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Takaichi Sanae plans to dissolve the House of Representatives

Wonderful introduction:

Green life is full of hope, beautiful fantasy, hope for the future, and the longed-for ideal is the green of life. The road we are going to take tomorrow is lush green, just like the grass in the wilderness, releasing the vitality of life.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: Takaichi Sanae plans to dissolve the House of Representatives." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

The Japanese Constitution stipulates that the Prime Minister can hold an early election and re-elect 465 House of Representatives seats through popular elections supported by his own public support rate to support the subsequent implementation of policies.

If the House of Representatives is not re-elected, and if half of the House of Representatives agrees to pass a motion of no confidence in the cabinet, the Prime Minister will either dissolve the House of Representatives within 10 days, or the cabinet will resign collectively.

It is reported that the opposition party originally planned to file a no-confidence motion on January 23, but Takaichi Sanae chose to "take advantage of the situation" and disband early, which was a strategy to avoid a passive situation.

Decision-making implementation: from notification of intention to substantive advancement

Takaichi Sanae’s election plan has entered the practical stage: on January 13, she has informed the core members of the Liberal Democratic Party of her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives, and it is expected to be officially announced in the short term.

Procedural preparations are underway at the same time: the cabinet meeting has officially decided to convene a regular session of Congress on January 23, which has become a key time anchor for the announcement of the general election.

It is worth noting that at the high-level meeting of the Steering www.xmtraders.committee of the House of www.xmtraders.commons, the Liberal Democratic Party deliberately did not announce the schedule of the Prime Minister's policy speech - this agenda, which usually serves as the opening of Congress, was shelved, apparently to reserve flexibility for the dissolution of the House of Representatives.

Core motivation: breakout of seats with high support rate

Takaichi Sanae's risk of early election is essentially to use a short-term political window period to solve the dilemma of governing. The core logic focuses on three points:

Popularity bonus window period: Since taking office, his cabinet's approval rate has continued to remain high. Nikkei polls show that it has climbed to 75%, and some polls have reached 78.1%, setting a peak in Japan's prime minister's approval rate in recent years and becoming a key confidence to promote the election.

Seat security crisis: the current Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Reform AssociationThe ruling coalition formed only holds 233 of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives, and this slim majority was barely achieved by absorbing three non-party members. Losing just one seat will lose the majority advantage, and the room for error is almost zero.

Policy implementation demands: The expansionary economic policies pushed by the high market, the record-breaking 9.0353 trillion yen defense budget, and security policy adjustments all require the absolute control of Congress to advance.

The experience of her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, who lost the majority in both houses due to consecutive defeats in the 2024 House of Representatives election and the 2025 Senate election, and was eventually forced to resign has made her eager to consolidate her power base through general elections.

In addition, the diplomatic dilemma has also become an implicit push. If she can win public authorization through the general election, it will provide more solid support for her hard-line diplomatic line. Recently, she has carried out intensive diplomatic activities. She will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on Tuesday and will receive Italian Prime Minister Meloni on Friday. These are all interpreted as using the image of international cooperation to create a favorable environment for the election.

Process Deduction: Election Schedule and Process Details

If the House of Representatives is dissolved as scheduled on January 23, the election will proceed according to two plans: one is to issue an election announcement on January 27 and vote on February 8; the other is to issue an announcement on February 3 and vote on February 15. From a process perspective, after dissolution, the election cycle must be www.xmtraders.completed first, and then voting on the nomination of the prime minister and the formation of a new cabinet will be carried out based on the results. The entire process will occupy critical legislative time.

This timing makes this election a rare "February election" after the war. Historical data shows that Japan only held an election at a similar time point on February 18, 1990, led by then-Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu. The special node triggered great attention from the political circles and the market to the connection between political cycles and economic policies.

Election game: Opposition parties unite to fight against the ruling coalition

Facing the initiative of the ruling coalition, the opposition camp has launched a cooperative counterattack:

The main opposition party is the Cadet Party, which has a low support rate. It is urgently building a bridge of cooperation with the Komeito Party. Its prefectural branch has connected with Komeito members and the supporting force behind it - the Soka Gakkai, the largest lay Buddhist organization in Japan.

You must know that the Soka Gakkai has long provided key campaign mobilization support to the Liberal Democratic Party. This cross-camp cooperation may reshape the election pattern.

Coordinated program advancement: On January 12, Tetsuo Saito, leader of the Komeito Party, and Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Cadet Democratic Party, held closed-door talks and reached a consensus on "exploring a higher-dimensional collaboration mechanism."

Atsushi Azumi, secretary-general of the Cadet Democratic Party, made it clear that the two parties' "core propositions are highly consistent" and will create a centrist campaign platform to gather confrontational forces.

Currently, the Komeito Party has become the third largest opposition party in the House of www.xmtraders.commons, behind the Cadets and the National Democratic Party. If the three parties can form effective coordination, they will pose a direct challenge to the ruling coalition's seat advantage.

Risk concerns: budget stranded and trust crisis

Takaichi Sanae’s “election gamble” hides multiple risks and has aroused internal and external doubts:

The budget review was forced to be postponed: The fiscal year 2026 budget was finalized in December 2025, totaling 122.3 trillion yen, of which the defense budget hit a new high of 9.0353 trillion yen. It should have been submitted for review at the regular session of Congress in January.

However, an early election will result in the budget being unable to be passed before the end of this fiscal year at the end of March. The government may need to prepare a temporary budget to maintain operations, which will directly affect corporate investment planning, local financial allocations and the payment of people's livelihood subsidies.

Policy promises are contradictory: After Takaichi took office, he repeatedly emphasized that "responding to high prices will be a priority." However, the move to dissolve Congress was criticized by the opposition party as "putting party interests above public interests." The Asahi Shimbun even pointed out that he "violated personal promises," which may trigger a crisis of trust among voters in policy priorities.

Political uncertainty disturbs the market: Although the ruling coalition tried to use the general election to stabilize expectations, the House of Representatives Operations www.xmtraders.committee has adjourned the meeting to "verify the dissolution report", reflecting the undercurrent of the game between the government and the opposition. The market is worried that this uncertainty may disrupt the yen exchange rate and the Japanese government bond market in the short term, especially in the context that the efficiency of policy implementation directly affects the economic outlook.

Historical Mirror and Future Suspense

This general election can be called another test of Japan’s political ecology. The experience of former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who was forced to resign due to losing the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate is a constant reminder of the fragility of the seat advantage.

Even if Takaichi Sanae expands the number of seats in the House of Representatives through the general election, he will still have to face the dilemma of being a minority in the Senate. The current ruling coalition only holds 119 seats in the Senate (100 seats for the Liberal Democratic Party + 19 seats for the Restoration Party). The dilemma of "distorting Congress" may continue to restrict the advancement of medium- and long-term policies.

Will this rare February general election ultimately be a "coronation" for Gao Shi to consolidate power, or a "Waterloo" that will repeat the mistakes of his predecessor?

The result will not only reshape Japan's political landscape, but also directly affect the pace of implementation of the 122 trillion yen budget and the advancement of hawkish policies, becoming an important observation anchor for global financial markets in early 2026.

The Japanese yen, Japanese bonds and the Japanese stock market all responded positively. The market is betting that the high-market Sanae can take advantage of the momentum to increase the seats controlled by the Liberal Party in the House of Representatives and the Senate, so that its policies that favor loose stimulus can be better implemented. Japanese bonds and the Japanese yen have continued to rise recently. At the same time, the Nikkei 225 has also risen for two consecutive trading days, with an increase of more than 5%.

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