "cross-Europe" deal with Putin. This fear is the fundamental driving force that drove Mertz to take the lead in extending an olive branch to Putin - Europe does not want to become a menu on the table of major powers. On January 18, the permanent representatives of the 27 EU countries held an emergency meeting in Brussels to discuss countermeasures, including a potential 9.3 billion euros of retaliatory tariffs or the activation of "anti-coercion tools" to restrict the United States' access to the EU market. 4. Major shocks in the foreign exchange market: The geopolitical tensions between the U.S. dollar’s credit overdraft and the euro’s “life and death line” directly impacted the foreign exchange market. EUR/USD fluctuated around 1.16 on January 19 (last reported in the 1.1617-1.1625 range, last week's low of 1.1577 and high of 1.16915), reflecting the market's digestion of the negative effects of the trade war and risk aversion. US dollar: Risk aversion and long-term credit hedging The tariff war triggered a return of safe-haven funds to the United States, and the US dollar index surged higher in the short term (it exceeded 105 in early January 2025). As Europe, including Danish pension funds, begins to reduce its holdings of U.S. debt and reduce exposure to the U.S. dollar, the U.S. dollar's status as the world's only safe asset is being eroded. If EU-Russia trade restarts and attempts to settle in local currencies, the US dollar will face a systemic withdrawal. Open confrontation among allies will exacerbate credit overdrafts, and the US dollar may depreciate by 5-10% in 2026. Euro: Strategic revaluation after the pain. The euro is currently oscillating around 1.16, and the market is digesting the negative effects of the "trade war" (EU exports to the United States account for about 3% of GDP). If Mertz’s experiment can be exchanged for the return of cheap energy (
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