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The logic of gold’s 20-year bullishness is re-verified. What’s the future of the market?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Gold's 20-year bullish logic is re-verified, how will the market outlook go?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Brothers, the gold market was www.xmtraders.completely on fire yesterday, January 12 (Monday)! Spot gold soared to $4,630 in one fell swoop, strongly breaking through the previous high of $4,550. The daily line showed a domineering three consecutive positives. The bulls directly stepped on the early resistance level into a solid support, and the momentum was full! The current price of gold is fluctuating around US$4,600. Don’t panic. This is by no means a weakening of the trend. It is just a normal accumulation of energy after a breakthrough to digest short-term profits. After all, it rose from 4509 to 4630 in one breath, reaching a high of US$121. Only by washing the floating chips can we go further.
Remember the two key price levels and you will feel confident. The lower $4,550 is a strong support. As long as this position is held, the bulls’ rising rhythm will not be broken. The upper $4,630 is an immediate resistance. Once it is effectively broken through, the gold price will most likely hit the $5,000 mark. From the perspective of the general trend, this wave of strong breakthroughs is just an acceleration of the gold bull market, and the foundation of the bull market has never been shaken.

In fact, as early as 2019, we proposed that gold would start a 20-year long bull market. At that time, there were constant market controversies. Now at the beginning of 2026, the gold price has exceeded the historical mark of 4,600 US dollars, and the domestic gold price has simultaneously reached a high of 1,036 yuan. In 2025, the annual increase exceeded 60%, setting the best performance in the past 46 years. The resilience and explosive power of this bull market have once again confirmed the certainty of the long-term trend.
Looking back at the seven-year bull market, gold prices did not rise unilaterally. During this period, they also experienced technical corrections and emotional fluctuations.Movement, but every adjustment becomes an opportunity for funds to add positions. The core reason is that the underlying logic supporting the bull market has never changed and will become increasingly clear in 2026. The essence of this 20-year bullish cycle is the triple resonance of global monetary and credit restructuring, geopolitical order reshaping, and asset allocation shifts. Short-term market fluctuations are just episodes in the long-term trend.
The gold market in 2026 is standing at a critical node in the middle of the long bull cycle. The three core forces continue to build a solid foundation for the rise, which determines that the bull market will not end easily.
First, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle and the fading credit of the US dollar have created a double benefit. The market is generally betting on two interest rate cuts in 2026. The dovish policy reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, while the US government debt of US$38 trillion is high and the proportion of US dollar reserves remains unchanged. The continued decline has accelerated the revaluation of gold as a "non-sovereign credit currency". This trend will last at least for the next ten years;
Secondly, central bank gold purchases form a rigid support. The proportion of global central bank gold reserves is currently only 22%, which is far lower than that at the end of the Cold War. 29% www.xmtraders.compared with 58% during the stagflation period in 1980. There is still a potential demand for gold purchase of 3,300 tons. 76% of the central banks surveyed plan to continue to increase their holdings in the next five years. China has increased its holdings for 14 consecutive months. "The more it goes up, the more it buys" has become an important bottom line for the correction of gold prices;
< p>Third, the demand for asset allocation has exploded across the board. In the post-epidemic era, the correlation between stocks and bonds has risen to a 30-year high. Traditional investment portfolio hedging has failed. The diversified risk value of gold has become prominent. ETF funds have returned and non-institutional investors have accelerated their entry. The allocation space is still broad.Coupled with the geopolitical black swan at the beginning of 2026, the US military’s military operation in Venezuela, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the tense situation in the Middle East. The normalization of geopolitical risks has continued to realize the safe-haven properties of gold. Short-term safe-haven funds have pushed up the price of gold. In the medium and long term, countries have realized the importance of "unrivaled risk assets" and further strengthened the status of gold reserves. This www.xmtraders.combination of "structural support + short-term catalysis" will allow gold to present a pattern of "high fluctuations and upward fluctuations" in 2026, and will also make the long bull path clearer in 2020.

As for the price prediction that everyone is most concerned about, we maintain our previous judgment and provide additional updates. Under a high probability scenario, the price of gold will fluctuate higher in the range of US$4,000-6,000 in 2026, and is expected to hit US$5,000 in the first quarter; in extreme scenarios such as a deep global economic recession and escalating geopolitical conflicts, it may reach US$5,400. Extending to the end of the bull market in 2039, if the core logic remains unchanged, the trend will not change. There is a high probability that the gold price will exceed US$12,000, and in extreme scenarios it may hit US$18,000. There are only two possibilities for signaling the end of the bull market: AI technology will www.xmtraders.comprehensively improve global productivity and reshape the credit of the US dollar, or the world will form a new stable currency system. The probability of these two situations occurring before 2039 is extremely low.
Many investors are wondering whether the price of gold can keep up with this trend since it has reached a record high.Is it a bull in a wheel? In fact, there is no need to worry about short-term points. The core of the 20-year long bull is that "trends are greater than fluctuations." In the bull market of the 1970s, when gold rose 24 times, there were also sharp retracements. Only long-term holding can capture the maximum return. For ordinary investors, allocation in batches, long-term holdings, and avoiding short-term speculation are the best strategies to grasp this bullish cycle.
The new high in 2026 is only a milestone in this bullish cycle, not the end. As the old era of anchored currency and credit and stable geopolitical order fades away, gold, as a hard currency that has spanned thousands of years, has just reached the midpoint of its 20-year revaluation journey.
Do you think it will break the level directly after the shock of $4,600, or will it pull back first to accumulate strength? Tell us what you think in the www.xmtraders.comment section! Collect the article and give yourself confidence.
Please note that article updates are timely and the market is changing rapidly. Please pay attention to more timely market changes.
Disclaimer: The above is purely personal opinion sharing and does not constitute operational advice. Investments are risky and you are responsible for your profits and losses.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Gold's 20-year long bull logic is re-verified, how will the market outlook go?". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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