Oil prices continue to be bullish, the "Santa Claus market" is about to begin, and gold prices approach the 4,500 mark

Basic news

On Wednesday (December 24, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,491 per ounce, with risk aversion, expectations of a weaker US dollar and expectations of falling interest rates providing assistance. Gold prices are approaching the $4,500/ounce mark, and U.S. crude oil is trading at $58.47/barrel. Oil prices continued their upward momentum on Tuesday, as the market is simultaneously weighing the demand outlook brought about by strong U.S. economic data and concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical risks such as Venezuela and Russia.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with major stock indexes rising across the board, boosted by strong economic data. The S&P 500 index hit a record closing high, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index rising 0.16% to close at 48,442.41 points; the S&P 500 Index rising 0.46%, closing at 6,909.79 points; the Nasdaq Index rising 0.57%, closing at 23,561.84 points.

The market rise was mainly driven by economic growth data that exceeded expectations. The U.S. Department of www.xmtraders.commerce announced that GDP in the third quarter increased by a revised 4.3% year-on-year growth rate, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2023, significantly higher than market expectations of 3.3%, mainly due to strong consumer spending. Although the release of this data was delayed due to the earlier government shutdown, it strengthened the resilience of the economy. Short-term Treasury yields rose after the data was released, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in January next year have somewhat cooled.

In terms of sectors, growth stocks performed well, with the S&P 500 growth stock index rising 0.8% and the value stock index remaining basically flat. Artificial intelligence-related stocks reversed last week's losses and extended recent gains. Among them, Nvidia’s stock price rose 3%, providing an improvement to the S&P 500 index.Provided the biggest boost; technology giants such as Amazon, Alphabet and Broadcom also generally rose by more than 1%. However, other data showed consumer confidence weakened in December on concerns about employment and income, and manufacturing output was flat in November.

As the holidays approach, market trading tends to be light and trading volume continues to shrink. All three major stock indexes were on track for their third consecutive year of gains. The historic "Santa Claus Market" period (from December 24 this year to January 5 next year) is about to begin, adding seasonal optimism to the market.

Gold Market

The precious metals market continued its strong gains on Tuesday, setting new records across the board. Spot silver rose 3%, strongly breaking through the key psychological mark of US$70 per ounce, reaching a record high of US$71.08. The cumulative increase this year has reached 145%. Spot gold prices also rose 0.8%, hitting a new intraday record of $4,497.55 an ounce.

Analysts pointed out that this epic rise in silver is rooted in the five-year market supply and demand shortage and growing industrial demand. At the same time, risk aversion, expectations of a weaker dollar and expectations of lower interest rates have also provided assistance. Zaner Metals strategists said the next target for silver is $75, but also warned that there may be a correction caused by profit taking at the end of the year.

Other precious metals also performed strongly. Spot platinum surged 6.4% to $2,255; palladium rose 5.7% to $1,859.38, hitting a three-year high. Both "sister metals" widely used in automotive catalytic converters are benefiting from the industrial demand outlook. The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the macro backdrop www.xmtraders.composed of geopolitical tensions, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and strong investment demand continue to provide strong support for the entire precious metals market.

Oil Market

Oil prices continued their upward momentum on Tuesday as the market weighed the demand outlook brought about by strong U.S. economic data and concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical risks such as Venezuela and Russia.

As of the close, Brent crude oil rose 0.5% to close at US$62.38 per barrel; US crude oil rose 0.64% to close at US$58.38 per barrel.

On the one hand, the rise in oil prices has benefited from stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth. U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter was revised upward to 4.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending, which strengthened the fundamentals of future oil demand.

On the other hand, geopolitical supply risks continue to provide support to the market. Investors are paying close attention to possible supply disruptions caused by the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers, as well as potential threats to Russian energy exports posed by Ukraine's attacks on Russian Black Sea port facilities and "shadow fleet" oil tankers.

Market analysis presents a www.xmtraders.complex mentality of long and short interweaving. Analysts at PriceFuturesGroup noted that the market is "trying to decide whether to be more excited about demand from strong growth or concerned that the Fed will have to put the brakes on that growth."". Barclays Bank predicted in a report that although the market will be well supplied in the first half of 2026, the oil surplus will shrink to only 700,000 barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2026, and long-term supply disruptions may further tighten the market.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar exchange rate continued its decline on Tuesday, despite strong economic growth data released by the United States. Market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates next year still dominate the currency market sentiment, pushing the U.S. dollar index to its lowest level since early October.

Data showed that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, significantly higher than market expectations. However, the data only briefly narrowed the dollar's decline and failed to reverse its decline. Market analysts believe that the strong growth data strengthens the Fed's view of keeping interest rates unchanged in the short term (such as the January meeting), but does not change the market's consensus expectation of two interest rate cuts in 2026.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2% to 98.02, which is expected to record its largest annual decline since 2017. Analysts at dBull pointed out that the market expects more signs of labor market weakness next year, which may force the Federal Reserve to make deeper concessions in interest rate cuts than currently hinted.

In terms of the yen, despite strong signals from Japanese authorities to intervene in the currency market, the yen strengthened against the dollar, rising 0.5% to 156.26 yen. The central bank's interest rate hike last week was interpreted as "not hawkish", believing that it failed to meet market expectations for the start of a rapid interest rate hike cycle, causing some investors who had bet on the rise of the yen to close their positions and leave.

Other major currencies generally strengthened against the US dollar. The euro rose 0.2% to US$1.1779; the pound rose 0.2%, hitting a 12-week high of US$1.35. Yuan; USD/CHF fell 0.4% to 0.7886 Swiss francs. The market’s dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve overshadowed the impact of strong GDP data and continued to put pressure on the US dollar.

International News

Trump: Anyone who disagrees with his views will not become the chairman of the Federal Reserve

On the 23rd local time, US President Trump. Said that anyone who disagrees with his views will never become the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Trump said that he hopes that the new Fed chairman will lower interest rates if the market is doing well, rather than destroying the market "for no reason." According to relevant legal provisions, the US president must obtain approval from the Senate after nominating the Fed chairman. Faced with intense criticism from Trump for a long time, Powell refused to resign and emphasized the independence of the Fed's monetary policy. Trump recently said in an interview that former Federal Reserve Board Governor Kevin Warsh is at the top of his list of candidates for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. He also said that both Warsh and White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett are good candidates.

After strong resistance from farmers, the British Prime Minister makes concessions on the inheritance tax issue

The Labor government led by British Prime Minister Starmer has raised the threshold for inheritance tax on agricultural property from 1 million pounds (about 1.4 million U.S. dollars) to 2.5 million pounds. The change means married couples or civil partners can pass on a farm or other business property worth a www.xmtraders.combined £5 million without paying inheritance tax. This www.xmtraders.comes after the government was forced to make a U-turn after initially proposing cuts to farm tax breaks, sparking outrage among farmers across the UK.

The French National Assembly passed a special bill to ensure the operation of government funds until January next year

On December 23, local time, the French National Assembly passed a special bill to temporarily extend the 2025 budget until January next year to maintain the operation of government funds. The 496 members present at the vote unanimously approved the text. The special bill will still need to pass the Senate later in the day to fully take effect. Since the French Parliament failed to reach an agreement on the 2026 national budget, the French government earlier introduced this special bill to maintain the country's financial operations while the official budget has not yet been passed.

The Danish Foreign Minister warned Trump not to get involved in Greenland and summoned the US ambassador to www.xmtraders.communicate

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Luck Rasmussen said that Denmark will not give in to Trump’s request to hand over Greenland and has summoned the US ambassador to Denmark to demand an explanation for the president’s relevant remarks. Luck held talks with U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Ken Howery in Copenhagen on Monday after Trump announced plans to name Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry as special envoy to Greenland. Greenland is an autonomous territory under the Kingdom of Denmark. Luck said in an interview with local TV station TV2 late on Monday night that the meeting was both about saying "no" and drawing a clear red line, and also about demanding an explanation. "An attack on any part of the Kingdom of Denmark is an attack on the entire Kingdom," he said. ”

For the first time since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Ukrainian Central Election www.xmtraders.commission resumed the operation of the electoral register

The chairman of the parliamentary group of Ukraine’s ruling party Servant of the People, Arahamia, said on the 23rd local time that the Central Election www.xmtraders.commission of Ukraine passed relevant resolutions on the same day to resume the operation of the electoral register, creating conditions for preparations for possible elections. This is also the first time that Ukraine has resumed the operation of the “National Voter Register” since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Arahamia revealed that the central election The www.xmtraders.committee passed a special resolution that day to authorize the restart of the registration system to update data on large-scale population movements, casualties and migration caused by conflicts. He said, "This is the legal and technical basis for holding any election."

The United States issued H-1. The new B visa rules give priority to high-paying applicants

According to CCTV News, on December 23, local time, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued new rules to officially replace the original random lottery system for H-1B visas with a "weighted selection" mechanism, giving priority to high-income applicants.Visas are issued to applicants for salaried positions. The rule will go into effect on February 27, 2026, before the start of the spring 2026 H-1B visa application season.

Japan’s total budget for the new fiscal year and its defense budget may both hit new highs

The preparation of Japan’s fiscal year 2026 budget draft is currently in the final stages, and the total budget may reach 122 trillion yen, approximately 5.5 trillion yuan, setting another record high. Specific details of the budget show that in this budget, the defense budget will reach 9 trillion yen, approximately 405.6 billion yuan, which is also a new high for Japan's initial defense budget in each fiscal year. From December 23 to 24, Japan’s Ministry of Finance will consult with various departments on the draft budget for fiscal year 2026, and make a formal decision at the cabinet meeting held on the 26th. The total amount of this budget may reach 122 trillion yen, setting a record high.

The United States is still in arrears with its UN dues. The United States still has not paid a penny

On December 22, local time, the spokesperson of the United Nations Secretary-General Dujarric confirmed in response to a reporter’s question that the United States still has not paid its arrears in UN dues. To describe the current predicament of the United Nations as “very difficult” is an understatement. United Nations Secretary-General Guterres said earlier this month that the total arrears of membership dues last year and this year reached US$1.586 billion. The United States is the largest defaulter. When answering reporters' questions at the beginning of the month, Dujarric confirmed that the United States had not paid any outstanding dues recently. Now three weeks have passed, and the United States still has "not paid a penny." According to previous statistics, as of the end of September this year, the United States was in arrears of approximately US$1.5 billion in dues.

Domestic News

Sanya duty-free shop sales have exceeded 100 million yuan for the fifth consecutive day

Since the Hainan Free Trade Port launched the island-wide customs seal, Sanya’s duty-free consumer market has continued to boom. The reporter learned from the Sanya Municipal www.xmtraders.commerce Bureau that from December 18th to 22nd, the city’s duty-free shop sales totaled 535 million yuan, and single-day sales exceeded the 100 million yuan mark for five consecutive days. Entering Sanya International Duty Free City, newly added duty-free categories such as pet supplies, portable musical instruments, ceramics, silk, and tea are neatly displayed, attracting many customers to stop for consultation and selection. In recent days, duty-free shops in Sanya have launched promotional activities to benefit consumers. On the first day of customs closure on December 18, the number of customers entering the Sanya International Duty Free City exceeded 36,000, a year-on-year increase of over 60%, and sales increased by 85% year-on-year.

The work on the filing and review of fiscal budget matters has achieved a good start

The report of the Budget Working www.xmtraders.committee of the National People’s Congress Standing www.xmtraders.committee on the filing and review of fiscal budget matters in 2025 was submitted to the National People’s Congress Standing www.xmtraders.committee for review on December 22. According to the report, in 2025, the Budget Working www.xmtraders.committee will work closely with relevant departments to achieve a good start in the filing and review of fiscal budget matters. The National People's Congress is empowered by the Constitution and law to carry out the filing and review of fiscal budget matters.An important supervisory authority of the Standing www.xmtraders.committee is an important measure to strengthen the review and supervision of the National People's Congress's budget and final accounts, as well as the supervision of state-owned assets management and government debt management. The report stated that the State Council has performed its duties in accordance with the law and has submitted 20 filing reports on fiscal budget matters to the Standing www.xmtraders.committee of the National People's Congress this year. The Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, the General Administration of Customs and other relevant departments of the State Council shall, based on their own responsibilities, conscientiously carry out specific work such as filing, explanation and explanation. The Ministry of Finance strives to ensure that "everything is necessary" for fiscal budget matters, does specific work in accordance with regulations, and continuously improves the standardization of submitted materials for filing.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Oil prices continue to be bullish, the "Santa Claus Market" is about to start, and the price of gold is approaching the 4,500 mark." It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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