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Gold prices strengthen as dollar weakens, Fed reappoints 11 regional Fed chairs
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xmtraders.commentary]: The weakening of the U.S. dollar drives strong gold prices, and the Federal Reserve re-appoints 11 regional Fed chairs." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
In early trading in Asia on Friday, December 12, spot gold was trading around US$4,280 per ounce. After the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut, the precious metal performed strongly on Thursday, with the price of gold rising to its highest level in more than a month to US$4,285.75 per ounce. Silver hit a record high of $64.28 per ounce, mainly driven by the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index fell to an eight-week low that day; U.S. crude oil traded around $57.93 per barrel. Oil prices fell on Thursday, mainly due to the dual pressures of changes in the geopolitical situation and excess U.S. fuel inventories.
The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies for a second consecutive day on Thursday, extending a decline triggered by the Federal Reserve's policy statement and economic forecasts that were less hawkish than expected. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged boosted the Swiss franc.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, but its policy stance was not as tough as some market participants feared. This caused the dollar to extend its decline, falling to a more than two-month low of $1.1740 against the euro, and to 0.7947 Swiss franc, its lowest since mid-November. The pound and yen also performed strongly against the dollar.
Analyses believe that the Federal Reserve has reserved the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the future, while the monetary policy expectations of other major economies (such as Australia, Canada and the Eurozone) are turning hawkish. This contrast has weakened the relative attractiveness of the US dollar.
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States surged by 44,000 last week, the largest weekly increase in four and a half years, exacerbating concerns about an economic slowdown and putting pressure on the dollar.
The Federal Reserve announced that it will begin purchasing approximately US$40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds on the 12th to manage market liquidity. thisThis move, along with other operations, is expected to inject approximately US$55 billion into the financial system, which will be negative for the US dollar.
The Swiss National Bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 0% and pointed out that the recent reduction of U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods has improved the economic outlook. This decision supported the strength of the Swiss franc, with the US dollar falling 0.6% against the Swiss franc on the day.
Asian Markets
Australia’s November labor force data brought a downward surprise, with the number of employed people falling by 2,130, lower than the expected growth of 20,000. This weakness was partly offset by a sharp decline in full-time jobs of 56,500, partially offset by an increase in part-time jobs of 35,200.
Despite the weaker overall data, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, higher than the 4.4% expected. The unemployment rate has remained at 4.3% in five of the past six months, reflecting that the labor market is relaxing but not deteriorating sharply. The participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 66.7%, indicating a slowdown in labor force participation.
The number of monthly working hours was unchanged from the previous month, but still increased by 1.2% year-on-year, indicating that despite weak employment growth, total labor input is still moderately resilient.
European market
The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy interest rate at 0.00%, in line with widespread expectations, and reiterated that it would intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. The hold reflects the central bank's assessment that current conditions are insufficient to support a shift, despite lower-than-expected inflation.
The Swiss National Bank pointed out in a statement that inflation has been slightly lower than expected in recent months, but emphasized that medium-term pressures are "virtually unchanged" from September. Conditional inflation forecasts fell slightly in the short term, but otherwise were little changed. Based on the assumption that the policy rate is 0% throughout the forecast period, the bank expects inflation to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027.
Switzerland’s economic outlook has “slightly improved”, helped by lower U.S. tariffs and a slightly improved global environment. The Swiss National Bank currently projects GDP growth of just under 1.5% in 2025 and about 1% in 2026, but cautioned that the unemployment rate may be slightly higher.
U.S. market
In the week ended December 6, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose by 44,000 to 236,000, higher than the expected 205,000. The four-week moving average number of first-time applicants rose by 2,000 to 217,000.
The number of continuing applicants fell by 99,000 to 1.838 million in the week ended November 29. The four-week moving average of continuing applications fell by 17,000 to 1.918 million.
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