Market volatility intensifies, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on January 13

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.14%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.15%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.27%. Germany's DAX index fell by 0.10%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.05%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.54%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.07%.

2. Interpretation of market news

Market volatility has intensified, and CME has increased margin requirements for precious metals and other products

⑴ The risk management team of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Clearing House has approved an increase in the performance bond (i.e., trading margin) requirements for some futures products starting from the close of trading on January 13, 2026 (Tuesday). ⑵ This adjustment is based on a routine review of market volatility and is designed to ensure adequate collateral coverage. ⑶Affected products include precious metal futures contracts such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium. ⑷It is worth noting that CME’s current margin settings for gold, silver, platinum and palladium are based on fixed dollar amounts. ⑸ From the perspective of market impact, the exchange's increase in margin is a standard risk management measure to deal with the intensification of market price fluctuations. This will increase the cost of holding positions in related contracts and may prompt some leveraged traders to close their positions, thereby amplifying market fluctuations in the short term. ⑹ In the future, traders need to pay attention to whether other major exchanges follow up to adjust margins and whether market volatility shows signs of peaking. This will be the key to judging whether this adjustment will have a lasting impact.

Global interest rate map: U.S. short-term interest rates are “all over the place”, and Germany’s long-term earnings are “significantly depressed”

⑴ In terms of short-term interest rates, the U.S. 2-year Treasury bond yield ranks first among major developed economies at 3.551%, significantly higher than the core countries in the Eurozone. www.xmtraders.compared with Germany's 2.117% yield, the interest rate spread in the United States is as high as 143.5 basis points. ⑵ The yield closest to the U.S. bond yield is 3.681% in the United Kingdom, and the interest rate difference is only 13 basis points. Australia's short-term yield is also as high as 4.026%, forming another high-interest area. Japan’s 1.165% yield is at an absolute low, with the interest rate difference from the United States reaching -238.6 basis points. ⑶In the www.xmtraders.comparison of 10-year Treasury bond yields, the United States has become one of the major benchmarks with a yield of 4.197%, but it is still slightly lower than the UK's 4.406% and Australia's 4.701%. ⑷The yield on German 10-year government bonds is only 2.867%, which is significantly lower than the United States (interest spread -133.0 basis points), the United Kingdom (interest spread 153.9 basis points), etc., and is in a yield "low" among major economies. ⑸ There is a clear gradient within the Eurozone. The long-term yields of countries such as France (3.536%), Italy (3.495%), and Spain (3.257%) are all higher than those of Germany, reflecting different sovereign risk premiums. ⑹ From the perspective of market logic, huge interest rate differences are the basic driving force for global capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations. The relative strength of U.S. short-term interest rates has supported the dollar, while Germany's extremely low long-term yields have highlighted market expectations for its safe asset status and the European Central Bank's dovish stance. ⑺ Future changes in these interest rate spreads will closely revolve around inflation data, central bank policy paths and political risks in various countries. Any narrowing or widening trend will profoundly affect the structure of the foreign exchange and fixed income markets.

Institutions collectively sang bullish, with the gold target price pointing directly at the US$5,000 mark

⑴ www.xmtraders.commerzbank raised its forecast for gold prices on Tuesday, setting the target price at the end of 2026 at US$4,900 per ounce, mainly due to increased demand for safe havens. ⑵ Gold prices have hit a record high of $4,629.94 per ounce this week, with geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government’s threat to the chairman of the Federal Reserve jointly driving buying. ⑶Following this, Citigroup also raised its basic target price for gold in the next 0 to 3 months to US$5,000 per ounce on Monday. ⑷The recently updated gold price forecasts of many major financial institutions are generally optimistic, with target prices concentrated in the range of US$4,500 to US$5,000. ⑸Morgan Stanley predicts that the price of gold will reach US$4,500 in 2026; Citigroup raised its 0-3 month target to US$5,000; JPMorgan Chase predicts that the average price will reach US$5,055 in the fourth quarter of 2026; Goldman Sachs predicts that the gold price in December 2026 will be US$4,900. ⑹ Many institutions such as Société Générale and Bank of America have also given a target price of close to US$5,000 at the end of 2026, showing the market's strong consensus on gold's long-term strength. ⑺From the perspective of market logic, the collective upward revision of forecasts by institutions not only reflects the short-term hedging demand brought about by the current geopolitical and central bank independence crises, but also implies the overall outlook for the future.Betting on long-term structural factors such as a downward shift in global interest rates and concerns about the credit of the US dollar. ⑻ Whether the gold price can hit and stabilize the US$5,000 mark in the future will depend on the actual evolution of the above risk factors and the final trend of real interest rates.

Unprecedented alliance, global central bank governors form a united front to defend independence

⑴ After the Trump administration threatened to file criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the governors of many global central banks issued a rare joint statement on Tuesday, expressing their firm support for Powell and the Federal Reserve. ⑵The signatories of this joint statement include the presidents of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Riksbank, the Danish Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Korea, the Bank of Brazil and the Bank of France, as well as senior officials of the Bank for International Settlements. The Bank of Japan is not included. ⑶ The statement emphasized: "We are fully united with the Federal Reserve System and its Chairman Jerome H. Powell. The independence of the central bank is the cornerstone of our efforts to maintain price stability, financial stability and economic stability in the interests of the citizens we serve." ⑷ Sources close to the incident said that European Central Bank President Lagarde was the key driver of the joint response, while the General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements took on the specific work of coordinating the participation of the presidents of various countries. ⑸Central bank governors are concerned that political intervention in the Federal Reserve will erode market trust in its www.xmtraders.commitment to achieving its inflation target, leading to higher inflation and global financial market volatility. They are also concerned that politicized central banks may no longer provide dollar liquidity support to global financial institutions, thereby "weaponizing" a vital lifeline that stabilizes markets in times of stress. ⑹ There is news that some officials are already discussing possible contingency plans if the Fed's policy changes. Although central banks can pool their own dollar reserves, this is seen as a stop-gap measure that only works in individual stress events and is difficult to deal with a broad crisis. ⑺The statement finally pointed out that it is "vital" to maintain the independence of the central bank on the premise of fully respecting the rule of law and democratic accountability. ⑻ This incident marks the formation of an open alliance between the world's major monetary policy authorities to defend a www.xmtraders.common credibility framework. However, the unprecedented tension in the relationship between politics and central banks reflected behind it has become a new source of systemic risk in the global financial market.

High interest rates are used to attract funds, and the interest rate of Turkish long-term bond issuance is close to 30%

⑴The Turkish National Treasury www.xmtraders.completed the issuance of two batches of long-term government bonds on Tuesday. Among them, the net issuance of bonds due in January 2030 linked to the TLREF index was 29.3928 billion lire, and the average issuance price was 99.337 lire. ⑵ Another batch of fixed-rate bonds due in September 2035 were issued, with a bid yield as high as 29.09% and a net issuance amount of 6.7831 billion lire. ⑶ Before the official auction, the treasury pre-sold some quotas to primary dealers through non-competitive bidding, namely 23 billion lire of 2030 bonds and 8.5 billion lire of 2035 bonds, showing the basic demand of underwriters and institutional investors. ⑷From the perspective of market logic, the fixed interest rate as high as 29.09% fully reflects the market’sTürkiye's long-term inflation, currency depreciation and sovereign credit risks demand extremely high premiums. ⑸ Despite high interest rates, the successful issuance and non-competitive bidding indicate that in the domestic high-inflation environment, such high-yield local currency assets are still attractive to some domestic institutions, or there may be mandatory allocation needs. ⑹ In the future, we need to pay attention to Turkey’s inflation trends and the central bank’s monetary policy. Any signs of slowing inflation may create conditions for lower financing costs in the future, but its sovereign bonds will still maintain high-yield characteristics in the short term.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine dismissed Defense Minister Shmeygar

On the 13th local time, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (Parliament) voted at a plenary session to dismiss Defense Minister Shmeygar and passed a resolution on dismissing Fedorov as Minister of Digital Transformation. Fedorov will serve as Ukraine’s Defense Minister. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in his regular video speech on the 2nd that he decided to adjust the operating model of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and proposed that First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov serve as Minister of Defense, while the current Minister of Defense Shmeygar will be transferred to other positions.

Qatar said any escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran would have "catastrophic" consequences

On January 13, local time, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majid Ansari said that any escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran would have "catastrophic" consequences for regional security. He urged both sides to exercise restraint and resolve differences through diplomatic channels. Ansari said that diplomacy is the most effective way to resolve regional crises, and Qatar is working with regional neighbors and national partners to resolve differences between the United States and Iran and ease regional tensions.

Political shock waves swept across the market, with the yen plummeting and U.S. bond yields rising

(1) Financial markets experienced violent fluctuations as a result of the news that the Japanese Prime Minister was considering holding an early election. The yen fell sharply, while U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board. ⑵ Specifically, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield fluctuates in the range of 3.53% to 3.555%, the 10-year yield fluctuates in the range of 4.171% to 4.201%, and the 30-year yield fluctuates in the range of 4.821% to 4.855%. Key yield curve indicators such as the 2-year/10-year spread moved between 62.2 and 64.7 basis points. ⑶ Multiple large transactions have emerged in the market, involving 5-year, 10-year, ultra-long-term Treasury bond futures and 2-year Treasury bond futures, indicating that large institutions are actively adjusting their positions. ⑷Main news headlines overnight include: U.S. CPI data is expected to rebound from the distortion of the government shutdown; U.S. corporate bond issuance has been the busiest week since the epidemic; oil prices have surged due to geopolitical risks; top Republicans have condemned the Department of Justice’s investigation of the Federal Reserve Chairman; and the resumption of Japan’s “high market trading” has caused the yen to plummet and Japanese stocks to surge. ⑸ On Tuesday, the U.S. market focused on the CPI data released at 21:30 Beijing time. The market expected the monthly rate to be +0.3% and the annual rate to remain at 2.7%. ⑹ From the perspective of market logic, Japan’s political uncertainty has causedDue to expectations of yen selling and capital outflows, some funds may turn to U.S. Treasury bonds to seek a safe haven, but at the same time it pushes up U.S. bond yields. The market is facing a www.xmtraders.complex game under the double attack of inflation data and geopolitics. ⑺In the next few hours, U.S. CPI data and Japanese political news will jointly dominate the global currency and bond markets. Any unexpected results may trigger a chain reaction across asset classes.

The attack on the pipeline caused Kazakhstan’s oil production to plummet by 35% at the beginning of the year

⑴Kazakhstan’s oil and natural gas condensate production from January 1 to 12 dropped significantly by 35% from the average level in December last year. ⑵The main reason for the sharp decline in output is export restrictions. On November 29 last year, Ukrainian drones attacked the Black Sea terminal of the Caspian Sea Pipeline Consortium in Russia, which is responsible for about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. ⑶The attack caused serious damage to one of the three berths of the terminal, affecting the crude oil export capacity. ⑷ Specific production data show that Kazakhstan’s daily production plummeted from 1.87 million barrels in December to 1.21 million barrels in early January. ⑸ Among them, the output of the country's largest oil field, the Tengiz Oilfield, dominated by Chevron, dropped by more than half during this period, the output of the offshore Kashagan Field dropped by 60%, and the output of the Karachaganak Oilfield dropped by 40%. ⑹ After the attack, Kazakhstan has diverted some of its oil flows from the Black Sea terminal to other routes, including to Asia and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. ⑺From the perspective of market impact, as an important non-OPEC oil-producing country, Kazakhstan's short-term supply disruptions, coupled with geopolitical risks, have provided the international crude oil market with an additional tight supply premium. ⑻ In the future, we need to pay attention to the repair progress of the damaged terminal and whether the capacity of alternative transportation routes can be sustained. This will be the key to judging when Kazakhstan's oil supply can return to normal.

Inflation data is intertwined with political risks, and U.S. bond yields fluctuate within a narrow range

⑴ U.S. Treasury bond yields rose slightly during the European trading session, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield rising 0.8 basis points to 4.194%. The market’s core focus is on the U.S. December CPI data to be released at 21:30 Beijing time. ⑵ Economists generally predict that the annual CPI rate in December will be 2.7%, the same as in November. This data will provide key clues to determine the future monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve. ⑶In addition to macroeconomic data, investors continue to pay close attention to the progress of the investigation surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. ⑷ Institutional analysts pointed out that any market perception that the Fed's independence is being www.xmtraders.compromised could weaken investor confidence and put pressure on U.S. dollar-denominated assets in the short term. ⑸ From the perspective of market logic, the U.S. bond market is facing a tug-of-war between the interest rate revaluation pressure that inflation data may bring and the hedging demand caused by political uncertainty. The slight rise in yields reflects the cautious mood before the release of the data. ⑹ The focus in the next few hours will entirely be on whether the CPI data meets or exceeds expectations. Any surprises may trigger violent fluctuations in U.S. bond yields., and affect the pricing of major global assets.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1653, a decrease of 0.13%. Prices (EUR/USD) have risen in the latest trading session ahead of the New York session as current support settles at 1.1665 in an attempt to recover some of the previous losses and unload some clear oversold conditions on the relative strength indicator, while continuing to www.xmtraders.come under negative pressure as it trades below the EMA50, reinforcing the stability of the short-term bearish correction trajectory, especially when trading within the channel range.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3458, a decrease of 0.03%. Before the New York market opened, GBPUSD rose in the latest trading day and reached the current resistance of 1.3475, which was accompanied by negative pressure as the price tried to surpass the EMA50, declaring its full recovery on a near-term basis, with the main bullish trend prevailing on a short-term basis. On the other hand, we noticed that the relative strength indicator showed a negative signal after reaching overbought levels, which was exaggerated www.xmtraders.compared to the price action, which may hinder its expansion of gains in the www.xmtraders.coming period.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen, now trading at 4603.33, an increase of 0.13%. Pre-market in New York, gold (gold) prices are trading around last session's levels in an attempt to gain bullish momentum, which may help it recover and resume gains and hit new all-time highs in the near term. The main bullish trend is dominant in the short term, with it trading in line with the support trend line, with the relative strength indicator reaching exaggerated oversold levels www.xmtraders.compared to the price action, indicating the beginning of a positive divergence.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 86.900, an increase of 2.09%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices edged higher on the last trading day, with the relative strength indicator showing positive overlapping signals after unloading its overbought conditions, opening the way for more gains in the near term, with dynamic pressure represented by its exchange above the EMA50 continuing, trading along the major bullish trendline in the near term, supporting a bullish scenario.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, currently trading at 60.560, an increase of 1.78%. In the New York pre-market, (crude oil) prices rose during the last session at intraday levels, reaching the $60.00 resistance, which represented our expected target in the previous analysis, supported by a strong short-term bullish advantage, with the dynamic pressure represented by its exchange above the EMA50 continuing. On the other hand, we noticed that the relative strength indicator started to show negative overlapping signals after reaching overbought levels, which may reduce the upcoming gains.

4. Institutional perspective

JPMorgan Chase: U.S. Treasury bond client survey shows an increase in short positions

⑴ JPMorgan Chase’s U.S. Treasury client survey for the week ending January 12 showed that the short ratio increased by 4 percentage points, the long ratio increased by 3 percentage points, and the neutral ratio decreased by 7 percentage points. ⑵ The survey shows that the current proportion of net long positions has dropped to the lowest since October 2024, and the proportion of short positions is the highest since October 6 last year.

JPMorgan Chase: Investment banking revenue unexpectedly fell in the fourth quarter

⑴ JPMorgan Chase’s investment banking fee income unexpectedly fell in the fourth quarter, failing to meet the guidance given by the bank last month, and both underwriting and M&A advisory revenue fell. ⑵ The bank said in an announcement on Tuesday that investment banking revenue in the last three months of 2025 was US$2.35 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. ⑶ JPMorgan Chase said in December that it expected to achieve "low single-digit" percentage growth. ⑷ However, in a presentation accompanying the performance release, JPMorgan Chase estimated that net interest income in 2026 will be approximately US$103 billion, which is higher than analysts’ expectations. ⑸ JPMorgan Chase kicked off a new round of earnings season for the U.S. banking industry on Tuesday. ⑹ Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley are expected to announce results on Wednesday and Thursday. ⑺ Boosted by policy adjustments, the industry as a whole is expected to record the second-highest annual profit in history.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Market volatility intensifies, short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on January 13". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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