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market analysis
The "Santa Claus Market" is about to start, gold prices are approaching the 4,500 mark, and oil prices continue to be bullish
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: "Santa Claus Quote" is about to start, gold prices are approaching the 4,500 mark, and oil prices continue to be bullish." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
In early trading in the Asian market on Wednesday (December 24, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,491 per ounce. Risk aversion, expectations of a weaker US dollar, and expectations of lower interest rates provided assistance, and the price of gold was close to 4,491 US dollars per ounce. At the $500/ounce mark, U.S. crude oil traded at $58.47/barrel. Oil prices continued their upward momentum on Tuesday as the market weighed the demand outlook brought about by strong U.S. economic data and concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical risks such as Venezuela and Russia.
Stock Market
U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with major stock indexes rising across the board, boosted by strong economic data. The S&P 500 index hit a record closing high, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index rising 0.16% to close at 48,442.41 points; the S&P 500 Index rising 0.46%, closing at 6,909.79 points; the Nasdaq Index rising 0.57%, closing at 23,561.84 points.
The market rise was mainly driven by economic growth data that exceeded expectations. The U.S. Department of www.xmtraders.commerce announced that GDP in the third quarter increased by a revised 4.3% year-on-year growth rate, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2023, significantly higher than market expectations of 3.3%, mainly due to strong consumer spending. Although the release of this data was delayed due to the earlier government shutdown, it strengthened the resilience of the economy. Short-term Treasury yields rose after the data was released, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in January next year have somewhat cooled.
In terms of sectors, growth stocks performed well, with the S&P 500 growth stock index rising 0.8% and the value stock index remaining basically flat. Artificial intelligence-related stocks reversed last week's losses and extended recent gains. Among them, Nvidia’s stock price rose 3%, providing the best performance for the S&P 500 Index.Big boost; technology giants such as Amazon, Alphabet and Broadcom also generally rose by more than 1%. However, other data showed consumer confidence weakened in December on concerns about employment and income, and manufacturing output was flat in November.
As the holidays approach, market trading tends to be light and trading volume continues to shrink. All three major stock indexes were on track for their third consecutive year of gains. The historic "Santa Claus Market" period (from December 24 this year to January 5 next year) is about to begin, adding seasonal optimism to the market.
Gold Market
The precious metals market continued its strong gains on Tuesday, setting new records across the board. Spot silver rose 3%, strongly breaking through the key psychological mark of US$70 per ounce, reaching a record high of US$71.08. The cumulative increase this year has reached 145%. Spot gold prices also rose 0.8%, hitting a new intraday record of $4,497.55 an ounce.
Analysts pointed out that this epic rise in silver is rooted in the five-year market supply and demand shortage and growing industrial demand. At the same time, risk aversion, expectations of a weaker dollar and expectations of lower interest rates have also provided assistance. Zaner Metals strategists said the next target for silver is $75, but also warned that there may be a correction caused by profit taking at the end of the year.
Other precious metals also performed strongly. Spot platinum surged 6.4% to $2,255; palladium rose 5.7% to $1,859.38, hitting a three-year high. Both "sister metals" widely used in automotive catalytic converters are benefiting from the industrial demand outlook. The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the macro backdrop www.xmtraders.composed of geopolitical tensions, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and strong investment demand continue to provide strong support for the entire precious metals market.
Oil Market
Oil prices continued their upward momentum on Tuesday as the market weighed the demand outlook brought about by strong U.S. economic data and concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical risks such as Venezuela and Russia.
As of the close, Brent crude oil rose 0.5% to close at US$62.38 per barrel; US crude oil rose 0.64% to close at US$58.38 per barrel.
On the one hand, the rise in oil prices has benefited from stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth. U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter was revised upward to 4.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending, which strengthened the fundamentals of future oil demand.
On the other hand, geopolitical supply risks continue to provide support to the market. Investors are paying close attention to possible supply disruptions caused by the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers, as well as potential threats to Russian energy exports posed by Ukraine's attacks on Russian Black Sea port facilities and "shadow fleet" oil tankers.
Market analysis presents a www.xmtraders.complex mentality of long and short interweaving. PriceFuturesGroup analysts noted that the market is "trying to decide whether to be more excited about demand from strong growth or worried that the Fed will have to put the brakes on that growth." barclays bankIt is predicted in the report that although the market will be well supplied in the first half of 2026, the oil surplus will shrink to only 700,000 barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2026, and long-term supply disruptions may further tighten the market.
Foreign Market
The U.S. dollar exchange rate continued its decline on Tuesday. Although the economic growth data released by the United States was strong, market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates next year still dominated the foreign exchange market sentiment, pushing the U.S. dollar index to its lowest level since early October.
Data show that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, significantly higher than market expectations. However, the data only briefly pared the dollar's losses and failed to reverse its downward trend. Market analysts believe that the strong growth data strengthens the Fed's view of keeping interest rates unchanged in the short term (such as the January meeting), but it does not change the market's general expectation of two interest rate cuts in 2026.
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2% to 98.02, on track for its biggest annual drop since 2017. Analysts at SilverGoldBull pointed out that the market expects more signs of labor market weakness next year, which may force the Federal Reserve to make deeper concessions in interest rate cuts than currently indicated.
As for the yen, despite the strong signal of intervention in the foreign exchange market from the Japanese authorities, the yen still strengthened against the US dollar, rising 0.5% to 156.26 yen. Analysts interpreted the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike last week as "not hawkish" and believed that it failed to meet market expectations for the start of a rapid interest rate hike cycle, causing some investors who had bet on the rise of the yen to close their positions and leave.
Other major currencies generally strengthened against the US dollar. The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1779; the pound rose 0.2%, hitting a 12-week high of $1.35; the dollar fell 0.4% against the Swiss franc to 0.7886 Swiss francs. The market's dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve have overshadowed the impact of strong GDP data and continued to put pressure on the dollar.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: "Santa Claus Market" is about to start, gold prices are approaching the 4,500 mark, and oil prices continue to be bullish". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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