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Japanese bond yields "went wild" to a 27-year high, and U.S. bonds were "dragged down"?

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: Japanese bond yields "run wildly" to a 27-year high, are U.S. bonds being "dragged down"?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Tuesday (January 6), the trends in the world's major bond markets and currency pairs showed a delicate and tense balance. Markets are in typical wait-and-see mode ahead of key macro data releases, but differences in dynamics across markets reveal underlying driving forces. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly by 0.13% during the day to 98.4485. Its trend is closely linked to the fluctuations in U.S. bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.14% on the day to 4.170%, fluctuating within the recent high range. At the same time, the 10-year Japanese bond yield rose sharply by 1.23% to 2.136%, hitting a 27-year high. This abnormal trend had a direct impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate, which is currently trading around 156.427. The core logic of the market has shifted from the game of a single monetary policy to an in-depth examination of the fiscal endurance of major economies and global capital flows. The transmission of risk aversion triggered by fluctuations in the bond market has become a key short-term clue.

U.S. bonds and Japanese bonds: the game and transmission behind the rise in yields

The current market fundamentals are dominated by two core narratives: the range stalemate in U.S. bonds and the historic breakthrough in Japanese bonds. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that U.S. Treasuries were in a "tug of war" during overnight trading on Tuesday. On the one hand, Japanese bond yields hit multi-year highs, exerting an upward pull on global bond yields; on the other hand, German inflation data showed that price pressures have slowed, boosting demand for German bonds and exerting some downward pressure on U.S. bond yields. This intertwining of long and short forces has limited the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a narrow range of 4.17%-4.19%, and overall it is still in the recent high range (4.08%-4.20%). The market generally believes that this range may be difficult to effectively break before the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday.

The dynamics of Japanese bonds are even more iconic. Its 10-year yield topped 2.134% and hit a 27-year high, following a Treasury auction that saw weak demand. The auction's bid coverage dropped sharply from 3.59 to 3.30, indicating a lack of buyer power in the market. Some people interpret this as the beginning of a major "confrontation" between the market and the Japanese authorities in 2026. The head of global markets business at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) has warned that if the Bank of Japan cannot effectively anchor expectations for further interest rate hikes in the future and the government increases spending to appease voters dissatisfied with inflation, the yen may weaken further, which may in turn accelerate import costs again, forming a "negative spiral" of inflation and currency depreciation. He further pointed out that once yields exceed 2%, the agency plans to accelerate the reconstruction of 10-year bonds based on rising interest rates. This logic means that in order to maintain the yield curve control (YCC) policy or cope with rising domestic financing costs, Japan may be forced to reduce its huge holdings of overseas assets (such as U.S. debt and MBS). This will pose potential long-term selling pressure on the global bond market, especially U.S. debt, and affect U.S. dollar liquidity through safe-haven channels.

From a technical perspective, each key asset is at a short-term direction decision point.

The U.S. dollar index (reference contract: DXY): The 4-hour chart shows that the price is oscillating around the middle track of the Bollinger Bands (98.4018). The upper resistance is focused on the upper track 98.7245, and the lower support first looks at the lower track 98.0785. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF line and the DEA line are converging above the zero axis, but DIFF (0.0458) is slightly lower than DEA (0.0696), indicating that the short-term upward momentum has weakened, and there is a risk of high consolidation or callback. In the next 2-3 days, the 98.70-98.85 area will become a key resistance zone. If it cannot break through, the index may retreat to the 98.10-97.90 area to find support.

10-year U.S. Treasury yield (reference contract: US10Y): The 4-hour Bollinger Bands channel is narrowing. The current yield is running close to the mid-track (4.172), with upper resistance at 4.211 and lower support at 4.132. MACD's DIFF and DEA are both located in a very narrow area above the zero axis, showing that the long and short kinetic energy is not significant. The tactics of well-known institutions prefer to short 10-year U.S. bonds around 4.11%, and seek to increase positions when they are strong. The expected short-term fluctuation range is 4.18%-4.14%. During the session, we need to pay close attention to whether the yield can stand above 4.18%. If it breaks through 4.21%, it may open up room for upside. On the contrary, falling below 4.13% may trigger a test towards 4.08%.

USD/JPY (reference contract: USD/JPY): The exchange rate is currently below the 4-hour Bollinger Bands middle track (156.712) and close to the lower track (156.221), indicating short-term pressure. The DIFF value in the MACD indicator is negative (-0.008) and is below the DEA line (0.063), indicating that downward pressure is building. The strong resistance area above the exchange rate is 157.00-157.20 (near the upper Bollinger Band). If the surge in Japanese bond yields triggers rising expectations of official Japanese intervention or the return of safe haven funds to the yen, the exchange rate may test the support strength of 155.80-156.00.

10-year Japanese bond yield (reference contract: JP10Y): The technical trend is extremely strong, the price has touched the upper Bollinger Band (2.140), and MACD continues to rise. This clearly reflects the fundamental logic that the market is testing the tolerance of the Bank of Japan. 2.14%-2.15% is the absolute high resistance zone in the past thirty years. Any further breakthrough will strengthen the risk aversion sentiment in the global bond market.

Looking forward to the next 2-3 days, the market trend will depend on the resonance point between fundamentals and technical aspects.

The primary driving force is still the transmission of the risk aversion effect of the bond market. If the "independent trend" in Japanese bond yields continues, it will affect the U.S. dollar through two channels: first, through the narrowing of the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan (Japanese bond yields will rise even more), which theoretically puts pressure on the U.S. dollar against the yen; second, a more important channel - Japanese financial institutions may adjust their trillion-dollar overseas asset portfolios due to rising domestic interest rates. This will trigger a chain reaction in the global bond market and stimulate risk aversion. It may initially boost the U.S. dollar's safe-haven properties, but if it triggers a sell-off in U.S. bonds, it may form a www.xmtraders.complicated situation.

Secondly, domestic data and www.xmtraders.comments in the United States will provide disruption. The final S&P Global Services PMI for December will be released later on Tuesday. The preliminary PMI value showed that the service industry activity index fell to the lowest since June, but input and output price pressures rose to the highest since 2022. If this www.xmtraders.combination of "slowing growth + sticky inflation" is confirmed, it may intensify market confusion about the Fed's policy path. In addition, recent news about substantial increases in the minimum wage in many states in the United States has also triggered concerns among some market participants about wage-driven inflation in 2026, which may potentially limit the Fed's easing space.

Taken together, the market is likely to maintain a high-volatility range-bound pattern in the next few days until clearer macro signals emerge. U.S. bond yields face a direction choice within the core range of 4.20%-4.08%, and its trend will directly determine the strength of the U.S. dollar index. The upside of the U.S. dollar index is limited by technical resistance above 98.70 and potential selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries, while the downside is buffered by safe-haven demand. During the session, we need to pay close attention to: 1) whether Japanese bond yields rise further and trigger official verbal intervention; 2) the performance of the price www.xmtraders.component in the final value of the US service industry PMI; 3) any discussion on the fiscal sustainability of major economies. The market is on the eve of a shift from being driven by liquidity to being driven by credit risk premiums. Every move in the bond market will spill over to the exchange rate market, shaping the short-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar.

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Japanese bond yields "went wild" to a 27-year high, and U.S. bonds were "dragged down"?

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