Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- Foreign exchange practical strategy on October 23
- The U.S. dollar has just taken a breather, and the Canadian dollar has shown its
- Short-term operation guide for major currencies on November 3
- The US dollar's "soft data" is strong and hides crises, beware of "hard data" an
- The U.S. dollar's rise paused, and spot gold fluctuated sharply. The U.S. Depart
market news
The performance of the Swiss franc under negative GDP growth, the safe-haven attribute is still there, but the foundation has quietly changed?
Wonderful introduction:
Out of the thorns, in front of you is a broad road covered with flowers; when you climb to the top of the mountain, you will see the green mountains at your feet. In this world, if one star falls, it cannot dim the starry sky; if one flower withers, it cannot make the entire spring barren.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xmtraders.commentary]: The performance of the Swiss franc under negative GDP growth, the hedging attribute is still there, but the foundation has quietly changed?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
During the European session on Monday, December 1, the US dollar against the Swiss franc was trading around 0.8030, at the neutral position of the recent trading range, reflecting that the market continues to weigh the fundamental differences between the two currencies. It is worth noting that Switzerland’s latest third-quarter GDP data has attracted attention, and its economy has experienced a technical contraction, which has become an important variable affecting the short-term trend of the Swiss franc.
According to the final official data, Switzerland’s economy fell by 0.5% in the third quarter, slightly lower than market expectations of a 0.4% decline. This is also the country’s first negative growth since the first half of 2023. This data is basically consistent with previous preliminary estimates, showing the significant impact of changes in the external trade environment on Switzerland, an export-oriented economy. The analysis pointed out that the United States has imposed additional tariffs on some imported goods since early August, with the tax rate once rising to 39%. However, Switzerland failed to obtain the same preferential treatment as other major trading partners, resulting in its export www.xmtraders.competitiveness being suppressed. The drag effect of net exports on economic growth is particularly obvious, which is in sharp contrast to the pull effect brought by front-loaded purchases in the first quarter of this year. Although the United States and Switzerland have reached a preliminary agreement and relevant tariffs are expected to be gradually reduced, the short-term impact on the industrial chain and corporate confidence will still take time to digest. From a macro perspective, this economic contraction further highlights the www.xmtraders.complex situation faced by the SNB in formulating monetary policy - it must deal with the pressure of slowing growth while taking into account the inflation control target. In contrast, the Federal Reserve's recent policy stance has remained prudent. Although it has not ruled out the possibility of further interest rate adjustments in the future, it has generally sent a cautious signal.
A closer look at the Swiss economic structure reveals that its growthMomentum has become increasingly concentrated in specific industries in recent years, especially pharmaceuticals. Data show that since around 2014, the growth trend of the added value of the pharmaceutical industry has gradually separated from other industrial sectors and has become a key engine supporting the overall economic performance. This structural dependence may amplify growth dividends during the procyclical stage, but it can also easily exacerbate vulnerability in a headwind environment. Currently, the U.S. government's policy guidance to promote the expansion of local pharmaceutical production capacity has prompted many large Swiss pharmaceutical www.xmtraders.companies to announce additional investment plans in the United States, and accordingly reduce their R&D and production layout in the country. Although the actual implementation of this type of capacity transfer will take several years, in the long run it may weaken Switzerland's industrial foundation and current account surplus capacity, thereby affecting the intrinsic value support of the Swiss franc. However, the market's pricing of such structural changes has not yet been fully reflected, and is more reflected in medium- and long-term exchange rate expectations.
Market Performance
The Swiss franc did not depreciate significantly after the GDP data was released last Friday. Instead, it strengthened slightly against the euro, reflecting a certain degree of safe-haven buying support. This may indicate that in an environment where the global economic outlook is becoming more www.xmtraders.complex, traders still recognize the Swiss franc as a traditional safe-haven currency. However, the performance of this risk-averse attribute is often conditional and phased, and cannot be continuously realized under all risk scenarios.
Looking at the daily line, the US dollar against the Swiss franc fluctuated higher after establishing a stage low around 0.7870, reaching a maximum of 0.8123, forming a relatively clear upper pressure zone, and then fell again under pressure near 0.8101. It has now retreated to above 0.8000 and consolidated repeatedly. The current price is about 0.8025. The overall price shows a sideways digestion structure after falling from the high. The 0.8000 line in the figure coincides with the early intensive trading area, and is regarded as the balance zone of long and short forces in the short term. If it continues to fluctuate within a narrow range around this level, it means that the market sentiment is neutral and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.
The MACD indicator is glued near the zero axis, DIFF and DEA almost overlap, and the columnar line gradually shortens after turning from positive to negative, showing that the early upward momentum has significantly attenuated, and the new trend direction is not yet clear. RSI remains fluctuating around 50. The early adjustment to a high level has been basically www.xmtraders.completed. It is neither significantly overbought nor oversold in the short term. The price is more likely to be driven by macro news and the overall strength of the US dollar. Taken together, the current stage is more like a consolidation and rebalancing range after the previous rally. If it breaks above 0.8100 or falls below 0.8000 in the future, it will be interpreted as the boundary of the range has been broken, thus providing a new reference for the market fluctuation space.
Taken together
The current operating logic of the US dollar against the Swiss franc is mainly shaped by three factors: first, the fundamental pressure brought about by the weakening of Switzerland’s domestic economic growth momentum; second, the spillover effect of global trade policy changes on export-oriented economies; third, the evolution of interest rate differentials in the context of the differentiation of major central bank monetary policies. In the short term, as the U.S.-Switzerland tariff issue initially eases, market focus may turn to the Swiss National Bank's next policy direction and its assessment of the economic outlook.. If subsequent data shows that domestic demand continues to be weak, the possibility of the bank releasing a more dovish policy signal cannot be ruled out, thus providing upward thrust for USD/CHF. On the other hand, if inflationary pressures rise again or financial market volatility intensifies, the Swiss franc may regain the favor of safe-haven buying. It is worth noting that seasonal factors may also play a role. Institutional position adjustments and liquidity contraction at the end of the year often exacerbate exchange rate volatility, and changes in transaction structure need to be taken into consideration.
Generally speaking, the current dominant narrative in the foreign exchange market still does not break away from the framework of "growth differences" and "policy path differences". Although the US dollar is temporarily balanced against the Swiss franc, the game of long and short forces behind it is quietly evolving. The Swiss economy's structural challenges and external dependence make it more sensitive to changes in geopolitical trade, while the relative strength of the U.S. dollar needs to be based on more solid fundamentals and yield advantages.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market www.xmtraders.commentary]: The performance of the Swiss franc under negative GDP growth. The hedging attribute is still there, but the foundation has quietly changed?" It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Only the strong know how to fight; the weak are not even qualified to fail, but are born to be conquered. Hurry up and study the next content!
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here