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Is an interest rate cut a life-threatening talisman? Market worries: Once the Fed takes action, it may expose the "hidden disease" of the U.S. economy and drag down crude oil
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Will the interest rate cut become a reminder? Market worries: Once the Federal Reserve takes action, it may expose the "hidden disease" of the U.S. economy and drag down crude oil." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday, international oil prices continued their decline, giving up all last week's gains. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is approaching. At the same time, due to the dual pressure of the recovery of Iraqi supply and the reduction of Saudi oil prices, U.S. crude oil (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures fell further.
The oil market is currently experiencing significant supply pressure. The core drivers are the resumption of production in Iraq's large oil fields and Saudi Arabia's proactive price adjustments. Although expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to ferment, in the short term, this good news may not be able to quickly reverse the downward trend caused by the imbalance between supply and demand.
Recent mainstream trading has basically centered around the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. The reversal of the previous interest rate cut probability from 30% to 80% partly reflects the concerns of the U.S. labor market. If the interest rate cut is successful and Powell's speech is not hawkish enough, it will intensify the market's concerns about the U.S. economy and affect the process of world economic recovery, ultimately affecting oil prices. Oil prices are also currently reflecting this problem.
Limitations of policy support: realistic constraints on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations
The market is generally betting that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut this week, with a pricing implied probability of about 84%. This policy expectation has become one of the important logics supporting oil prices.
Normally, a low interest rate environment will boost economic activity, thereby boosting oil demand. This is also the core logic of traders hoping that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to improve oil prices.
However, some analysts are cautious about its direct boost to oil prices in the short term.
From the perspective of trading practice, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as scheduled in the short term, its boosting effect on crude oil demand will not be realized quickly and will not be enough to reverse the current trend.The current market structure is dominated by oversupply.
There is a time lag in the transmission of interest rate policy to crude oil demand, and the core contradiction in the current market is still on the supply side. It is difficult for a single favorable policy to change the fundamental situation of supply and demand imbalance.
Even cutting interest rates too smoothly is directly equivalent to announcing that the domestic economy of the United States may have a big problem, and the world economic recovery process will be greatly www.xmtraders.compromised, thus putting pressure on oil prices.
Double suppression on the supply side: The impact of Iraq's resumption of production and Saudi Arabia's price cuts
The abundant supply signal recently released by the crude oil market is the core logic leading to the decline in oil prices.
On Monday, the Iraqi Ministry of Energy officially confirmed that the West Qurna 2 oil field, which had been suspended due to oil pipeline leakage, has resumed production, with daily output returning to the normal level of about 460,000 barrels.
As one of the world's top oil fields, news of the oil field's restart instantly broke through the market's fragile defenses, directly causing Brent and WTI crude oil futures to fall by more than $1 in a single day. At the same time, Saudi Arabia last week lowered the official selling price of its core crude oil grades to Asia to a five-year low.
Coupled with the continued accumulation of global crude oil inventories, the simultaneous weakening of monthly spreads and refinery crack spreads, the lack of support on both ends of the oil market has become clear. Analysts at Ritterbusch pointed out that the market's bearish sentiment on the balance of global crude oil supply and demand is continuing to rise, especially in the U.S. market, where oversupply pressure is expected to extend to the first quarter of 2026.
Key data highlights short-term resilience and becomes a marginal trading variable
Although supply-side negatives dominate the market, the latest U.S. inventory data injects short-term resilience into oil prices and becomes a core marginal variable that traders pay attention to. Data show that WTI and Brent crude oil prices have shown slight fluctuations. Although gasoline and distillate inventories have increased, they are still below the five-year average, providing a certain buffer for oil prices.
In the week ending December 5, U.S. crude oil inventories dropped significantly by 4.8 million barrels, www.xmtraders.compared with a decrease of 2.48 million barrels in the previous week. The net increase in crude oil inventories so far this year is only 121,000 barrels. The inventory decline exceeded market expectations, alleviating some concerns about oversupply.
In the same period, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 200,000 barrels to 411.9 million barrels. The inventory replenishment action provided mild support to market sentiment. In terms of production, U.S. crude oil production rebounded slightly to 13.815 million barrels per day in the week of November 28, an increase of 252,000 barrels per day from the beginning of the year. The steady recovery in production still poses potential pressure on oil prices.
In terms of inventory structure, gasoline inventories increased by 7 million barrels that week and 3.14 million barrels in the previous week, which are currently 2% lower than the five-year average; distillate oil inventories increased by 1 million barrels and increased by 2.88 million barrels in the previous week, which is 7% lower than the five-year average. The relatively low level of refined oil inventories limits the downside of oil prices.
Cushing inventory, the delivery location for U.S. crude oil, decreased by 890,000 barrels, a decrease of 89,000 barrels in the previous week. The decline in inventory at the delivery location has a short-term impact on WTI crude oil prices.boost.
Geographical variables: the two-way impact of the sluggish negotiations in Ukraine
The pace of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations is still the biggest geopolitical uncertainty affecting oil prices. Its direction directly affects the supply map of the global energy market and has become a risk factor that cannot be ignored in crude oil trading.
The current negotiation process is still sluggish, and there is still no consensus on core issues such as security in Kiev and the status of the land occupied by Russia.
Ukrainian President Zelensky held talks with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Andreas Merz in London on Monday to discuss the latest draft peace plan aimed at ending the crisis in Ukraine.
But Zelensky is facing continued pressure from the United States to accept major territorial concessions and other www.xmtraders.compromise conditions that may include Trump's peace plan.
In this www.xmtraders.complex geopolitical game, the direction of oil price fluctuations is deeply tied to the outcome of negotiations.
Institutional view:
Tim Watt, chief market analyst at KCM Trading www.xmtraders.company, pointed out that if the negotiations break down, the rebound in geo-risk premium will drive the oil price to rebound; conversely, if the negotiations make substantial progress and Russia resumes global crude oil supply, oil prices will face further downward pressure.
www.xmtraders.commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dar further explained that the ceasefire agreement poses a significant downside risk to current oil prices, while the continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure is a potential upward driver.
However, Dahl emphasized that the market generally expects that Russia will eventually circumvent sanctions and resume oil exports through multiple channels. Therefore, in the medium term, concerns about oversupply will most likely www.xmtraders.come to fruition. This expectation has been reflected in current transaction pricing in advance.
Summary and technical analysis:
Generally speaking, the current drop in oil prices is essentially the market’s rapid feedback on changes in the supply side. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the bad game between inventory data and the supply side. Whether the inventory decline can be sustained and whether the resumption of production in Iraq exceeds expectations will be the key to short-term oil price fluctuations.
The mid-term trend still depends on whether the Fed's policy stimulus can effectively improve demand-side performance. If demand recovery is less than expected, oil prices may continue to be in a volatile and weakening range.
For traders, they need to be alert to the downside risks if the core logic of oversupply remains unchanged, pay attention to short-term fluctuation opportunities after geopolitical events and policies are implemented, and seize the trading window brought about by marginal changes in supply and demand in a market where multiple variables are intertwined.
The January futures contract of U.S. crude oil shows that oil prices fell to the support of 58.60. At the same time, the 5, 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages have all begun to be short. If they cannot rebound within two days, the moving averages will diverge downward, and oil prices may test around 57.25.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Will interest rate cuts become a reminder? Market worries: Once the Federal Reserve takes action, it may expose the "hidden disease" of the US economy and drag down crude oil". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled by the editor of XM Foreign ExchangeEditor, I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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