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The U.S. dollar index hovers near 98.5, OPEC agrees to continue suspending production increases
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The U.S. dollar index hovers around 98.5, OPEC agrees to continue to suspend production increases". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On January 5, in early trading in Asia on Friday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.58. Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index rebounded in a V-shape intraday, maintaining its high in the past two weeks, and finally closed up 0.149% at 98.43; U.S. bond yields generally rose, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closing at 4.195%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.488%. Precious metals investors are remaining cautious as the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg www.xmtraders.commodity Index could trigger concentrated selling by passive funds. Spot gold rose first and then fell. It once regained the $4,400 mark before the U.S. market opened, but then turned sharply downward, giving up most of the day's gains, and finally closed up 0.36% at $4,330.5 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 1.92% at $72.66 per ounce. International crude oil fluctuated low as traders weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks. WTI crude oil fell more than 1% during the session, and finally closed down 0.21%, at US$57.21/barrel, but barely recorded two consecutive weekly gains; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.07%, at US$60.73/barrel.
Analysis of major currency trends
U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.58. The market is set to receive a slew of data this week, including the non-farm payrolls report. At present, traders have fully digested the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, while the Federal Reserve internally predicts only one interest rate cut, and there are differences between the two sides. Technically, after rebounding from the low of 97.75, the block has been consolidating in the 98.25–98.35 range, which is also 38.2%Fibonacci retracement levels. This block provides some support in the short term.



Gold and crude oil market trend analysis
1) Gold market trend analysis
In the Asian market on Friday, gold hovered around 4391.12. Gold breaks through $4,390 per ounce. The rise stemmed from escalating geopolitical risks triggered by the surprise U.S. arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Traders are paying close attention to the subsequent development of the incident, while focusing on the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI data released later in the day.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis
On Friday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 57.66. OPEC+ members have reached an agreement to maintain the suspension of crude oil production increases in the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, the market situation in Venezuela further develops. The geopolitical situation continues to be tense. Although the United States hosted peace talks, Russia and Ukraine continued to accuse each other of attacking civilians on New Year's Day, and Ukraine continued to attack Russian energy facilities. In addition, the Trump administration on Saturday launched a unilateral military attack on Venezuela and captured the country's President Maduro, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. Last week, the Trump administration also increased pressure on Iran. At the same time, the market focused on the OPEC+ meeting. On Sunday, sources said that the eight OPEC+ members had reached an agreement in principle to maintain the suspension of crude oil production increases in the first quarter of 2026. Analysts believe that 2026 will be a critical year for assessing OPEC+'s ability to balance market supply, and the expectation that major Asian countries will replenish strategic crude oil inventories in the first half of the year may provide some support for oil prices.
Technical aspect: Oil prices remain within the core shock range of 56.94-58.60. The upper edge of this range (near $58.60) and the integer mark of $59.00 together form the key resistance area in the near future; while the lower edge of $56.94 is the key level for bears to test recent low support. If it falls below, it may further test the psychological mark of $56.00. It is necessary to pay close attention to the price's test of the above-mentioned upper and lower Bollinger Bands. If it can break through with heavy volume and stand above the middle track of $57.77, it is expected to challenge the upper track of $58.60 in the short term. On the other hand, if it effectively falls below the $56.94 support, room for adjustment may be opened. In addition, changes in intraday trading volume will verify the effectiveness of the breakthrough.
Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on January 5, 2025
①09:45 China's December RatingDog service industry PMI
②15:30 Switzerland's November actual retail sales annual rate
③17:30 Eurozone January Sen tix Investor Confidence Index
④17:30 UK Central Bank Mortgage Permit in November
⑤23:00 US December ISM Manufacturing PMI
⑥23:00 United Nations Security Council holds emergency meeting
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