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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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CATEGORIES
News
- Powell faces a key decision, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver,
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- Gold breaks down on 10.28, today’s dividing line is 4020
- A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market
- A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market
market analysis
Oil prices appear to be weak, but these three major areas are quietly making fortunes
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: Oil prices seem to be weak, and these three major areas are making a fortune". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (January 2) during the European session, the February U.S. crude oil futures contract went out of a upward and downward trend, with the highest price touching the 30-day line that turned downwards and then continued to bottom out.
In 2026, the global oil market will officially enter a clear oversupply cycle, and the loose supply and demand pattern has become a foregone conclusion. This trend will dominate the price center and trading logic throughout the year.
The latest monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in December clearly stated that the global oil supply surplus may reach 3.84 million barrels per day in 2026, further solidifying the loose tone.
Although most institutional analysts judge that this excess is a short-term phased phenomenon, and the market is expected to gradually enter the supply and demand rebalancing channel from the second half of 2026 to 2027, the evolution of the supply and demand gap will still be the core trading thread in the energy field in 2026.
In the short term, there will still be more profits and more disturbances will bring trading opportunities
Specifically, the short-term driving factors are concentrated in three aspects:
First, geopolitical risks continue to ferment, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again. The two sides have engaged in distant confrontations and shirk responsibility for the attacks on civilians during New Year's Day, even though the Trump administration has taken the lead in organizing multiple rounds of intensive negotiations. , aiming to promote the end of this conflict that has lasted for nearly four years, but this incident has caused short-term setbacks in expectations for the easing of geopolitical conflicts; more importantly, in recent months, Ukraine has continued to intensify its precise attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. The core strategic intention is directly aimed at Russia's military capital supply chain, trying to weaken Russia's www.xmtraders.combat capabilities from the economic level, and directly affecting the stability of Russia's energy exports.
Second, the United States has restricted and tightened supply channels. The U.S. Treasury Department officially announced a list of cruise ship restrictions on Wednesday, involving four ships belonging to the "shadow"The oil tankers of the "Fleet" specifically include the Panama-registered "North Star", the Guinea-registered "Moon Tide" and the Hong Kong-registered "Dela". The reason for the restriction is that the above-mentioned ships have continued to transport Venezuelan crude oil and refined oil to Asia and the Caribbean this year, helping the Maduro government break through the blockade. This restriction directly cuts off the passage of restricted oil tankers in and out of Venezuela, forcing Venezuela's National Petroleum Corporation to The www.xmtraders.company (PDVSA) launched an emergency emergency plan to avoid a www.xmtraders.complete shutdown of refineries caused by the backlog of residual fuel inventories.
Thirdly, inventory data exceeded expectations. Data disclosed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil www.xmtraders.commercial inventories dropped significantly by 1.934 million barrels last week, not only the largest weekly decline since mid-November, but also a far greater decline. Exceeding the market's previous expectations of 900,000 barrels, the pace of inventory depletion further boosted bull sentiment.
Oil prices are sluggish but the www.xmtraders.company is booming: Refining, shale oil, and natural gas highlight dividends
In the context of oversupply, there are not all opportunities. Structural dividends are concentrated in three major areas: First, the profitability resilience of the refining segment is highlighted, and the refinery's high operating rate and The tight balance in the refined oil market resonates and will continue to support the strengthening of diesel and gasoline profit margins. The profitability elasticity of the European and American markets is particularly prominent. Rystad Energy data shows that the diesel cracking price difference in Europe and the United States is expected to remain in a very high range in 2026 and will last throughout most of the year. With the dynamic adjustment of global refined oil trade flows, diesel profit margins in Asia and the Middle East will also benefit simultaneously. ;
Second, U.S. shale oil production has shown strong resilience. It has become an industry consensus to maintain the current output scale near the WTI crude oil mark of US$60/barrel. The Permian Basin serves as the core hub. In 2026, the www.xmtraders.combined output of the Wolfcamp Formation and Bone Spring Formation in the Delaware Basin and the Wolfcamp Formation and Sprayberry Formation in the Midland Basin will exceed the total U.S. onshore oil production for the first time. 50% of the total volume has become supply-side ballast;
Thirdly, the natural gas field has become a hot spot for mergers and acquisitions. Affected by the surge in power demand driven by the expansion of LNG exports and the rise of the artificial intelligence industry, the demand for natural gas consumption in the power generation field will usher in explosive growth. The US M&A market will tilt towards natural gas-led projects, and international capital is accelerating its layout, with the intention of taking into account demand dividend capture, LNG export physical hedging and trade negotiations help triple goals
Institutional outlook: The supply side dominates the price trend, and an oversold rebound has the basis for expectations
Goldman Sachs clearly stated in the "2026 www.xmtraders.commodity Outlook" that "Although 2026 will be the end of the oil supply wave, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply growth cycle will be significantly lengthened. 2 Export volume is expected to surge by more than 50% from 2025 to 2030, becoming a new growth engine for the energy market." Its www.xmtraders.commodity research team further warned, "Although the baseline is expected to be oversupply of oil, the risk of supply disruptions in Russia, Venezuela, and Iran still needs to be closely tracked, especially in the context of the continued contraction of OPEC+ surplus production capacity, the transmission effect of geopolitical shocks may be amplified”.
Goldman Sachs’ core view is that the incremental release of supply in the next few years will become the core contradiction that dominates oil and gas price trends, and the rebalancing process of supply and demand will directly determine the central price level. Unless there is a large-scale supply interruption or OPEC takes the lead in implementing substantial production cuts, the market will need to decline through oil prices after 2026. To www.xmtraders.complete the rebalancing of supply and demand, destocking at low prices may become an inevitable path.
Yalande Rystad, founder and CEO of Rystad Energy, added that "upstream energy supply will be abundant in 2026, but potential bottlenecks in downstream refining, transportation and other links may cause regional and phased supply and demand mismatches." Although Ying Inspur has suppressed the primary energy price center, the price decline in 2026 is positively correlated with the rebound in 2027-2028, and the market has the basis for an "oversold rebound".
Wood Mackenzie gave a differentiated prediction: Since the epidemic, oil production in the 48 states in the United States will begin in 2026. has stalled, and growth momentum has been insufficient for a period, but the production stability of the Permian Basin will still provide key support for U.S. supply.
Strategic choice of large oil www.xmtraders.companies: Prioritize cash flow, shift to upstream and natural gas layout
Faced with the dual pressures of downward oil prices and oversupply in 2026, large oil www.xmtraders.companies Petroleum www.xmtraders.companies, national oil www.xmtraders.companies (NOCs), and U.S. and international independent oil and gas www.xmtraders.companies will face more severe strategic balance challenges than in 2025, and industry differentiation will further intensify.
From the perspective of strategic adjustments, www.xmtraders.companies have launched response plans for the low-price environment in 2026, but they are not optimistic about the medium- and long-term market prospects. Still optimistic, the core logic lies in the strategic shift in capital allocation: returning from the renewable energy field to upstream oil and gas exploration and development, and increasing investment in exploration in frontier areas, hoping for breakthroughs in major oil and gas discoveries to establish future www.xmtraders.competitive advantages.
At the same time, it has become a consensus to accelerate the layout of mergers and acquisitions in the natural gas field, and U.S. natural gas assets have. It is expected to become a hot spot for mergers and acquisitions in the global oil and gas industry in 2026, and capital concentration will further increase.
In terms of operational strategies, Wood Mackenzie predicts that www.xmtraders.companies will use "stable cash flow" as the core principle to deal with the oversupply situation, and stock repurchase plans may become the first reduction item, giving priority to ensuring the capital needs of core businesses. .
The analyst team concluded: “The decline in oil prices will force the industry to initiate deeper structural cost reductions and shrink the scale of buybacks. However, at the same time, the pressure on the industry to build core www.xmtraders.competitiveness and consolidate the foundation for development in the next decade will be significantly intensified, and the foresight and execution of strategic layout will become the key to corporate differentiation. ”
For listed shale oil www.xmtraders.companies, “maintaining production” has become the core goal. They will improve operating efficiency and optimize management expenses by reducing dividend payout ratios and promoting mergers and acquisitions integration, thereby hedging full-cycle production cost pressure.
Summary and technical analysis:
The current market attention has been focused on the OPEC+ online ministerial meeting held on Sunday.At the meeting, traders generally expected that the organization would continue the suspension of production increase policy established in November, and the supply-side contraction is expected to provide periodic support for oil prices.
What needs to be made clear is that the energy market will still face many black swan risks in 2026, especially the possibility of sudden geopolitical conflicts along the Caribbean Sea to Yemen. Although such uncertainties are difficult to predict, they will directly affect the restructuring of the global energy supply and demand pattern and the switching of investor risk preferences, which will then be transmitted to the asset pricing level. Geo-premium disturbances cannot be ignored.
At the same time, next week’s non-farm payrolls will announce the employment situation in the United States. The recent adjustment in oil prices may also reflect that the market has priced in advance the U.S. non-farm payrolls or the unemployment rate is lower than expected.
It should be noted that historical experience shows that geopolitical drivers during the supply and demand easing period mostly show short-term correction characteristics of "fast rise and fast fall". In the short term, we need to be wary of profit-taking pressure in the 58-60 US dollars range.
At the same time, in the face of the liquidation of oil www.xmtraders.companies caused by the drop in oil prices, oil www.xmtraders.companies may stabilize and rebound first and then the oil price bottoms out. At the same time, due to the associated mining characteristics of natural gas and crude oil, the liquidation of crude oil mining projects may affect the supply of natural gas and double-click to increase the price of natural gas.
Technically, after oil prices fell below half of the lower box, they have not rebounded. They are currently oscillating in the lower part of the lower box, reflecting the weak trend of oil prices. There is still strong support on the lower track of the box, but if the lower edge of the box, that is, the double bottom formed in April and May, is overlaid again, oil prices will most likely weaken further.
At the same time, as mentioned before, if crude oil and the US dollar index fall together, it means a more serious oversupply or insufficient demand. On the contrary, if the US dollar and crude oil rebound together, it implies that the crude oil rebound may be more sustained.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Oil prices seem to be weak, and these three major fields are making a fortune". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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