Geopolitical tensions + uncertainty about Powell’s investigation, gold prices hit a new record high, and oil prices climbed to a seven-week high

In early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday (January 13, Beijing time), spot gold was around US$4,584 per ounce. The price of gold hit a new all-time high of US$4,630.08 per ounce on Tuesday. The market was affected by the Trump administration’s decision on the Federal Reserve. Uncertainty caused by Chairman Powell's criminal investigation prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets; U.S. crude oil traded around $59.71 per barrel, and oil prices climbed to a seven-week high on Monday. As Trump puts pressure on Iran's leadership, the market is worried that Iran's oil exports may decline.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record closing highs. Gains in technology stocks and retailer Walmart led the market as investors largely digested the news that the U.S. Department of Justice would launch a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Walmart shares rose 3%, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher. The retailer will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on January 20 and is expected to attract significant inflows from passive index funds. The consumer staples sector rose 1.4%, while the technology sector also climbed in tandem.

It opened lower in early trading on news of Powell's investigation. The U.S. Department of Justice threatened to prosecute Powell over his policy statements to Congress on building renovation projects, sparking market concerns about the Fed's independence. Powell called the move an "excuse" to try to influence interest rates. U.S. President Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts since taking office in 2025.

Analysts pointed out that the market has digested the relevant news in advance, and the support of Powell by former Federal Reserve officials has eased concerns. Investors are focused on the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings season, which is expected toEarnings from the technology sector will lead growth, with overall S&P 500 earnings expected to grow 8.8% year-on-year. Earnings season begins on Tuesday with results from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Trump called for capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year starting from January 20, causing financial stocks to www.xmtraders.come under pressure. The S&P 500 financial index fell 0.8%, with shares of Citigroup, American Express and Capital One all falling.

Investors are also awaiting the U.S. Consumer Price Index report released on Tuesday to determine the prospects for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in at least two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year.

Gold Market

The price of gold exceeded US$4,600 an ounce on Monday, setting a record high, while the price of silver also set a new all-time high. Market uncertainty over the Trump administration's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has driven investors toward safe-haven assets.

Spot gold rose 2.2% to US$4,609.58 per ounce, hitting an intraday high of US$4,630.08. U.S. gold futures closed up 2.5% at $4,614.70 an ounce. Spot silver rose 6.8% to US$85.39 per ounce, hitting a record high of US$86.22 during the session.

Analysis pointed out that the investigation of Powell has exacerbated market uncertainty, and the factors supporting the rise of gold prices in the short term are difficult to change. In addition, market expectations that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates later this year have also increased demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Geopolitical tensions also provide support for gold prices. The Trump administration is considering a response to Iran's crackdown on protests, having previously ousted Venezuelan President Maduro and offered to acquire Greenland.

In terms of other precious metals, spot platinum rose 3% to US$2,342.10 per ounce; palladium rose 2.5% to US$1,861.44.

Oil Market

Oil prices climbed to a seven-week high on Monday, mainly due to concerns about a potential decline in Iranian oil exports. The country is facing internal protests, and U.S. President Donald Trump has said he may take steps including military action to pressure Iran's leadership. At the same time, geopolitical risks in Russia and Venezuela also bring volatility to oil prices.

Brent crude oil rose 1.94% to close at $64.2 a barrel, the highest since November 18 last year. U.S. crude oil rose 1.8% to close at $59.84 a barrel, a new high since December 5 last year.

While supply risks from Iran supported oil prices, gains were capped by Venezuela's expected resumption of oil exports after President Maduro stepped down. Trump said last week that Venezuela would transfer up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States, and oil www.xmtraders.companies are currently actively arranging tanker shipments.

In addition, the market is also paying attention to the risk of possible supply disruptions in Russia. Ukraine attacks target Russian energy facilities, and U.S. may impose tougher sanctionsCuts, these factors have exacerbated supply concerns. The Goldman Sachs report pointed out that geopolitical risks will continue to cause oil price fluctuations, but new supply may lead to market surplus this year, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

Forex Market

The U.S. dollar index fell on Monday, mainly affected by the U.S. Department of Justice's threat to file criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The move sparked concerns about the Fed's independence and the dollar's long-term outlook, interrupting the dollar's New Year's rally.

Powell called the Justice Department subpoena an "excuse" for the White House to try to influence interest rate policy. The White House denied that Trump directed the investigation of Powell. Powell's term ends in May and Trump is considering a replacement, expected to choose a more dovish chairman.

In terms of geopolitics, Iran said it keeps channels of www.xmtraders.communication open with the United States, while the Trump administration is considering a response to Iran's crackdown on protests.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.37% to 98.87. The euro rose 0.29% against the US dollar, the Swiss franc performed strongly, and the US dollar fell 0.54% against the Swiss franc. The dollar rose 0.15% against the yen to 158.12 yen, hitting a one-year high, mainly affected by factors such as falling real wages in Japan.

The next focus of the market is the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for December to be released on Tuesday. In addition, the U.S. Supreme Court is about to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariff policies, which may also affect the trend of the dollar. In early Asian trading on Tuesday (January 13, Beijing time), spot gold was around US$4,584 per ounce. The price of gold hit a new all-time high of US$4,630.08 per ounce on Tuesday. Uncertainty in the market due to the Trump administration's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets. US crude oil was trading around US$59.71 per barrel. Oil prices climbed to a seven-week high on Monday. As Trump puts pressure on Iran's leadership, the market is concerned that Iran's oil exports may decline.

Focus on the day

The stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record closing highs. Gains in technology stocks and retailer Walmart led the market as investors largely digested the news that the U.S. Department of Justice would launch a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Walmart shares rose 3%, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher. The retailer will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on January 20 and is expected to attract significant inflows from passive index funds. The consumer staples sector rose 1.4%, while the technology sector also climbed in tandem.

It opened lower in early trading on news of Powell's investigation. The U.S. Department of Justice threatened to prosecute Powell over his policy statements to Congress on building renovation projects, sparking market concerns about the Fed's independence. Powell called the move an "excuse" to try to influence interest rates. U.S. President Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts since taking office in 2025.

Analysts pointed out that the market has digested the relevant news in advance, and former Fed officials’ support for PowellAllayed concerns. Investors are paying attention to the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings season. The technology sector's earnings are expected to lead growth, and the S&P 500's overall earnings are expected to increase by 8.8% year-on-year. Earnings season begins on Tuesday with results from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Trump called for capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year starting from January 20, causing financial stocks to www.xmtraders.come under pressure. The S&P 500 financial index fell 0.8%, with shares of Citigroup, American Express and Capital One all falling.

Investors are also awaiting the U.S. Consumer Price Index report released on Tuesday to determine the prospects for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in at least two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year.

Gold Market

The price of gold exceeded US$4,600 an ounce on Monday, setting a record high, while the price of silver also set a new all-time high. Market uncertainty over the Trump administration's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has driven investors toward safe-haven assets.

Spot gold rose 2.2% to US$4,609.58 per ounce, hitting an intraday high of US$4,630.08. U.S. gold futures closed up 2.5% at $4,614.70 an ounce. Spot silver rose 6.8% to US$85.39 per ounce, hitting a record high of US$86.22 during the session.

Analysis pointed out that the investigation of Powell has exacerbated market uncertainty, and the factors supporting the rise of gold prices in the short term are difficult to change. In addition, market expectations that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates later this year have also increased demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Geopolitical tensions also provide support for gold prices. The Trump administration is considering a response to Iran's crackdown on protests, having previously ousted Venezuelan President Maduro and offered to acquire Greenland.

In terms of other precious metals, spot platinum rose 3% to US$2,342.10 per ounce; palladium rose 2.5% to US$1,861.44.

Oil Market

Oil prices climbed to a seven-week high on Monday, mainly due to concerns about a potential decline in Iranian oil exports. The country is facing internal protests, and U.S. President Donald Trump has said he may take steps including military action to pressure Iran's leadership. At the same time, geopolitical risks in Russia and Venezuela also bring volatility to oil prices.

Brent crude oil rose 1.94% to close at $64.2 a barrel, the highest since November 18 last year. U.S. crude oil rose 1.8% to close at $59.84 a barrel, a new high since December 5 last year.

While supply risks from Iran supported oil prices, gains were capped by Venezuela's expected resumption of oil exports after President Maduro stepped down. Trump said last week that Venezuela would transfer up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States, and oil www.xmtraders.companies are currently actively arranging tanker shipments.

In addition, the market is also paying attention to the risk of possible supply disruptions in Russia.Attacks in Ukraine targeting Russian energy facilities and the prospect of tougher U.S. sanctions have heightened supply concerns. The Goldman Sachs report pointed out that geopolitical risks will continue to cause oil price fluctuations, but new supply may lead to market surplus this year, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

Forex Market

The U.S. dollar index fell on Monday, mainly affected by the U.S. Department of Justice's threat to file criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The move sparked concerns about the Fed's independence and the dollar's long-term outlook, interrupting the dollar's New Year's rally.

Powell called the Justice Department subpoena an "excuse" for the White House to try to influence interest rate policy. The White House denied that Trump directed the investigation of Powell. Powell's term ends in May and Trump is considering a replacement, expected to choose a more dovish chairman.

In terms of geopolitics, Iran said it keeps channels of www.xmtraders.communication open with the United States, while the Trump administration is considering a response to Iran's crackdown on protests.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.37% to 98.87. The euro rose 0.29% against the US dollar, the Swiss franc performed strongly, and the US dollar fell 0.54% against the Swiss franc. The dollar rose 0.15% against the yen to 158.12 yen, hitting a one-year high, mainly affected by factors such as falling real wages in Japan.

The next focus of the market is the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for December to be released on Tuesday. In addition, the U.S. Supreme Court is about to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariff policies, which may also affect the trend of the dollar.

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