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Next week’s non-agricultural data will hit hard
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xmtraders.commentary]: Non-agricultural data will hit next week". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Next week (January 5-9), the first non-farm payrolls of the new year will be met with investors, and rapid pricing may begin on the first trading day. At the same time, the sequelae of the U.S. government shutdown are gradually fading, and the intensive release of core economic data coupled with heavy statements from Federal Reserve officials, the global market will usher in a critical window period for the reconstruction of policy expectations and the verification of economic momentum.
Monday’s data start: simultaneous verification of economic prosperity in China, the United States and Europe
On Monday (January 5), China announced the December SPGI service industry PMI. As a core indicator reflecting the expansion momentum of the service industry, its performance will be cross-verified with the service industry business activity index previously announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, providing a key basis for judging the strength of domestic demand recovery.
In the evening, the U.S. market will receive double heavy data: December CPI data will reveal the true trend of inflation. In view of the distortion of housing cost statistics due to the shutdown in November data, whether this data can confirm the downward trend of inflation has attracted much attention;
The December ISM manufacturing PMI released at the same time will jointly outline the "dual-track" operation situation of the U.S. economy together with the service industry data.
Tuesday’s Policy Statement: The speech of the FOMC’s new voting www.xmtraders.committee resonates with the data
In the early morning of Tuesday (January 6), the 2026 FOMC voting www.xmtraders.committee and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivered a speech at the American Economic Association. His remarks need to be focused on - as a core official who has released a "dovish" signal, the core focus is whether he has the possibility of turning around, and his views on the resilience of inflation and the threshold for interest rate cuts.The statement will directly affect the market’s expectations for the Fed’s policy shift.
During the day, European and American data are intensively released: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Eurozone simultaneously release the SPGI service industry PMI. Whether the British data will continue the previous trend of unexpected expansion is crucial to the trend of the pound;
December CPI data from Germany and France provide first clues to the direction of inflation in the Eurozone. In the evening, the United States will reissue its trade account for October, which will fill the gap in foreign trade data during the shutdown and reflect the actual impact of tariff policies on imports and exports.
Inflation and employment on Wednesday: core indicators of European and American economies appeared intensively
On Wednesday (January 7), Germany announced retail sales in November and unemployment rate in December. The two data reflect consumer demand and labor market conditions respectively, and are an important starting point for observing the momentum of Germany's economic recovery.
Subsequently, the Eurozone released CPI data for December, and its year-on-year increase will directly affect the pace of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision-making.
The U.S. market ushered in "three consecutive releases of employment data" that day: December ADP employment data, as a forward-looking non-agricultural indicator, will initially reveal the heat of the job market; JOLTS job vacancy data reflects the matching of supply and demand in the labor market; December ISM non-manufacturing PMI will disclose the sub-item performance of service industry employment.
In addition, the December global supply chain stress index released by the New York Fed will provide a new perspective for judging the downward slope of inflation.
Thursday’s internal and external needs to be verified: China’s import and export and U.S. employment clues
On Thursday (January 8), China released its import and export data for December, which will further clarify the foreign trade recovery trend based on the previous value performance, have a direct impact on export-oriented industry targets, and affect the valuation center of domestic www.xmtraders.companies.
The Eurozone simultaneously announced the unemployment rate in November, the consumer confidence index and the industrial climate index in December. The three data together outline the overall economic prosperity of the Eurozone.
The U.S. market focuses on the details of the job market: the number of layoffs by challenger www.xmtraders.companies in December reflects the www.xmtraders.company's willingness to employ workers, while the number of initial and continuing unemployment claims continues to track the tightness of the labor market, providing clues for early prediction of Friday's non-agricultural data.
Friday's non-agricultural ending: the first normal month of data after the shutdown sets the tone
On Friday (January 9), the global market will usher in the core focus of this week - the US non-farm employment data in December, which is also a key cashing node. Various investment varieties may start to react in advance 1-2 days before Friday.
As the first normal month of data since the U.S. government ended its shutdown on November 13, its unemployment rate and wage growth have attracted much attention. The controversial nature of the previous non-agricultural data in December makes the "reversal or continuation" of this data full of highlights.
On the same day, the December New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectations data in the United States will reflect changes in residents’ inflation confidence, while Eurozone retail sales data will supplement the picture of consumer recovery.
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